Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Fed Preview (Full Show EDIT) 8/27/20

2020-08-27

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SEG-1: The Masked Weatherman; The Jackson Hole Meeting SEG-2: The Fed's New Tool! SEG-3: The Negative Effect of Interest Rates on Economic Growth SEG-4: Apple vs Amazon -------- Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-first-trillion-is-always-the-hardest-analyzing-apple-mania/...

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The Perception of Risk vs Reality / Three Minutes on Markets & Money (8/27/20)

2020-08-27

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Why are traders no longer hedging--no perception of risk? Expectations of economic recovery vs what yield spreads are telling us. Unemployment benefits affecting consumer confidence, which is not reflective of markets' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheLanceRobertsShow...

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(8/26/20) The Pre-Hurricane Episode

2020-08-27

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Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP

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(8/26/20) The Pre-Hurricane Episode

2020-08-26

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Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP

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The Expiry of Federal Stimulus (8/26/20)

2020-08-26

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The reality of the March rally is it was based on a temporary infusion of funds to households; the next round of federal stimulus will be smaller...and the subsequent "boost" to the economy will be proportionately less. Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Register for the next Candid Coffee: https://register.gotowebinar.com/rt/1959782027202558734?source=Ria+Website%22 -------- Get more...

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The Pre-Hurricane Episode (Full Show EDIT) 8/26/20)

2020-08-26

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SEG-1: Market Momentum Doesn't Translate into Economic Growth SEG-2: Bump Music; Politics & Promising the Moon SEG-3: The Expiry of Federal Stimulus SEG-4: Allowing Inflation to "Run Hot" -------- Market exuberance over new, all-time highs can sometimes cloud the view from such altitudes, obscuring lessons to be learned from past peaks and subsequent falls. Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff,...

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Markets’ All Time Highs – We’ve Been Here Before / Three Minutes on Markets & Money (8/26/20)

2020-08-26

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Market exuberance over new, all-time highs can sometimes cloud the view from such altitudes, obscuring lessons to be learned from past peaks and subsequent falls. Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheLanceRobertsShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com...

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Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

SP500 Total Real Return, 1905 - 2019
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.

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(8/25/20) Technically Speaking Tuesday

2020-08-26

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Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts

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The Root of Wealth Insecurity [8/25/20]

2020-08-25

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The political and social turmoil that now grips the nation has it's seed in a very fundamental place. Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-why-this-isnt-1920-valuations-returns/ -------- Register for the next Candid Coffee: https://register.gotowebinar.com/rt/1959782027202558734?source=Ria+Website%22 Get more info & commentary:...

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This is Not the Roaring ’20’s | Technically Speaking Tuesday – FULL SHOW [8/25/20]

2020-08-25

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SEG-1: Transformation of Dow Index from "Industrials" SEG-2: Hurricane Preparedness & HEB; Changes in the Dow SEG-2: The Root of Wealth Insecurity SEG-4: 1920 vs 2020: Valuation & What We Pay Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-why-this-isnt-1920-valuations-returns/...

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Why This Isn’t The 1920’s | Three Minutes on Markets & Money [8/25/20]

2020-08-25

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The Roaring '20's: that was then, this is now... and they're not the same. Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-why-this-isnt-1920-valuations-returns/ Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheLanceRobertsShow Visit our...

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The 4.0 percent Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now?

2020-08-24

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2020-08-24

Interest Rates, 1998 - 2020
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the “death of the withdrawal rate” has arrived. What should retirees do now?

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(8/21/20) Financial Fitness Friday

2020-08-22

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Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP

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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.

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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization

2020-07-26

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2020-07-26

Percent of Economies in Recession, 1871-2021
The global recession is an unprecedented recession synchronization. Deflationary Consequences: Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management explains the deflationary consequences of the current global situation in its Second Quarter 2020 Review.

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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Defining Pre-modernism, Modernism, and Postmodernism
No matter how you slice it, markets are human. This even applies to the “algos” as it’s we who write their mechanistic marching orders. Thus, understanding human behavior can be helpful in assessing and anticipating market moves. There’s no choice in the fact that we all need a philosophy to live.

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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans

2020-07-17

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2020-07-17

Second Thoughts on Buying a Home
Millennial renters who were in the market pre-Covid just abandoned their home buying plans. A lifestyle survey shows millennials top the list of those canceling home-buying plans.

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Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market

2020-07-16

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2020-07-16

Apple Fundamental Analysis
Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market. Apple’s stock is up over 20% since the market peak in February. Without a doubt, Apple, the company, is worse off due to the crisis and global recession. Revenue and earnings will be inferior to what Wall Street had forecast at lower stock prices. Valuations, shown below, are now astronomical.

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The Fed Is Trapped In QE As Interest Rates Can’t Rise Ever Again.

2020-07-14

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2020-07-14

Total Debt vs. GDP, 1953-2021
Since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed has entered into the most aggressive monetary campaign. Its goal was to bolster asset markets to restore confidence in the financial system. However, the trap is the Fed is in a position where they can never stop QE as interest rates can’t rise ever again.

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