Tag Archive: Donald Trump

The Sudden Need For A Trade Deal

Talk of trade deals is everywhere. Markets can’t get enough of it, even the here-to-fore pessimistic bond complex. Rates have backed up as a few whispers of BOND ROUT!!! reappear from their one-year slumber. If Trump broke the global economy, then his trade deal fixes it. There’s another way of looking at it, though. Why did the President go spoiling for trouble with China in 2018?

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Trade Wars Have Arrived, But It’s Trade Winter That Hurts

There is truth to the trade war. That’s a big problem because it’s not the only problem. It isn’t even the main one. Given that, it’s easy to look at tariffs and see all our current ills in them. The Census Bureau reports today that the trade wars have definitely arrived. In March 2019, US imports from China plummeted by nearly 19% year-over-year.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – January 2019

A Return To Normalcy. In the first two years after a newly elected President takes office he enacts a major tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthy and significantly raises tariffs on imports. His foreign policy is erratic but generally pulls the country back from foreign commitments. He also works to reduce immigration and roll back regulations enacted by his predecessor.

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US Vs China – Is It ‘Art Of The Deal’ Or Economic Warfare?

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines...

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Swiss Prosecutors will not Pursue Novartis over Trump Lawyer Payments

The Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland (OAG) announced on Wednesday that it will not bring proceedings against Novartis in connection with the payments the Swiss pharmaceutical company made to Donald Trump’s personal lawyer.

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Swiss Bank to Drop Iranian Business

A Swiss lender is suspending new transactions with Iran following US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Tehran. Banque de Commerce et de Placements (BCP)external link announced on Tuesday that it was wrapping up its activity in Iran in response to the US pulling out of the Iranian nuclear accord earlier this month.

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US trade disputes indirectly threaten Swiss economy

Ongoing global trade disputes involving the United States are casting a potential shadow over Swiss economic growth, along with other international events, such as the Italian elections and Brexit. However, the Swiss economy is forecast to expand 2.4% this year and 2% in 2019.

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Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average.

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Economics minister praises Swiss tax system

Swiss Economics Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann has downplayed concerns that Swiss-based American firms might relocate to the United States in the wake of tax reform. Speaking in Davos ahead of a visit by US President Donald Trump, Schneider-Ammann said that if he were head of an American company he would think twice before such a relocation, since there is no guarantee the tax breaks will still be in place a few years from now.

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Swiss president says Trump meeting was productive

Swiss President Alain Berset says his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos was productive and frank. Trump took credit for making Switzerland “even richer”. "You have a lot of our stock in the United States so I have helped to make Switzerland even richer," Trump said shortly after the meeting. He said a booming US economy was good for Switzerland.

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Switzerland still competitive despite US tax reforms, says economics minister

Swiss Economics Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann says he does not think sweeping US tax reforms will drive American firms from Switzerland. In an interview with the Schweiz am Wochenende newspaper on Saturday, he said Switzerland also has competitive advantages for companies.

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Trump to attend WEF gathering in Davos

United States President Donald Trump plans to attend the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland later this month, his spokeswoman said on Tuesday. In a statement, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, said Trump was looking forward to attending the annual gatheringexternal link of world leaders and business executives in the mountain resort in southeast Switzerland.

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What President Trump and the West Can Learn from China

Expensive Politics. Instead of a demonstration of its overwhelming military might intended to intimidate tiny North Korea and pressure China to lean on its defiant communist neighbor, President Trump and the West should try to learn a few things from China.

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Political Economics

Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter to some significant degree. It’s just that the political division isn’t the usual R vs. D, left vs....

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Donald Trump: Warmonger-in-Chief

If a world conflagration, God forbid, should break out during the Trump Administration, its genesis will not be too hard to discover: the thin-skinned, immature, shallow, doofus who currently resides in the Oval Office! This past week, the Donald has continued his bellicose talk with both veiled and explicit threats against purported American adversaries throughout the world.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

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Diversify Into Gold On U.S. “Political Instability” Advise Blackrock

Gold set to shine as Washington stumbles. “Bet on gold’s diversifying properties rather than political stability”. World’s largest asset manager believes Trump and political drama in the U.S. means gold likely to rise. Real rates flattening out and rising political instability – Blackrock’s Koesterich. “For now my bias would be to stick with gold” – Blackrock. U.S. debt ceiling issue to be fractious as bankrupt U.S. hits $20 trillion debt....

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Questions

Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000. Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained high. Why?

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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our politics.

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