Tag Archive: Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 24, Part 2: Peering Behind The (Unemployment Rate) Curtain

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK...

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Powell Would Ask For His Money Back, If The Fed Did Money

Since the unnecessary destruction brought about by GFC2 in March 2020, there have been two detectable, short run trendline upward moves in nominal Treasury yields. Both were predictably classified across the entire financial media as the guaranteed first steps toward the “inevitable” BOND ROUT!!!!

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Writing Rebound in Italian

As the calendar turned to September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new guidelines expanding and extending existing moratoriums previously put in place to stop evictions during the pandemic.

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This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…

After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke.

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Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?

Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020 (VIDEO)

Monthly macro monitor review of August 2020 with Bob Williams and Joe Calhoun.

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Meaning Mexico

It took some doing, and some time, but Mexico has managed to bring its car production back up to more normal levels. For two months, there had been practically zero automaking in one of the biggest auto-producing nations. Getting back near where things left off, however, isn’t exactly a “V” shaped recovery; it’s only halfway.

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*These* Are The Real Huge Jobs Numbers, And They Will Make Your Blood Run Cold

There is simply no way to spin these figures as anything good. Not just the usual ones were talking about here, but more so some new data that you probably haven’t seen before. Beginning with the regular, it doesn’t matter that the level of initial jobless claims has declined substantially over the past few weeks

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future.

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Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

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It Was Bad In The Other Sense, So Now What?

According to the latest figures, Japan has tallied 56,074 total coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, leading to the death of an estimated 1,103 Japanese citizens. Out of a total population north of 125 million, it’s hugely incongruous.

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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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A Second JOLTS

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice.

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Shoe V arning

It’s no wonder we’re obsessed with shoes these days. Even the V-people, as I’ll call them, keep one wary eye glued looking behind them. Survivor’s euphoria means a lot of potentially bad things, only beginning with a false sense of survivor-hood.

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Purchasing Managers Indigestion

There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market.

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US Stall? Only Half The Imagined “V” May Indicate One, Too

These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems to think it does.

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