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Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Dollar Driven Higher by Japan’s LDP Choice as next Leader and Prime Minister and the Collapse of the French Government

2025-10-06

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2025-10-06

Overview: There are two main drivers today. The outcome of Japan's LDP leadership contest means Japan will have its first woman prime minister, She espouses the traditional LDP policy mix of expansionary fiscal policy and advocates easy monetary policy. The yen was sent reeling as were Japanese bonds, where the 40-year yield surged 15 bp …

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The Dollar Limps into the Weekend

2025-10-03

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2025-10-03

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer but most inside yesterday's ranges. An unexpected jump in Japanese unemployment has weighed on the yen, which is the only G10 currency that is not gaining on the dollar today. The soft greenback means the Canadian dollar is likely under-performing and it is barely firmer on the day. … Continue...

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Quiet Foreign Exchange Market in which the Greenback Struggles to Find Traction

2025-10-02

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2025-10-02

Overview: The dollar is soft and trading near session lows in late European morning turnover. The news stream is light and large parts of the US federal government remain closed. China's mainland markets are on holiday. Among the G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar remains the laggard in a soft greenback environment. Most emerging market currencies …

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Markets Take US Government Shutdown in Stride

2025-10-01

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2025-10-01

Overview: The US federal government is under partial closure following the inability to approve appropriations to start the new fiscal year. The president has threatened to permanently fire not just furlough many "non-essential" government workers, but note that as of yesterday, some 150k federal workers have accepted the government's buyout. The longest shutdown in this …

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US Government Shut Down looks Nearly Inevitable

2025-09-30

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2025-09-30

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer against the G10 currencies and emerging market currencies. The hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia has helped lift the Australian dollar almost 0.5% to a four-day high above $0.6700. The Japanese yen is up nearly as much despite poor industrial production and retail sales data. A …

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USD Extends Pre-Weekend Pullback, but may Find Better Bid in North America

2025-09-29

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2025-09-29

Overview: The US dollar is extending the pullback seen ahead of the weekend. It is softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and, perhaps, some US participants will want to wait to see the outcome of President Trump's meeting with Democratic leaders in …

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Markets Digest a Bevy of New US Levies

2025-09-26

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2025-09-26

Overview: The dollar rallied in North America yesterday and the foreign exchange market seems to be waiting for its leadership again today. Against the G10 currencies, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges near yesterday's best levels without advancing. The dollar is mixed against the major currencies but is not much more than +/- 0.15%. …

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Greenback Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains

2025-09-25

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2025-09-25

Overview: The foreign exchange market is becalmed today. The greenback is in narrow ranges with a slightly softer bias against most of the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. The news stream is light, and the leadership of the North American market seems awaited. The US announced a new sectoral investigation into …

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Dollar Finds Traction

2025-09-24

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2025-09-24

Overview: After rallying in the second half of last week, the dollar spent the last two sessions consolidating at lower levels. It has come back bid today amid light news. The greenback is 0.25%-0.50% firmer against the G10 currencies. The exception is the Australian dollar, which is holding on to small gains, inspired by the … Continue...

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The Greenback Struggles to Find Traction, including Against the Swedish Krona Despite Surprise Rate Cut by the Riksbank

2025-09-23

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2025-09-23

Overview: The dollar's rally beginning during the Federal Reserve's press conference last week stalled yesterday, and the greenback is mostly heavier today. Despite Sweden's unexpected rate cut, the krona is leading the G10 currencies higher. The flash September PMIs mostly softened but the impact has been minimal. Fed Chair Powell speaks shortly after noon ET …

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After Marginal Extension of Last Week’s Gains, the US Dollar is Mostly Softer Ahead of the North American Open

2025-09-22

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2025-09-22

Overview: After finishing last week with a bid tone, the US dollar's gains were initially extended against most G10 currencies before a mild bout of profit-taking emerged. It was extended in the European morning but may stall in North America. Several pairs have options near today's highs that expire at 10:00 AM ET. The US …

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Cook and Miran to Attend the FOMC Meeting that Starts Today

2025-09-16

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2025-09-16

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a softer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies. Yesterday's losses have been extended. The exception is the Norwegian krone, which is hovering around unchanged levels. The greenback is softer against most emerging market currencies. Despite Britain and France sending aircraft to help protect Polish airspace after more …

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The Dollar is Softer to Start the New Week

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

Overview: The US dollar begins the important week quietly but heavier against all the G10 currencies, led by sterling. It is pushing against the $1.36 cap that has blocked the upside over the past couple of months. All but a few emerging market currencies also enjoy a firmer tone today. The Mexican peso has recorded … Continue reading...

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Firmer US Rates Help the Dollar Steady

2025-09-12

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2025-09-12

Overview: After yesterday's decline following the CPI and jump in weekly jobless claims, the dollar has steadied today, even if the upticks are not so inspiring. US rates have steadied. The 10-year yield frayed the 4% threshold for the first time in five months but settled a little above it. Today it is a couple … Continue reading...

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ECB Meeting may be a Non-Event, US CPI is Key

2025-09-11

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2025-09-11

Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer today ahead of the CPI and ECB meeting outcome. After falling to a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan earlier today, it has recovered and is higher on the day. The market is pricing in almost a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut next … Continue reading »

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Deflation Continues to Grip China

2025-09-10

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2025-09-10

Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly today, ahead of the August PPI, though with a weaker bias against most of the G10 currencies. The yen and Canadian dollar are the laggards. Two news developments are among the talking points. First, a federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook. …

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Could We Learn Today that the US Created Only Around Half the Number of Jobs in the Year through March as it Thought?

2025-09-09

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2025-09-09

Overview: The US dollar continues to trade with a heavier bias. Today, the yen is leading the move on the back of renewed speculation that the BOJ may still hike rates this year. The Australian dollar has broken above $0.6600 to approach the year's high, while the Canadian dollar is the laggard, as is often …

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Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment

2025-09-08

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2025-09-08

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating with a softer bias after the disappointing employment report before the weekend. The derivatives market is pricing in about a 10% chance of a 50 bp Fed cut next week, which still seems exaggerated given the likely uptick in headline CPI this week. The Japanese yen is the only …

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Dollar Slumps Ahead of the Employment Report

2025-09-05

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2025-09-05

Overview: The focus is on US employment today. Weak jobs growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate are expected to spur the Fed's first rate cut of the year in a couple of weeks. Position adjusting ahead of the report has weighed on the greenback broadly and overwhelmed the unexpectedly poor Germany factory … Continue...

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US Jobs Data Key to Near-Term Greenback’s Fate

2025-09-04

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2025-09-04

Overview: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies today but is mostly trading inside yesterday's ranges. After yesterday's disappointing JOLTS report attention turns to the ADP estimate today, ahead of tomorrow's BLS report. The lack of follow-through selling after yesterday's losses may be encouraging some short-term momentum traders to move to the sidelines. …

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