Tag Archive: Euro area

ECB Forward Guidance: the Devil is in the Detail

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought.

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Euro area : What if car tariffs lie ahead ?

New US auto tariffs may impact the economy significantly more than the previous tariffs on steel and aluminium.Among the key risks for our euro area outlook, the threat of US auto tariffs is of major importance.The US Commerce Department’s investigation on national security threats posed by auto imports is due to be concluded on 17 February.

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Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook

In our central scenario, we expect the 10-year Bund yield to rise gradually to 0.8% by the end of next year from 0.26% on 17 December. Underpinning this upward movement is our expectation of a cumulative deposit rate hike of 40 basis points (bps) by the ECB, against current market expectations of only 10 bps.

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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Credit Growth Remains Buoyant in the Euro Area

Financial conditions remain supportive and are not expected to tighten much in the coming months. Lending to non-financial corporations in the euro grew by an annual 4.2% in August, its fastest rate since April 2009. Forward-looking indicators suggest that euro area credit growth should remain strong over the coming months.

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Italian material deprivation rates still the worst among large euro area economies

Latest poverty figures provide government with an argument for fiscal stumulus.Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase instalments or other loan payments;...

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Revising our euro area 2018 GDP growth forecast down

The cut to our growth forecast reflects slippage in euro area data.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 2018, below consensus expectations. This was the weakest growth in two years and is down slightly from GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q in Q1.Following today’s GDP growth data and recent economic indicators, we have revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2018.

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Euro area: a slight rebound

The final reading for the euro area composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in June, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.8. However, the manufacturing PMI fell further, to an 18-month low of 54.9, due to weakness in France and Germany.

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The Italian Dilemma

The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again.

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European Banks and Europe’s Never-Ending Crisis

Landfall of a “Told You So” Moment… Late last year and early this year, we wrote extensively about the problems we thought were coming down the pike for European banks. Very little attention was paid to the topic at the time, but we felt it was a typical example of a “gray swan” – a problem everybody knows about on some level, but naively thinks won’t erupt if only it is studiously ignored.

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Net National Savings, Part two: The Consumption-Driven Economies

The second part on Net National Savings in % of gross national income, our preferred alternative indicator to GDP. This part contains the consumption-driven economies, which are Latin America and our Western countries

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