Tag Archive: Featured

Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2008-2020
Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

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Our Systemic Drift to Collapse

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

How systems collapse
Thus do the lazy complacent passengers drift inexorably toward the cataracts of collapse just ahead. The boat ride down to the waterfall of systemic collapse is not dramatic, it's lazy drifting: a lazy complacency that doing more of what worked in the past will work again, and an equally lazy disregard for how far the system has drifted from the point when things actually worked.

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Where Has All the Carry Gone?

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

Greater China EM Carry, 2000-2020
Despite broad-based dollar weakness, EM currencies have not fully participated in the risk on environment that’s now in place. The good news is that fundamentals matter again. The bad news is that there are a lot of EM countries with bad fundamentals, and the secular decline in carry no longer gives these weaklings any cover.

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As the Bubble Slowly Pops, the Economic Chain Reaction Is Now in Progress

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

Effective Federal Funds Rate
Much has been written about the economic consequences of covid-19, yet, just as in many of the analyses of the Great Depression and the 2008 crisis, the years of accumulating debt preceding the event do not attract the attention they deserve.

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Calculating GDP Correctly

2020-08-21

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2020-08-21

There are many reasons we should be skeptical of the GDP statistic. But it is nonetheless important to understand how it is calculated.

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FX Daily, August 20: FOMC Minutes Spur Profit-Taking

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

Overview: The FOMC minutes depicted a Federal Reserve that appeared to be not quite ready to take fresh initiatives, whether it is yield curve control or changing the composition or quantities of its bond purchases.  This unleashed profit-taking on some of the large moves in equities, the dollar, and gold.

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Swiss labor force survey in the 2nd quarter of 2020: labor supply

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2015-Q2 2020
The number of employed persons in Switzerland fell by 1.6% (–82 000) between the 2nd quarter 2019 and the 2nd quarter 2020. Furthermore, the actual weekly hours per employed person declined by 9.5%.

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Neo-banks challenging Swiss financial sector

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

New digital banks are popping up in Switzerland without a single branch or counter.  One of them, Zurich-based Neon, is staking its success on doing more with less and has attracted 30,000 customers.

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Cool Video: TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade.  It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback's two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it.

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Warren Buffett Shorts The Economy, 18 August

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

Silver basis price
It must be Monday, because the price of silver skyrocketed. From $26.10, it shot up to $27.50, or +5.4%. The last time we wrote about silver was after its crash to $25. Silver is now priced 10% above that low point.

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The Debt-Inflation Spiral Is Driving up the Demand for Gold

2020-08-20

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2020-08-20

Comex Gold, 2019-2020
Measured in dollars, the current bull market for gold started in December 2015, since which its price in dollars has almost doubled. Other than the odd headline when gold exceeded its previous September 2011 high of $1,920, only gold bugs seem to be excited.

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As Markets Crashed, The Swiss National Bank Went On A Tech Stock Buying Spree

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

Swiss National Bank US Stock Holdings, 2014-2020
It used to be a running joke among traders that when markets crash, central banks step in - either directly or in the case of the Fed indirectly via Citadel - and buy stocks to prop up the market and shore up confidence. That joke is now the truth.

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FX Daily, August 19: US Equities Outperform but Does Little for the Heavy Greenback

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 19
Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new all-time highs yesterday, but the continued outperformance of US equities have failed to lend the dollar much support.  It was sold to new lows for the year yesterday against the euro, sterling, the Swedish krona, and the Australian dollar. 

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Switzerland adds 11 more nations to its compulsory quarantine list

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

From 20 August 2020, people entering Switzerland from Andorra, Belgium, Monaco and 50 other nations must quarantine for 10 days. Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) recently added 11 places to its existing list of regions where there is an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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How I built my own Swiss watch – in a day

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

Imagine assembling your own Swiss mechanical watch and taking it home with you at the end of the day. swissinfo.ch tried out the popular new concept run by Jura start-up Initium.

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The Empire Will Strike Back: Dollar Supremacy Is the Fed’s Imperial Mandate

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

Triffin's Paradox demands painful trade-offs to issue a reserve currency, and it demands the issuing central bank serve two competing audiences and markets. Judging by the headlines and pundit chatter, the U.S. dollar is about to slide directly to zero. This sense of certitude is interesting, given that no empire prospered by devaluing its currency. 

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Gold doing what it does best – Part II

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

While the economic forces that drive this rush to precious metals are clearly understandable, there are other, deeper and less obvious factors that must also be taken into account. This “fear of uncertainty”, which pushes demand for gold higher as it has done so many times in the past, is different this time.

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MMT Follow-up: A Framework for Money, Inflation, and Debt

2020-08-19

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2020-08-19

As a follow-up to his discussion on MMT with Rohan Grey (in ep. 130), Bob goes solo to explain the basic cash balance framework for thinking about money, inflation, and debt. Specifically, Bob will explain why he thinks it's far more important to know how the government finances a deficit rather than knowing what it spends the money on.

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FX Daily, August 18: Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold

2020-08-18

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2020-08-18

The NASDAQ rallied 1% yesterday to record highs as the Dow Industrials struggled, and the S&P 500 was able to eke out a small gain. The coattails were short, and the strength of the yen may have contributed to a 0.2% loss of the Nikkei. Still, its 6.2% advance this month is the best among the G10.

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Families face large differences in tax rates across Switzerland

2020-08-18

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2020-08-18

A comparison of tax rates across different cantons and cities found that Zug – home to many multinational companies – offers the most attractive tax regime for families.

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