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Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Dollar Drop Gains Momentum and US Rates Extend Decline

2025-07-01

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2025-07-01

Overview: An accelerated run on the US dollar continues. The euro, sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen to new highs. The greenback has dropped to new lows since 2015 against the Swiss franc. Japan's efforts to protect its rice farmers triggered the ire of President Trump. The "reciprocal tariffs," which could come back …

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The Greenback is Finishing the Month Quietly, while PBOC Fixes the Dollar at New Lows for the Year

2025-06-30

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2025-06-30

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in mostly narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. It is trading mostly softer against emerging markets currencies. The news stream features further progress of the US budget bill, which dropped the onerous "revenge tax" (Section 899), and there is talk of as many as a dozen trade framework agreements …

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Dollar Stabilizes after Yesterday’s Shellacking but Finds Little Traction

2025-06-27

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2025-06-27

The US dollar has steadied today after yesterday's shellacking that saw it fall to new multiyear lows against the euro and sterling and 10-year lows against the Swiss franc. The news stream is somewhat more supportive today, with trade deals said to be in the works, in addition to the confirmation/clarification of an agreement with China.

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Dollar Pummeled on Risk to Fed’s Independence

2025-06-26

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2025-06-26

The US dollar was weak yesterday, but it has been pummeled today. It is down against the G10 currencies and all but the Russian ruble and Turkish lira among emerging market currencies. The proximate trigger of today's sell-off were news reports that a successor to Fed Chair Powell could be announced in a few months.

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Markets Enjoy A Calm Moment

2025-06-25

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2025-06-25

Overview: After a volatile start to the week, the capital markets are quieter and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. The Trump administration is challenging reports that claim the barrage of US bombs merely set back the Iranian nuclear project by a few months. No coup de grace was delivered. The … Continue...

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Fragile Cease-Fire Lifts Animal Spirits and Reverses the Greenback’s Gains

2025-06-24

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2025-06-24

It is not clear when the choreography began. US dramatic display, including dropping a dozen bunker-buster bombs on well telegraphed nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, and reports lend credibility to speculation that the enriched uranium had previously been removed.

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After Initial Reaction, Gold and Oil have Given Back Earlier Gains, and the Greenback Extends the Pre-Weekend Gains

2025-06-23

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2025-06-23

The US struck Iran amid subterfuge and misdirection and while damage was inflicted, it is not clear the extent to which is nuclear capability was destroyed. Now, the world waits for Tehran's retaliation. Still, gold is slightly softer and August WTI is slightly firmer.

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Dollar Comes Back Softer ahead of FOMC Outcome

2025-06-18

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2025-06-18

(Commentary resumes with the weekly outlook on June 21) Overview: Yesterday's dollar buying seen in the North American afternoon appears to have exhausted the position-squaring adjustment amid speculation the US might enter more directly the hostilities with Iran and ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Follow-through buying to has been limited to a couple …

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Dollar Becalmed, Gold Softer, Oil Firmer

2025-06-17

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2025-06-17

The latest phase of the Israel-Iran conflict continues and the impact on the markets remains minimal. Oil prices are elevated, but private insurance seems to be slowing traffic in the Straits of Hormuz more than the direct results of a blockade that Tehran appeared to have threatened.

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Investors Take Israel-Iran Conflict in Stride: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar are Softer

2025-06-16

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2025-06-16

Overview:  After inflicting damage on Iran's proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah), Israel turned to Iran itself following the IAEA's finding that Tehran was in violation of its uranium-enrichment targets. The war continues. The US reportedly helped Israel shoot down missiles aimed at it, but so far Russia, which signed a defense pact with Iran earlier this …

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Israel’s Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Overview: Israel attacked Iranian nuclear enrichment site and apparently targeted scientists and top Revolutionary Guard leadership. Reports suggest that that no increase in radioactivity has been detected. The US quickly indicated that while it was informed of the attack, it did not authorize it. President Trump did warn of a possible strike, but the press …

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Can’t See the Risk-Off by Looking at the Dollar or Gold

2025-06-12

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2025-06-12

Overview: The combination of President Trump's renewed threat to send letters to announce the new bilateral tariff letters and the heightened tensions with Iran have spurred risk-off forces but they have not been expressed, as often is the case, with a stronger dollar and a surge in gold. The greenback is softer against nearly all …

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Ho-Hum Market Reaction to US-China Agreement: US CPI and 10-year Note Auction Next Up

2025-06-11

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2025-06-11

Overview: The dollar is mostly a little firmer against the G10 currencies, though the euro and Swiss franc are notable exceptions but barely. US and Chinese negotiators have reportedly reached a joint understanding of the Geneva Agreement, but the impact on the foreign exchange market appears marginal at best. The dollar's consolidative tone against the …

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Dollar Stabilizes while Sterling Slides after Disappointing Jobs Report

2025-06-10

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2025-06-10

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the G10 currencies with the disappointing UK jobs data weighing on sterling the most. It is off about 0.5% in late morning European activity. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso, which reached new highs for the year yesterday is …

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Dollar Unwinds Jobs Report Gains

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Overview: Despite the US jobs report, which was considerably better than the fears induced by the ADP estimate and the gradually rising jobless claims, and apparent resumption of China's rare earth exports to US (and European) auto makers, Asia and European participants sold into the dollar's gains they inherited. The greenback has largely unwound its …

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Dollar Better Bid Ahead of Jobs Report as Japanese and German Data Disappoint, but Will it be Sustained?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

Overview:  It is not clear what happened yesterday, the first time US and Chinese leaders have spoken since the inauguration. The US readout suggests trade was only discussed and a deal on the rare earths was reached. China's readout included an expression of concern about US planned arms sales to Taiwan and the need for …

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Euro Trades Quietly Ahead of the ECB’s Rate Cut

2025-06-05

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2025-06-05

Overview:  The dollar is mostly softer today in narrow trading ranges, though it is firmer against the yen and Swiss franc. The weakness of US data (ADP, ISM services, and anecdotal Beige Book) lifted the market confidence of at least two Fed cuts this year. Most emerging market currencies are also trading higher against the …

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Hump Day Consolidation in Forex

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

Overview: The dollar was better bid yesterday in North America after the better-than-expected JOLTS report, but it has come back offered today. Still, the general tone is one of consolidation. The greenback is a little softer against the most G10 currencies and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, most of the final …

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Tuesday: US Dollar Stabilizes but Hardly Turns Around

2025-06-03

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2025-06-03

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies, but its gains have been muted, and "consolidation" better characterizes the price action. What were seen as dovish central bank minutes has dragged the Australian dollar down the most among the major currencies, and it is off a little more than 0.5%. The Canadian …

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Markets Rattled to Start the New Month Amid Heightened Trade Tensions

2025-06-02

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2025-06-02

Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian …

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