Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell's statements following this week's FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon...

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(9/22/22) The Fed jacked rates up 75-basis points, as expected, and held out the possibility of at least two more rate hikes this year. The thing that shocked markets was the implication by Jerome Powell that higher rates would be here to stay throughout 2023, barring a recession or credit-related event that might cause the Fed to reverse policy. Markets in response sold off, taking out lows established back in May, an important support level we've...

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(9/22/22) It's a Trifecta Thursday with the onset of Autumn and the Death of the Roberts' Duber; the Fed raises rates 75-basis points, as expected, but shocks markets by saying higher rates are here to stay through 2023...unless something occurs to cause a change in stance. The Fed's "good intentions" vs reality; markets are now on the same page. The impact of higher rates on Bonds: TINA, FOMO, & YOLO in the Bond market; the...

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(9/21/22) The Fed is expected today to raise interest rates by 75-basis points, but the real headline will come from the statement that's issued after the meeting is over: Will Jerome Powell reiterate his hawkish claims from Jackson Hole, or will he backpedal? That news will drive markets into the afternoon. As the Fed continues its rate hike campaign, Treasuries are responding in kind, and at this point, Bonds are cheaper relative to stocks. (A...

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(9/1/) The Fed is expected to hike interest rates another 75-basis points today. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot, consisting of the FOMC voting members' positions on interest rates, suggests rates will be at 4.5% by 03, and remain there into 04. Bonds are extremely cheap relative to stocks. This is debunking the TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome. As rates rise, those with pensions must consider whether taking monthly distributions or a lump sum is in...

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(9/20/22) The latest two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins today; markets rallied off the May support line in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's remarks tomorrow. It's expected the Fed will hike rates 75-basis points as it continues to fight inflation by slowing the economy, a phenomenon with which the Fed is apparently comfortable. That means earnings will have to come down even more so than already forecast, putting more...

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(9/20/22) It's turning into a sloppy September for markets, even though support held at May's lows on Monday. Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, with markets anticipating the group's next move upward on rates by 75bp. Why is Jerome Powell okay with "below trend" economic growth? The trap of investors' "anchoring;" the Fed's view of markets is the only one that counts. Some economic pain is okay...the Fed is going to act...

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