Tag Archive: Blog

New Opportunities 2021: Fiscal policy for the recovery

2021-01-24

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2021-01-24

This GIS 2021 Outlook series focuses on the opportunities that stem from the upheaval of the past year. Coronavirus vaccine distribution has begun, most probably marking the beginning of the end of the global health crisis. A receding pandemic will leave behind intertwined economic and fiscal challenges for countries around the world.

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Vaccine Passports Are a Terrible Idea

2021-01-20

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2021-01-20

Vaccine rollout is advancing at snail pace in the European Union. At the same time, countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel are moving quickly to get large parts of the population vaccinated as promptly as possible. As Europe debates the success or failure of its vaccine policy, some countries want to be one step ahead and discuss the possibility of so-called vaccine passports.

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The Problem with Record-Low Interest Rates

2021-01-20

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2021-01-20

Are you familiar with the GoldNewsletter podcast? They boast over 200 episodes on the topics of investment, economics, and geopolitics.

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Reflections Over 2020

2021-01-05

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2021-01-05

Wow, it has been a heckuva year! One thought leads to another on this sunny-but-cool January 1. Having watched a few seasons of Forged in Fire, I’ve gained an appreciation of how difficult it is to pound and grind a lump of steel into a blade, even with power tools. There are many ways for it to go wrong.

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A Future Hunger Pandemic

2020-12-29

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2020-12-29

The coronavirus has dominated all of our lives in recent months. Radical paths were taken by politicians in the form of lockdowns to contain the pandemic. But we should recognize that even if the coronavirus is a (major) challenge for us, we always have to keep a holistic view of world events.

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Deflation: Friend or Foe?

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

Deflation is the most feared economic phenomenon of our time. The reason behind this a priori irrational fear (why should we be afraid of prices going down?) is the Great Depression.

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The Costs of Coronavirus Lockdowns

2020-12-11

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2020-12-11

Throughout the next weeks, we will regularly feature statistics showing some of the costs of the prevailing lockdown politics. This article is an introduction to this new series. All over Europe, life has come to a halt again. As a second wave of Coronavirus infections has arrived, social and economic life has largely once more, as was already the case in spring when COVID-19 first spread across the world.

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Oil market outlook: Land in sight but rough seas ahead

2020-12-07

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2020-12-07

In November, new vaccines showed great promise in fighting Covid-19, and the exhilaration was clear in markets around the world. However, the enthusiasm was not sustained. Many experts and political leaders rushed to warn that while a vaccine could mean the end of the health crisis, the economy – and oil markets in particular – are still in for a rough ride.

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This Pandemic Has Too Many Predictable “I Told You So’s”

2020-12-06

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2020-12-06

Most of Europe is back in lockdown, presumably as punishment for our sins of going outside during the summer, and as preparation for the Christmas holidays. It feels like being back in school, where a patronizing teacher indicates that the children are incapable of behaving themselves. To some Europeans, this is a surprising development. Yet to lovers of liberty, the fact that power leads to ever-expanding power is no news.

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The Simon-Ehrlich Bet Did Not Settle the Question

2020-07-11

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2020-07-11

Are you familiar with the bet? Ehrlich wrote a book titled The Population Bomb. He held a pessimistic view of the future, in which population growth would outstrip resources (essentially the same as Thomas Malthus).

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The Federal Counterfeiter

2020-05-25

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2020-05-25

Suppose you wanted to run an enterprise the right way (we know, we know, this is pretty far-out fiction, but bear with us). And, your enterprise has a $1 million dollar piece of equipment that wears out after 10 years. You must set aside $100,000 a year, so that you have $1 million at the end of 10 years when the equipment needs replacing. There’s a word, now archaic, to describe the account in which you set aside this money.

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Open Letter to Crispin Odey

2020-05-22

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2020-05-22

I am writing in response to the comments you made in a letter to investors yesterday, which were widely reported. You have set the gold community afire, with claims that are not new and not true. So I shall attempt to douse the flames. As everyone knows, President Roosevelt outlawed the ownership of gold in 1933. Although gold was legalized in 1975, fears linger today that the governments may repeat this heinous act.

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Keith Weiner Gets Interviewed

2019-07-03

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2019-07-03

Our economic views and unique product are generating buzz. There have been a number of interviews recently (more will be posted soon). Lobo Tiggre interviewed Keith Weiner (video) about the unique Monetary Metals business model to pay interest on gold.

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Debt and Profit in Russell 2000 Firms

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

U.S. small-cap debt builds up
This week, the Supply and Demand Report featured a graph of debt vs profitability in the Russell 2000. Here’s the graph again: This graph shows a theme that we, and practically no one else(!) have been discussing for years. It is the diminishing marginal utility of debt. In this case, more and more debt is required to add what looks like less and less profit (we don’t have the raw data, only the graphic).

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Interview, Ted Talk, Gold Bug Hope and will the Swiss Franc Collapse

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

I was on the Jay Taylor Show again, to talk about the the Swiss franc. No, the headline was not of my choosing. Adam Caroll gave a Ted Talk about how people behave differently when money isn’t real. And gets into a discussion of how kids will click to spend on their parents’ phones without any real appreciation for what it costs. It’s called “When money isn’t real“.

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Textbook Falling Interest Behavior

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

This is a textbook case. Well, it would be if there was a textbook that presented the dynamics of the rising and falling interest rate cycles. Costco is spending over a quarter billion dollars, to make a capital investment in chicken processing. This is not the typical entrepreneurial investment, which seeks to increase margins by serving an unserved or underserved demand.

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Who Would Invest in a Gold Bond?

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet famously dismissed gold. “Gold has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.” I have recently written about how a government with gold mining tax revenues can use gold. The benefits of issuing gold bonds include reducing risk, and getting out of debt at a discount. Pretty useful, eh?

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The Benefits of Issuing Gold Bonds

2018-07-01

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2018-07-01

A gold bond is debt obligation that is denominated in gold, with interest and principal paid in gold. As I will explain below, it’s a way for the issuer to pay off its debt in full, and there are other advantages. Sometimes, I find that it’s helpful to show a picture of what I’m talking about. At the Harvard Club in New York, an old gold bond is hanging on the wall among other memorabilia.

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