Tag Archive: Backwardation

Silver Fever, or Silver Fading?

2022-09-16

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2022-09-16

We finally had a resolution, of sorts, in silver. Since April 13, we have had a falling price of silver (indicated as a rising price of the dollar, as measured in silver). And along with this price trend, a growing scarcity of the metal to the market (i.e. the cobasis, the red line). Indeed, the price (of the dollar) and silver scarcity move with uncanny coordination. Almost as if they are linked.

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Silver Update: Scarcity Gets More Extreme

2022-09-05

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2022-09-05

Since our last silver article, the price of silver has dropped. With due respect to Frederic Bastiat, the price is the seen. The basis mostly goes unseen. We will take a look at the market data, revised for a few more days of trading.

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The Silver Phoenix Market

2022-09-02

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2022-09-02

Listen to the audio version of this article here. The price of silver hit a peak over $26.50 on March 8. It spent about a month and a half breaking down, and then the bottom fell out. It’s currently down from that peak almost 8 bucks. Breaking Down Fundamental Silver Prices However, the opposite has been happening to silver’s scarcity. First, let’s look at a chart of the silver market price and the silver fundamental price.

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

2020-12-12

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2020-12-12

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously.

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Silver Backwardation Returns, Gold and Silver Market Report 2 March

2020-03-02

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2020-03-02

Silver Spot Price Bid-Offer Spread
The big news this week was the drop in the prices of the metals (though we believe that it is the dollar which is going up), $57 and $1.81 respectively. Of course, when the price drops the injured goldbugs come out. We have written the authoritative debunking of the gold and silver price suppression conspiracy here. We provide both the scientific theory and the data.

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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, 2001-2019
Despite the name, the Fed doesn’t actually intervene in the US$ repo market. I know they called them overnight repo operations, but that’s only because they mimic repo transactions not because the central bank is conducting them in that specific place. What really happened was FRBNY allotting bank reserves (in exchange for UST, MBS, and agency collateral) only to the 24 primary dealers.

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You Can’t Eat Gold, Report 14 Oct 2018

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Gold and Silver Price
“You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing. This gives us an idea. Let’s tie three facts together. One, you can’t eat gold. Two, gold is in backwardation in Switzerland. And three, speculation is a bet on the price action.

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The Toxic Stew, Report 7 Oct 2018

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

Swiss 10 year Bond History
Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015).

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