Tag Archive: commodities

FX Daily, June 23: Japan Retains Distinction of being the only G7 Country with Sub-50 PMI Composite

Federal Reserve officials, lead by Chair Powell, pushed gently against the more hawkish interpretations of last week's FOMC meeting. Tapering not a rate hike was the focus of discussions. Powell reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and would ease after the re-opening disruptions settled down.

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Sure Looks Like Supply Factors

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

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FX Daily, June 18: Markets Quiet Ahead of Triple Witching

After some dramatic moves over in the immediate post-Fed period, the markets have quieted. The kind of volatility that is sometimes associated with triple witching expirations in the US may have already taken place. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, but the MSCI benchmark finished with its second consecutive weekly decline. 

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Copper Corroding PPI

Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low. Down almost $0.19 for the day, an unusual and eye-opening loss, this brings the cumulative decline to 9.2% since the peak way back on May 11.

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FX Daily, June 16: Will the Fed Talk the Talk?

With the outcome of the FOMC meeting awaited, the dollar is narrowly mixed in quiet turnover. The Scandis are the weakest (~-0.3%) among the majors, while the Antipodeans are the strongest (~+0.25%). JP Morgan's Emerging Market Currency Index is snapping a three-day decline

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FX Daily, June 15: Commodities Ease though Oil remains Firm

The new record high in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ's sixth gain in seven sessions may have helped lift Asia Pacific markets today. Only China and Hong Kong did not participate. MSCI's regional index rose for its fourth consecutive session. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is moving higher for the eighth session in a row. 

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse with Alhambra Investments, interview with Joe Calhoun.

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FX Daily, June 11: US Yields Stabilize After Falling to Three-Month Lows

The 10-year US Treasury yield steadied after reaching a three-month low near 1.43%, despite the US CPI rising more than expected to 5% year-over-year. On the week, the decline of around a dozen basis points would be the largest in a year. Australia, New Zealand, and Italy benchmark yields have seen a bigger decline this week.

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FX Daily, May 26: RBNZ Joins the Queue, while Yuan’s Advance Continues

The decline in US rates and the doves at the ECB pushing back against the need to reduce bond purchases next month have seen European bond yields unwind most of this month's gain. The inability of US shares to hold on to early gains yesterday did not deter the Asia Pacific and European equities from trading higher.

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FX Daily, May 24: China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured

The US dollar is firmer in the European morning after starting out with a softer bias in Asia Pacific turnover. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Swiss franc are heavy, but ranges are narrow, and consolidation seems to be the flavor of the day.

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FX Daily, May 14: Softer Yields = Softer Dollar

The surge in consumer prices reported on Wednesday saw rates jump and the dollar push higher. Stronger than expected producer prices yesterday, and news of wage increases (average 10%) at Mcdonalds and for 75,000 people Amazon wants to hire, saw rates ease and the dollar's upside momentum stall.

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FX Daily, April 27: Markets Mark Time Ahead of Fed

Short-covering ahead of the FOMC's outcome tomorrow appears to be lending the US dollar support today. It has extended yesterday's gains against the euro, sterling, and yen.  Among emerging market currencies, the Turkish lira, along with the South Korean won and Taiwanese dollar, lead the few advancers.

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Market Did What??!!

One of the most common complaints I hear about the markets is that they are “divorced from reality”, that they aren’t acting as the current economic data would seem to dictate. I’ve been in this business for 30 years and I think I first heard that in year one. Or maybe even before I decided to lose my mind and start managing other people’s money. Because, of course, it has always been this way.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

The answer to the question, “What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response….to anything…or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Rumor, Sell The News

There’s an old saying on Wall Street that one should “buy the rumor, sell the news”, a pithy way to express the efficient market theorem. By the time an event arrives, whatever it may be, the market will have fully digested the news and incorporated it into current prices. And then the market will move on to anticipating the next event, large or small. What prompts this review of Wall Street folk wisdom is the most recent employment report.

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What Gold Says About UST Auctions

The “too many” Treasury argument which ignited early in 2018 never made a whole lot of sense. It first showed up, believe it or not, in 2016. The idea in both cases was fiscal debt; Uncle Sam’s deficit monster displayed a voracious appetite never in danger of slowing down even though – Economists and central bankers claimed – it would’ve been wise to heed looming inflationary pressures to cut back first.

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Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the  spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery.

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.

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Politics Get Weird, Markets Don’t Care

A mob, led by a shirtless man wearing a Viking helmet, stormed the Capitol building a couple of weeks ago and five people died before order was restored. A man from upstate New York sat in a Senator’s office and smoked a joint. Another roamed the halls of Congress with a Confederate flag.

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