Tag Archive: Currency Movement

No Follow-Through Euro Buying while S&P Holds Yesterday’s Breakout

2023-01-24

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2023-01-24

Overview:  A quiet consolidative session has been recorded so far today as North American leadership is awaited. The preliminary PMI readings are mixed. Japan and the eurozone look somewhat better, but Australia and the UK disappointed.  The dollar is trading with a mostly firmer bias, but largely confined to yesterday's ranges.  The markets seem to be looked ahead toward next week's Fed, ECB, and BOE meetings, and the return of China from this...

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Euro Pokes Above $1.09. Will it be Sustained?

2023-01-23

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2023-01-23

Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the S&P 500 snap a four-day decline.

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Dismal UK Retail Sales Weigh on Sterling, While the Yen Softens

2023-01-20

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2023-01-20

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites...

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Poor US Data Cast Doubts on New Found Hopes of a Soft-Landing

2023-01-19

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2023-01-19

Overview:  Yesterday's string of dismal US economic data delivered a material blow to those still thinking that a soft-landing was possible. Retail sales by the most in the a year. Manufacturing output fell by nearly 2.5% in the last two months of 2022. Bad economic news weighed on US stocks. The honeymoon of New Year may have ended yesterday. The US 10-year yield fell below 3.40% for the first time since the middle of last September. The Atlanta...

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The BOJ Surprises by Standing Pat

2023-01-18

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2023-01-18

Overview: The BOJ defied speculation and stuck to its current policy, which saw the yen sell-off sharply. The dollar rallied about 3.4 yen before falling back. The greenback is broadly lower against the other G10 currencies. However, for the fifth consecutive session, the euro has stalled around $1.0870. While UK headline inflation softened, mostly due to fuel, core prices were unchanged, and this may have helped sterling extend its recent gains to...

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With Trepidation, the Market Awaits the BOJ

2023-01-17

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2023-01-17

With the market nearly ruling out a 50 bp hike by the Federal Reserve on February 1, the interest rate adjustment appears to have largely run its course. This may be helping to ease the selling pressure on the greenback.

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Monday and Beyond

2023-01-16

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2023-01-16

Monday Ranges: Euro: $1.0802-$1.0874JPY/$: JPY127.23-JPY128.87GBP: $1.2172-$1.2289CAD/$: CAD1.3353-CAD1.3418AUD: $0.6941-$0.7019MXN/$: MXN18.7313-MXN18.8566Rumors of an emergency BOJ meeting sent the dollar to its lows in Tokyo, slightly below the pre-weekend low (~JPY127.46). The on-the-run (most current) 10-year yield settled above the 0.50% cap and the generic 10-year bond has not traded below the 0.50% level since January 5. The market...

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Dollar Index Gives Back Half of 21-Month Gains in 3 1/2 Months

2023-01-13

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2023-01-13

Overview: The continued easing of US price pressures has strengthened the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will further slow the pace of rate hikes and that the terminal rate will be near 5.0%. The decline in US rates has removed a key support for the US dollar, which has fallen against all the G10 currencies this week. The Dollar Index has now retraced half of what it gained since bottoming on January 6, 2021. Meanwhile, there are...

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Is it Too Easy to Think the Market Repeats its Reaction to a Soft US CPI?

2023-01-12

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2023-01-12

The market expects a soft US CPI print today, which has recently been associated with risk-on moves. The US 10-year yield is holding slightly above 3.50%, the lowest end of the range since the middle of last month. The two-year yield is a little above 4.20%, also the lower end of its recent range. Most observers see the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of its hikes to a quarter point on February 1.

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Greenback Consolidates Near Recent Lows Ahead of Tomorrow’s US CPI

2023-01-11

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2023-01-11

Overview: Fed Chair Powell did not push against the easing of US financial conditions when he ostensibly had an opportunity yesterday. This coupled with expectations of another decline in the US CPI, which will be reported tomorrow, has kept the greenback mostly consolidating the losses seen last Friday and Monday.

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Consolidative Tone in FX

2023-01-10

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2023-01-10

Overview: After sharp losses yesterday, the US dollar has stabilized today arguably ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Riksbank symposium. Yesterday's Fed speakers stuck to the hawkish rhetoric, and this seemed to help reverse the equity market gains, though the greenback remained soft.

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Greenback’s Sell-off may Stall Ahead of Powell Tomorrow

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Overview: Don't fight the Fed went the manta as the market took the US two-year yield back up to 4.50% in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes last week, the highest in over a month. The minutes warned of a premature easing of financial conditions. And then bam, softer than expected hourly earnings and a weak service PMI and bonds and stocks rallied, and the dollar was sold. This is a key part of the backdrop for this week, for which several Fed...

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USD Stretched Ahead of Employment Report, while Yuan Jumps on Hopes of New Property Initiatives

2023-01-06

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2023-01-06

Overview: The US dollar extended yesterday's gains as the market adjusts positions ahead of the jobs data. Yesterday and today's price action looks to have strengthened the near-term technical outlook for the greenback. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched. This warns of the risk of a counter-intuitive move after the data, barring a significant surprise. Meanwhile, one of the Fed's leading hawkish voices, St. Louis Fed President...

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The Market Appears to Shrug Off the Fed’s Warning

2023-01-05

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2023-01-05

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in a mixed fashion today. The FOMC minutes drew much attention but failed, at least initially, to spur a significant shift in expectations. The pricing in the Fed funds futures strip is still consistent with a cut later this year, which the minutes were clear, no officials anticipate. Today's US ADP jobs estimate, and November trade balance are being overshadowed by tomorrow's nonfarm payroll figures. The...

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Yesterday’s Gains Unwound may Make the Greenback a Better Buy Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2023-01-04

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2023-01-04

Overview:  Yesterday's greenback gains have been mostly reversed today. New efforts by China in its property market and anticipation of more stimulus helped rekindle the animal spirits today. Asia and Europe shrugged off yesterday's losses on Wall Street and the rally in bonds continued. The 8-12 bp decline in European benchmark 10-year yields comes even though the final composite PMI was better than expected fanning hopes of a short and shallow...

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The Dollar Jumps

2023-01-03

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2023-01-03

Overview: Market participants have returned from the New Year celebrations apparently with robust risk appetites. Equities and bonds are rallying, and the dollar has surged higher. The markets seem to be looking past the surge in China's Covid cases and anticipates a recovery, helping Chinese equities lead Asia Pacific bourses higher, where Japanese markets are still on holiday.

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European Rates Continue to Surge, Sending Stocks Spiraling Lower

2022-12-16

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2022-12-16

Overview: Seven of the G10 central banks pumped the brakes between last week and this week as they purposely seek to push demand back into line with supply. And there are more signs that they are succeeding in weakening growth impulses. The dramatic surge in European bond yields continues today with 10-year rates mostly rising another 13-15 bp.

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The Greenback Recovers After the Initial Post-Fed Wobble

2022-12-15

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2022-12-15

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid after losing ground against most currencies as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision and press conference. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been tagged the hardest, illustrating the risk-off mood, and arguably the weakening growth prospects. Countries that peg their currencies to the dollar have hiked rates, as has the Philippines and Taiwan. The Swiss National Bank and Norway have also lifted policy...

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What Can the Fed tell the Market it Does Not Already Know?

2022-12-14

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2022-12-14

Overview: The softer than expected US CPI drove the dollar and interest rates lower, while igniting strong advances in equities, risk assets, commodities, and gold. Calmer market conditions are prevailing today, and we suspect that in the run-up to the FOMC meeting, a broadly consolidative tone will emerge. The dollar is mostly softer, but within yesterday’s ranges. Only the New Zealand and Canadian dollars among the G10 currencies are softer....

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US CPI ahead of FOMC Outcome Tomorrow

2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the...

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