Tag Archive: China Industrial Production

FX Daily, July 15: Marking Time on Monday

Overview: The new record highs in US equities ahead of the weekend coupled with Chinese data that suggested the economy was gaining some traction as Q2 wound down is helping underpin risk appetites to start the week. Japanese markets were closed today, but equities were mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific regions, markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India firmed. 

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FX Daily, June 14: Waning Risk Appetite Going into the Weekend

Overview:  Worries about an escalation in the Gulf following US accusations that Iran was behind yesterday's two attacks and weaker growth impulses, while trade tensions remain high, are dampening risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Equities are lower.  Nearly all the stock markets in the Asia Pacific region fell today with Japan and Australia being the notable exceptions.

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FX Daily, May 15: Angst Continues

Overview: Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week.  Indonesia, which reported a record trade deficit on the back of collapsing exports (-13.1% year-over-year in April, nearly twice the decline expected after a 10% fall in March) kept the pressure on its...

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China’s Blowout IP, Frugal Stimulus, and Sinking Capex

It had been 55 months, nearly five years since China’s vast and troubled industrial sector had seen growth better than 8%. Not since the first sparks of the rising dollar, Euro$ #3’s worst, had Industrial Production been better than that mark. What used to be a floor had seemingly become an unbreakable ceiling over this past half a decade. According to Chinese estimates, IP in March 2019 was 8.5% more than it was in March 2018. That was far more...

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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Why 2011

The eurodollar era saw not one but two credit bubbles. The first has been studied to death, though almost always getting it wrong. The Great Financial Crisis has been laid at the doorstep of subprime, a bunch of greedy Wall Street bankers insufficiently regulated to have not known any better. That was just a symptom of the first. The housing bubble itself was more than housing.

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Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6.

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No Sign of Stimulus, Or Global Growth, China’s Economy Sunk By (euro)Dollar

Najib Tun Razak was elected as Malaysia’s Prime Minister in early 2009. Taking office that April amid global turmoil and chaos, Najib’s first official visit was to Beijing in early June. His father, also Malaysia’s Prime Minister, had been the first among Asian nations to open formal diplomatic relations with China thirty-five years before.

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Fear Or Reflation Gold?

Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way.

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China’s Eurodollar Story Reaches Its Final Chapters

Imagine yourself as a rural Chinese farmer. Even the term “farmer” makes it sound better than it really is. This is a life out of the 19th century, subsistence at best the daily struggle just to survive. Flourishing is a dream.

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The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.

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FX Daily, November 14: Dollar Comes Back After Yesterday’s Profit-Taking

Overview:  Investors are on pins and needles today.  Oil prices are trying to stabilize after WTI's outsized 7% fall yesterday, its largest in three years.  Global equities are heavier, dragged down by energy, but also larger than expected Q3 contractions in Japan and Germany, and a mixed bag of Chinese data that showed possible stabilization of the industrial sector though weaker consumption. 

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FX Daily, September 14: Dollar Losses Extended

The US dollar remains on the defensive after retreating yesterday.  Its losses against the most of the major and emerging market currencies are being extended today.  The combination of softer US inflation coupled with a less dovish than expected ECB, a Bank of England lifting growth forecasts, while warning that a Brexit without an agreement could spur higher mortgage rates, and a more aggressive rate hike by Turkey conspired to force the dollar...

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FX Daily, July 16: Dollar Softens a Little as Market Awaits Developments

The US dollar is slightly softer against most of the major currencies but is in narrow ranges ahead of today's key events, which include US retail sales and the debate in the UK parliament over Brexit.  The yen is the main exception.  The local markets are closed for a public holiday, and the yen did initially strengthen (the dollar eased to ~JPY112.10) but surrendered those gains and consolidating its biggest loss last week in 10 months.

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Anchoring Globally Synchronized Growth, Or We Gave Up Long Ago?

January was the last month in which China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) specifically mentioned Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) of state holding enterprises (or SOE’s). For the month of December 2017, the NBS reported accumulated growth (meaning for all of 2017) in this channel of 10.1%. Through FAI of SOE’s, Chinese authorities in early 2016 had panicked themselves into unleashing considerable “stimulus.”

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FX Daily, May 15: Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback

US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.  Asian equities fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific shedding 0.8%, the most in nearly a month, snapping a three-day advance. China and India were able to buck the regional move. China's economic data was mostly softer than expected and is consistent with a gradual turn in the cycle as the Lunar New effect fades.

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FX Daily, April 17: Dollar Recovers from Further Selling as Turnaround Tuesday Unfolds

After the retreating in the North American session yesterday, despite a rebound in retail sales after three-months of declines, the greenback has been sold further in Europe and Asia. The euro edged through last week's high near $1.24, and sterling rose through the January high to reach its best level since the mid-2016 referendum. Sterling rose through $1.4375 before the easing after the employment report.

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China’s Questionable Start to 2018

The Chinese government reported estimates for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) for both January and February 2018. The National Bureau of Statistics prepares and calculates China’s major economic statistics in this manner at the beginning of each year due to the difficulties created by calendar effects (New Year Golden Week).

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China: Inflation? Not Even Reflation

The conventional interpretation of “reflation” in the second half of 2016 was that it was simply the opening act, the first step in the long-awaiting global recovery. That is what reflation technically means as distinct from recovery; something falls off, and to get back on track first there has to be acceleration to make up that lost difference.

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How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

According to China’s official PMI’s, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without China’s participation in it. Of course, things could change next month or the month after, but this idea has been around for a year and a half already.

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