Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Dollar Remains on the Defensive after the FOMC

2025-12-11

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2025-12-11

(Last daily of the year.  Weekly will be posted on Saturday, December 13. January monthly will drop on January 3.)Overview: The dollar was sold in response to yesterday's FOMC decision. There has been limited follow-through selling in Asia and Europe today. The greenback is mixed as North American participants return. The Swiss franc is the …

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Fed Day with 10-year Yield at a Three-Month High

2025-12-10

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2025-12-10

Overview: The outcome of the FOMC meeting is the main focus today. With the market discounting at least two cuts next year compared with the median projection in September that one cut would be appropriate, it is difficult not to anticipate a hawkish cut. The greenback has rallied after both the September and October rate … Continue reading...

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Hawkish Hold by the RBA; Will the Fed Deliver a Hawkish Cut Tomorrow?

2025-12-09

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2025-12-09

Overview: The US dollar is sporting a slightly softer profile against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is trading at a seven-day low against the greenback. The Scandis and Australian dollar are doing best. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish hold. Governor Bullock's comments encouraged the market to bring …

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Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

2025-12-08

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2025-12-08

Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover against the G10 currencies to start the new week, which is widely expected to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow and there is speculation that it may signal its next move is a …

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German Factory Orders Surprise to the Upside, Japan Household Spending Surprise to the Downside, while the Greenback Consolidates

2025-12-05

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2025-12-05

Overview: The US dollar is a little softer today but mostly consolidating yesterday's moves against the G10 currencies. The Australian dollar leads the way and reached its best level since September 18. The market, though, has shrugged off surprising data:  a surge in German factory orders and a disappointing drop in household spending in Japan. …

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Dollar’s Downside Momentum Stalls

2025-12-04

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2025-12-04

Overview: The US dollar is stabilizing most of the G10 currencies today after its recent losses. As the North American markets are set to open, the greenback is posting minor gains against the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. The news stream is light. The market has lifted the odds of a … Continue...

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After Pausing Yesterday, the Greenback’s Slide is Extending Today

2025-12-03

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2025-12-03

Overview: The US dollar is under pressure today. Stronger European final PMI readings and a pullback in US yields have seen the greenback sold through last month's lows against several G10 currencies. And even where the data disappointed, like Australia's Q3 GDP or Switzerland's CPI, the currencies are bid. Led by central European currencies, most …

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Is the Dollar’s Consolidation a Prelude to an Upside Correction?

2025-12-02

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2025-12-02

Overview: The dollar has traded heavily in recent days, and it is consolidating in narrow ranges with a slightly firmer bias today. US rates, which jumped yesterday, are sustaining higher levels through the Asia Pacific session and the European morning. We suspect the greenback has scope for additional near-term corrective gains. Despite a solid 10-year …

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Dollar Losses Extended, while Stocks and Bonds Retreat

2025-12-01

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2025-12-01

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today. Equities and bonds have also been sold on the first day of the new month. The dollar bloc and the sterling are laggards today, while the yen has been squeezed higher amid heightened speculation that the Bank of Japan will lift rates later this … Continue reading »

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USD Bounces into the End of the Week

2025-11-28

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2025-11-28

Overview: The US dollar is trading firmer against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen is the best performer, and it is virtually flat despite the swing toward BOJ hike next month. Expectations have steadied for a Fed cut next month around 80%. The November inflation reports from the largest eurozone members failed to inspire … Continue...

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Reeve’s Budget and US Beige Book Still to Come after Market Swings toward a Fed Cut and PBOC validates Stronger Yuan

2025-11-26

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2025-11-26

Overview: The US dollar is mostly lower today. The pendulum has shifted hard in favor of a rate cut next month and this has taken the wind from the dollar's sails. The New Zealand dollar is leading today's move after the central bank cut rates for perhaps the last time in the cycle. The Australian …

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Trump Speaks with Xi and Takaichi but Chinese-Japanese Tensions Remain High

2025-11-25

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2025-11-25

Overview:   The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It leads the major currencies with around a 0.35% gain as the dollar slips to a four-day low near JPY156 after peaking last week slightly shy of JPY158. The dollar-bloc currencies join the Swiss franc and …

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Dollar Consolidates to Start the New Week

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

Overview: The reassessment of the outlook for next month's FOMC meeting, spurred by comments before the weekend by the NY Fed president has been sustained today but the impact on the dollar is not so clear. The greenback is mixed, with the European currencies, for the most part, doing better than the dollar bloc and … Continue...

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Risk-Off Friday

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

Overview: The sharp fall in global equities after the stunning reversal in the US yesterday is the main development today. The largest markets in the Asia Pacific region fell more than 2% today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off more than 1%. It is selling off for the sixth session in the past seven. After posting … Continue reading »

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Euro Stabilizes above $1.15, while the Yen Remains Vulnerable

2025-11-20

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2025-11-20

Overview:  The US dollar is little changed against most of the G10 currencies as the North American session is about to get underway. There were some follow-through greenback gains after yesterday's advance but limited. The dollar's rally against the yen continued. It reached almost JPY157.80 before pulling back to around JPY157.10, where it found support …

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The Japanese Yen Continues to Fall

2025-11-19

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2025-11-19

Overview: The US dollar is firmer today. It has reached a new ten-month high against the yen, a little above JPY156 and the euro saw a five-day low near $1.1565. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new high for the month. The news stream is light. UK's … Continue reading »

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Equities Wish it were Turn Around Tuesday as Rout Continues and No Relief for the Yen

2025-11-18

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2025-11-18

Overview: A sell-off in equities is continuing while the foreign exchange market is quiet with the greenback confined mostly to narrow ranges. It is firmer against most currencies, though the dollar bloc is the most resilient today. The dollar reached a new nine-month high against the yen. Despite some escalating rhetoric from the MOF, the …

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Downgraded Chances of Fed Cut Next Month Help Underpin the Greenback

2025-11-17

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2025-11-17

Overview: The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans, leading the move with around 0.25% losses. Rising tensions between Japan and China, coupled with shift in expectations away from a Fed cut and a BOJ hike next month keeps the dollar within strike distance of JPY155, where $1.4 …

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Sterling and Gilts Weighed Down by UK Government Budget Shift

2025-11-14

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2025-11-14

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias today but is mostly within yesterday's range. There are four developments to note. First, China's October data mostly disappointed, but the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since October 2024. Second, the UK government reportedly has shifted strategies to focus on …

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US Dollar Remains Soft Despite Disappointing UK Growth and Eurozone Industrial Output

2025-11-13

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2025-11-13

Overview: The US dollar is trading heavier against most of the world's currencies today. Better than expected Australian employment data, which boosts speculation that the central bank's easing cycle is over, helps explain the Australian dollar's gain to its best level of the month. However, sterling is firm and extended yesterday's gains despite news that …

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