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Marktausblick mit Stefan Breintner und Markus Koch Dezember 2023

#börse #wirtschaft #künstlicheintelligenz #märkte Marketing-Anzeige Euphorie an den Börsen: Wird der Optimismus anhalten? Die US-Notenbank hat seit ihrer letzten Sitzung für gute Stimmung an den Börsen gesorgt. Der Markt erwartet deutliche Zinssenkungen für 2024. Gleichzeitig ist ein sogenanntes “Soft-Landing” der US-Wirtschaft Marktkonsensus. Im monatlichen Marktausblick-Dialog diskutieren Stefan Breintner, Research-Leiter von DJE und...

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Why Secession Offers a Path to Wealth and Self-Determination

[This article is chapter 5 of Breaking Away: The Case for Secession, Radical Decentralization, and Smaller Polities. Now available at Amazon and in the Mises Store.] One of the most consistent and enthusiastic defenders of human rights and “natural rights” in the twentieth century was the economist and historian Murray Rothbard. A self-described libertarian, Rothbard would also have fit in well among the more radical liberals of the nineteenth...

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Modern Portfolio Theory Is Mistaken: Diversification Is Not Investment

According to modern portfolio theory (MPT), financial asset prices always fully reflect all available and relevant information, and any adjustment to new information is virtually instantaneous. Thus, asset prices respond only to the unexpected part of information since the expected portion is already embedded in prices. For example, if the central bank raises interest rates by 0.5 percent, and if market participants anticipated this action, asset...

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Sustainability of Eden: Can the UN’s Sustainability Agenda Succeed in a World Full of Conflict?

To achieve sustainability, the world needs stability. Yet two-thirds of countries are facing major economic, political, and social problems. Most of them are also experiencing ethnic or civil conflicts, mass migration and poverty crises. The question is whether the UN's sustainability agenda can succeed in the context of ongoing or simmering conflicts. Paradoxically, preventing wars and conflicts isn't one of the UN's seventeen sustainable...

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The Christmas Truce of World War I

The Christmas truce, which occurred primarily between the British and German soldiers along the Western front in December 1914, is an event the official histories of the "Great War" leave out, and the Orwellian historians hide from the public. Stanley Weintraub has broken through this barrier of silence and written a moving account of this significant event by compiling letters sent home from the front, as well as diaries of the soldiers...

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Marktausblick mit Stefan Breitner und Markus Koch Dezember 2023

#börse #wirtschaft #künstlicheintelligenz #märkte Marketing-Anzeige Euphorie an den Börsen: Wird der Optimismus anhalten? Die US-Notenbank hat seit ihrer letzten Sitzung für gute Stimmung an den Börsen gesorgt. Der Markt erwartet deutliche Zinssenkungen für 2024. Gleichzeitig ist ein sogenanntes “Soft-Landing” der US-Wirtschaft Marktkonsensus. Im monatlichen Marktausblick-Dialog diskutieren Stefan Breintner, Research-Leiter von DJE und...

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USD/CHF heading for 0.8500 as Swiss Franc climbs into four-month high against Greenback

The USD/CHF slipped through the 0.8600 handle on Thursday as broader markets push over the US Dollar (USD), bolstering all other major currencies across the board and lifting the Swiss Franc into a new twenty-week high against the Greenback.

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Swiss budget agreed with humanitarian spending cut

Switzerland’s parliament has finalised the 2024 budget after agreeing to a CHF10 million cut on humanitarian funding.

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Rothbard and Mises vs. Calhoun on the Natural Right to Secede

There are many reasons to support the breaking up states into smaller pieces. This is done via secession, and acts of secession produce smaller states. All else being equal, smaller states tend to be richer and they tend to have lower taxes. They tend to exercise less power over the resident population—because it's easier for people to escape smaller states than larger ones. Moreover, setting these tangible and practical considerations aside,...

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Does Debt Make Capitalism Financially Unstable?

According to the post-Keynesian School of Economics economist Hyman Minsky, the capitalist economy has an inherent tendency to develop instability that culminates in a severe economic crisis. The key mechanism that pushes the economy toward a crisis is the accumulation of debt. According to Minsky, during “good” times businesses in profitable sectors of the economy are rewarded for increasing their debt levels. The more one borrows, the more profit...

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Tucker Carlson is Not Entirely Wrong About “Libertarian Economics”

Tucker Carlson, who recently announced his own new media network, has been making the podcast rounds, talking to hosts of a variety of different ideological backgrounds. An interview a few weeks ago with Dave Smith had a moment that went viral when both men proclaimed Bill Buckley as a great villain of the 20th Century. (Murray Rothbard would agree.) Recently a new clip with Glenn Greenwald made the social media rounds with Carlson claiming that...

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DC’s Debt Trap

In May this year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated outstanding US government debt next October to be $27,388 billion. By the end of the first quarter of the fiscal year, it will exceed $34,000 billion. It is soaring out of control, and perhaps it is not surprising that the CBO has not updated its forecasts with this debt uncertainty. The CBO also assumed that debt interest costs last year would be $663 billion, when it ended up being $980...

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Potenzial am Anleihenmarkt – DJE-plusNews Dezember 2023 mit Mario Künzel

#leitzins #aktien #anleihen #zins Die US-amerikanische #Notenbank hat gestern – wie erwartet – in ihrer letzten Sitzung für das Jahr 2023 den Leitzins unverändert bei der Spanne von 5,25% bis 5,5% belassen. Das schürt die Hoffnung an den Börsen für Leitzinssenkungen im kommenden Jahr. Die Kapitalmärkte preisen derzeit Leitzinssenkungen von etwa 1,25% bis Ende 2024 und ein sogenanntes “Soft- Landing” ein. Das Strategie-Team von DJE sieht das...

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Fonds im Fokus: DJE-Gründer Dr. Jens Ehrhardt über den DWS Concept DJE Alpha Renten Global

DJE - Gründer und Fondsmanager Dr. Jens Ehrhardt sieht einige Chance für den #Anleihenfonds DWS Concept DJE Alpha Renten Global. 2023 waren kurzlaufende Anleihen attraktiv, aber mit der Aussicht auf #Zinssenkungen im nächsten Jahr kann man nun auch wieder auf längere Laufzeiten setzen. Vor dem Hintergrund eines möglichen wirtschaftlichen Abschwungs wird es besonders wichtig, auf Anleihen mit guter Bonität zu setzen und selektiv bei Aktien...

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The Myth of the Failure of Capitalism

[This essay was originally published as "Die Legende von Versagen des Kapitalismus" in Der Internationale Kapitalismus und die Krise, Festschrift für Julius Wolf (1932)1   The nearly universal opinion expressed these days is that the economic crisis of recent years marks the end of capitalism. Capitalism allegedly has failed, has proven itself incapable of solving economic problems, and so mankind has no alternative, if it is to survive,...

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Elite der Vermögensverwalter 2024: DJE Kapital AG erneut im Top-Ranking (Marketing-Anzeige)

Die #Vermögensverwaltung der DJE Kapital AG wurde vom Fachmagazin #EliteReport gemeinsam mit dem #Handelsblatt schon zum 20. Mal in Folge mit der Bestnote “summa cum laude” ausgezeichnet. DJE-Gründer Dr. Jens Ehrhardt und Christian Janas, Leiter der Vermögensverwaltung, sprachen mit Börsenmoderator Andreas Franik bei der Verleihung der vielbeachteten Prämierung über die Erfolgsgeheimnisse aus fast 50 Jahren Erfahrung am Kapitalmarkt. Der...

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A Rising Stock Market Does Not Drive Economic Growth

Many people believe that a general increase in stock prices is an important factor in economic growth. However, this is a questionable observation. The view that the stock market drives economic growth originates from the observation that changes in stock prices precede changes in economic data. We suggest that various economic indicators are heavily influenced by money supply, which also drives stock prices. The price of something is the amount of...

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Fonds im Fokus: DJE-Gründer Dr. Jens Ehrhardt über den Anleihenfonds DJE – Zins Global

Durch das nun erreichte Zinsplateau bieten sich Anlegerinnen und Anlegern interessante Chancen bei Anleihenfonds wie dem DJE – Zins Global. Dr. Jens Ehrhardt erklärt, wie er den Fonds durch die schwierige Marktlage in 2023 navigiert hat und warum gerade jetzt ein guter Einstiegspunkt für Anleihen gekommen ist. ► Webseite: https://www.dje.de ► Podcast: https://spoti.fi/3AaB1mr ► Impressum: https://www.dje.de/impressum/ Seit über vier...

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Socialism vs. Economic Freedom

[From Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow (1979), Lecture 2, "Socialism" (1958)] I am here in Buenos Aires as a guest of the Centro de Difusión Economía Libre.1 What is economía libre? What does this system of economic freedom mean? The answer is simple: it is the market economy, it is the system in which the cooperation of individuals in the social division of labor is achieved by the market. This market is not a place; it...

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Inflationary Expectations Do Not Cause Inflation

Many economists believe that inflationary expectations cause general increases in prices. For instance, if there is a sharp increase in oil prices, people will form higher inflationary expectations that set in motion general increases in the prices of other goods and services. According to the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, “Undoubtedly, the state of inflation expectations greatly influences actual inflation and thus the central...

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