Category Archive: 9d.) Ray Dalio

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Interest is the United States’ Second Largest Expenditure

2025-10-28

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This year, the US will spend 40% more than it’s taking in. This number is increasing each year — and our debt plays a major role. This is a big problem, especially because cutting our spending is a difficult political issue. And as we continue to add to the debt, the supply-demand picture worsens. I fear that we are approaching the point where we won’t be able to rectify it. @TheProfGPod

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Why I’m Pessimistic About the Debt Problem

2025-10-24

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The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late. It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like. Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice....

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Ray Dalio on His Biggest Failure

2025-10-23

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In the late 1970’s, I calculated that we were going to have a global debt default. I was so confident in what that meant for the markets that I went to Congress to share my perspective. I couldn’t have been more wrong. While several countries defaulted on their debt, the impact on markets was the opposite of what I expected. And I lost a lot of money — for me and for my clients. I had to let all of my employees go. But it was the best experience...

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Ray Dalio on the #1 Issue Facing the United States

2025-10-17

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Ultimately, it’s all about human nature. In my view, the biggest risk we face are our own selfish, mutually-destructive tendencies. If we’re able to rise above them and find compromises, we can avoid the worst possible outcomes. But to do that, we need to stop fighting with each other and align on policies that improve conditions for everyone.

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If you’re worried, you don’t need to worry — and if you’re not worried, you need to worry.

2025-10-10

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One of my principles is that if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry — and if you’re not worried, you need to worry. That’s because worrying about what can go wrong will protect you and not worrying about what can go wrong will leave you exposed.

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Why I’m Pessimistic About the Debt Problem

2025-10-08

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The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late. It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like. Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice....

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Why We Are at an Inflection Point with U.S. Debt

2025-10-06

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I want to explain in a nutshell why the US debt situation is at a very dangerous inflection point. Put simply, the US is now spending 40% more than we’re taking in. This accumulation of debt service payments has spiraled over decades and is starting to squeeze away buying power. And if you run the numbers, there’s an imbalance between how much debt has to be sold, who the buyers are, and the likelihood of it all being bought. Together, these...

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Ray Dalio on the Legitimacy of Bitcoin

2025-10-02

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I can’t say exactly how effective Bitcoin is as a money, but it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money and so is worth paying attention to. Money needs to be both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth — and the latter is more important. I doubt that any central bank will take it on as a reserve currency. That’s because all of the transactions are public, so there’s no privacy to it, and there’s a risk that in the future the...

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How the Economic Machine Works – Part 4

2025-09-29

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This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy. This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur. This is Part 4, I hope you find these helpful.

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How to Hedge Against Risk

2025-09-24

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I like inflation-indexed bonds — or TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities) — because they guarantee a real return. The markets are a zero sum game, and if you’re speculating, you’ll probably be the loser. But these bonds are among the safest asset classes you can find.

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Ray Dalio Explains Gold v. Fiat Currencies

2025-09-23

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Gold is now the second largest reserve currency, behind the US dollar. To understand why, you need to look at the history of fiat currencies (like the dollar) and hard currencies (like gold). The way I see it, we’re currently facing a classic currency devaluation similar to what we saw in the 1970s or the 1930s. In both of those cases, fiat currencies around the world all went down together — and also went down in relationship to hard currencies,...

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Ray Dalio Analyzes AI’s Impact on the Markets

2025-09-19

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The reality is that AI is so revolutionary and so disruptive that it’s very hard to say for sure whether superscalers are currently priced accurately in the markets. But what will be even more impactful and is not adequately priced in is the effect AI is going to have on applications of it on company earnings, efficiencies, and the like. I’m often asked whether these future productivity improvements will convert to the profits and incomes needed...

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Why are UK Debt Costs Higher than the United States’?

2025-09-18

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Ultimately, it all comes back to supply and demand. Debt costs are higher in the UK than in the US because the British pound is no longer a reserve currency. It’s not an effective storeholder of wealth because people aren’t transacting in it like they do with US dollars. Since many people around the world transact in dollars, that increases the demand and ultimately helps when it comes to servicing debt. @MasterInvestorChannel You can watch...

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Ray Dalio’s Thoughts on Democracies with @ChrisWillx

2025-09-17

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The increasing political polarization we’re seeing today isn’t anything new. It’s similar to what we saw in the 1930s, and it’s even something Plato wrote about a couple thousand years ago. In democracies, people vote for their interests. And since people generally want more, politicians want to give it to them — and are willing to go into debt to make that happen. Ultimately, things reach a breaking point where discipline is needed. People want...

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Is the United States less Happy?

2025-09-10

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Is the United States less #happy? #raydalio #principles #happiness #mindfullness #education #healthcare

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The Truth about the U.S. Tariffs

2025-09-09

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There are smart tariffs and there are not smart tariffs. Every type of tax, tariffs included, has pros and cons. Done well, tariffs can provide a source of revenue while simultaneously reducing geopolitical risk. But to be effective, they need to be engineered prudently, efficiently, and surgically.

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The U.S. Dollar Vs. Gold

2025-09-08

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When I look at the US and global debt burdens and how countries are likely to respond, I worry about the possibility of creating a stagflationary environment. Our financial system is dependent on the idea that you can take a debt asset and convert it into money. But now there’s not enough money to go around. That makes the idea of devaluing the dollar relative to other currencies appealing — but the other currencies won’t want much of an...

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How The Economic Machine Works Part 3

2025-09-05

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This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy. This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur. This is Part 3, I hope you find these helpful.

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Ask Me Anything

2025-09-04

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I’m doing an AMA on @reddit today, starting at 1pm ET. I always enjoy hearing from you all, and discussing whatever’s on your mind. So, if you have any questions for me, go check out the Reddit thread linked in the comments. I’ll get to as many as I can.

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My Life Advice for Teenagers

2025-09-03

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THESE are the most important things for teenagers to consider.

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