Tag Archive: commodities

2021-09-27

US stocks sold off last Monday due to fears over the potential – likely – failure of China Evergrande, a real estate developer that has suddenly discovered the perils of leverage. Well that and the perils of being in an industry not currently favored by Xi Jinping. He has declared that houses are for living in not speculating on and ordered the state controlled banks to lend accordingly.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Time For A Taper Tantrum?

2021-09-20

2021-09-20

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at which he’ll tell us that markets have nothing to worry about because even if they taper QE, interest rates aren’t going up for a long, long time.

Read More »

What’s Real Behind Commodities

2021-09-08

2021-09-08

Inflation is sustained monetary debasement – money printing, if you prefer – that wrecks consumer prices. It is the other of the evil monetary diseases, the one which is far more visible therefore visceral to the consumers pounded by spiraling costs of bare living. Yet, it is the lesser evil by comparison to deflation which insidiously destroys the labor market from the inside out.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Anniversary!

2021-08-16

2021-08-16

Today is the 50th anniversary of the “Nixon shock”, the day President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and ended the post-WWII Bretton Woods currency agreement. That agreement, largely a product of John Maynard Keynes, pegged the dollar to gold and most other currencies to the dollar.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: What Is Today’s New Normal?

2021-08-09

2021-08-09

Remember “The New Normal”? Back in 2009, Bill Gross, the old bond king before Gundlach came along, penned a market commentary called “On the Course to a New Normal” which he said would be: “a period of time in which economies grow very slowly as opposed to growing like weeds, the way children do; in which profits are relatively static; in which the government plays a significant role in terms of deficits and reregulation and control of the...

Read More »

Gold, Stocks & Commodities- A Complicated Correlation

2021-08-07

by Stephen Flood

2021-08-07

In our July 29 post titled How Gold Stacks Up Against Stocks, Property, Commodities and Big Macs! we showed readers charts of gold as a ratio to other assets and products. We discussed that gold competes with crypto and stocks for the investment dollars.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Dip, If You Can

2021-07-26

2021-07-26

If you were waiting for a correction in stock prices to put some money to work, you got your chance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 1000 points at the low Monday and closed down 725, a loss of a little over 2%. The S&P 500 did a little better but closed down 1.5%.

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 2: Let’s Crack China’s RRR Code

2021-07-24

2021-07-24

89.2 China Warns World of (Next?) Dollar Disorder. The People’s Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren’t enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there aren’t enough (euro)dollars in the world. A lower RRR is a warning for the whole world.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde

2021-07-22

2021-07-22

Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan's markets are closed today and tomorrow. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's rally, and with today's ~0.8% gain, it is up on the week.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: As Clear As Mud

2021-07-19

2021-07-19

Is there anyone left out there who doesn’t know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10 year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10 year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low and are still down nearly 12% from the highs.

Read More »

And Now Three Huge PPIs Which Still Don’t Matter One Bit In Bond Market

2021-07-15

2021-07-15

U.S. PPI Commodities Finished Goods Core YoY, Jan 2001 - Jan 2021

And just like that, snap of the fingers, it’s gone. Without a “bad” Treasury auction, there was no stopping the bond market today from retracing all of yesterday’s (modest) selloff and then some. This despite the huge CPI estimates released before the prior session’s trading, and now PPI figures that are equally if not more obscene.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Is It Time To Panic Yet?

2021-07-12

2021-07-12

Until last week you hadn’t heard much about the bond market rally. I told you we were probably near a rally way back in early April when the 10 year was yielding around 1.7%. And I told you in mid-April that the 10 year yield could fall all the way back to the 1.2 to 1.3% range.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 08: Capital Markets Remain Unhinged

2021-07-08

2021-07-08

The dramatic move in the capital markets continues. The US dollar is soaring as yields and equities slide. The US 10-year yield has fallen below 1.30 to 1.26% European benchmark yields are 1-4 bp lower, while Australia and New Zealand have seen a 7-9 bp drop today.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 23: Japan Retains Distinction of being the only G7 Country with Sub-50 PMI Composite

2021-06-23

2021-06-23

Federal Reserve officials, lead by Chair Powell, pushed gently against the more hawkish interpretations of last week's FOMC meeting. Tapering not a rate hike was the focus of discussions. Powell reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and would ease after the re-opening disruptions settled down.

Read More »

Sure Looks Like Supply Factors

2021-06-23

2021-06-23

CME Random Length Lumber Futures, Jan 2020 - Jun 2021

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-06-22

by Marcelo Perez

2021-06-22

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 18: Markets Quiet Ahead of Triple Witching

2021-06-18

2021-06-18

After some dramatic moves over in the immediate post-Fed period, the markets have quieted. The kind of volatility that is sometimes associated with triple witching expirations in the US may have already taken place. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, but the MSCI benchmark finished with its second consecutive weekly decline.

Read More »

Copper Corroding PPI

2021-06-17

2021-06-17

Copper Futers, Continuous Frn Month, Jan 2002 - May 2021

Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low. Down almost $0.19 for the day, an unusual and eye-opening loss, this brings the cumulative decline to 9.2% since the peak way back on May 11.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 16: Will the Fed Talk the Talk?

2021-06-16