Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The RMD Nightmare on Elm Street

2023-10-20

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(10/20/23) A bit of flavored coffee commentary to launch the show, 10-yr Treasuries hit 5%, and investor psychology hits the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says inflation is still too high; the MIddle East War is going to get worse. We're in The Fourth Turning, and interest rates will be raised again in 2024. Mini-book review: "The Fourth Turning" and "Constellations." The issue of entitlement vs the feeling that comes from...

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What Will Powell Say Next?

2023-10-19

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(10/19/23) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is on the prowl this week: Will it be 'higher for long,' more rate hikes, or have higher interest rates done enough? Those are the big questions to be answered this afternoon. Markets sold off on Wednesday; Netflix & Abbott reported strong earnings (on lowered estimates!) but the Israeli War and Oil Price performance trapped investors between the two (oil prices are not spiking due to War. Interest rate...

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Is ‘The Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming?

2023-10-18

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(10/18/23) Retail Sales doubled in September...but, on non-retail store sales; non-seasonally adjusted sales were acutally down 5%. All nuymbers are subject to revision. This is how we formulate government economic policy, on backwards-looking, lagging data. Markets started lower in Tuesday, but rallied before the close to end essentially unchanged on the day. There's not much concern in earnings reports. Harry Dent's dire predictions of an 80%...

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Consequences Are Always Unintended

2023-10-17

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(10/17/23) Earnings Season is in full swing, with Big Banks reporting this week. More interesting than earnings results will be forward outlooks. The unknown is the unintended consequences of COVID-era government funding that has yet to be spent: Those funds could prevent a recession, and even provide the mythical "soft landing" or NO landing the Fed would like to see. Meanwhile, markets continue to consolidate, not going anywhere in a...

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Fear & Loathing on Wall Street

2023-10-16

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(10/16/23) The Israel & Ukraine wars are creating international fear, while domestically, US consumer sentiment is sinking as economic realities of higher interest rates and student loan payments resume. Big Banks' earnings season beginning this week; generally, earnings are down about 3% when Tech and Energy are not included; market futures are flat this morning after declining performance last Thursday and Friday; year-end repositioning is...

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When Life Gets in the Way of Retirement

2023-10-13

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(10/13/23) The value of delayed gratification is observed in the orgy of early holiday decorations and Rich's self-control involving candy corn math; a discussion of CPI, inflation, and sticky prices. Breakfast cereal inflation, candy corn pumpkins, and recovering from financial shocks in Retirement: Rethinking allocations. Interest rates and Bond pricing; safe havens: Where are all the crypto fans now? The DAD Retirement Plan (and living inside...

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The Real Investment Show (10/12/23)

2023-10-12

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(10/12/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Impact of the Israeli Conflict" is here: -TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement &...

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The Simplicity of Bonds

2023-10-10

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They're the simplest, yet least-understood investment. What interest rates mean; Sin stocks, ESG, & FAANG stocks: knowing the narrative. Stocks vs Bonds & relative valuations (with charts!) What Howard Marks said; Why interest rates and bond yields go up and down; psychology is a difficult factor in portfolio management. 0:30 - The Thing About Bonds 9:59 - Sin Stocks, ESG's, & FAANG Stocks vs Bonds Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief...

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The Flight to Safety? (10/10/23)

2023-10-10

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(10/10/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info...

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Bone Yields Explained

2023-10-06

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(10/9/23) Why are bond yields going up? Looking at liquidation event = $50b in one week; is something in the financial system beginning to break? Bond Yields explains; Yield & Coupons are different thing; coupons = interest rate. Girl Math vs Guy Math. There's blood all over the Bond Market; what happens next? SEG-1 - Why are Bond Yields going up? SEG-2 - Bond Yields Explained Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts,...

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The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement & Reality

2023-10-06

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(10/6/23) Elvis Rosso: Yields, Yields, Yields; American's are spending like there's no tomorrow; why we recommend "The Millionaire Next Door;" How to vacation post-pandemic; camping in Buc-cee's. The downside of the lockdown; credit card rate survey; vacation spending vs money scripts: Money is emotional. Money needs shift when children arrive; talking to kids about money. Creating savings buckets for specific needs; noting the frugality...

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What do 90’s Hairdo’s and Long Term Capital Management Have in Common?

2023-10-05

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(10/5/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors hief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, IO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, FA Produced by Brent lanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "ould the Market orrection Go Deeper?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for...

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Progression Planning for a Life Well-Lived

2023-10-04

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(9/30/23) Richard Rosso & Danny Ratliff explore the sensitive subject of how to plan for your demise. 0:00 - Intro/Disclaimer 1:24 - What is "Progression Planning?" 3:06 - Jumping through emotional hurdles 9:40 - Communication Ideas 14:02 - The Documents You Need 29:20 - Digital Assets 34:50 - Important Resources 41:14 - Long Term Care 43:10 - Digitizing Memories 45:14 - How we can help 48:41 - Q&A: How to avoid the Probate...

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Is Something in the Financial System Beginning to Break?

2023-10-04

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(10/4/23) There's a new job opening in ongress: Speaker of the House can be filled by any US citizen. We recommend Newt Gingrich or Judge Ted Poe (likely neither want the gig). Was yesterday's market action a 'liquidation event?' JOLTS data within a downward trend; market sell off to test the 200-DMA. This is a normal correction underway; could it go lower? Homeless Pirates now the scourge of Northern alifornia (where's apt. Phillips?); speeding...

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Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for Investors?

2023-10-03

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(10/3/23) Investors are looking for stronger economic data; positioning is beginning to emerge for End-of-year; 2024 will be different, with companies' debt maturing and refinancing at higher rates. VIX has been on the rise since September, seeming now to peak. What happened to all those "de-dollarization" stories? The currency is over-bought following a dollar rally. What the ISM is telling us; cycles are sentiment-based. Look for a...

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Congress Kicks the Can Down the Road (again)

2023-10-02

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(10/2/23) Free the Pumpkins, it's October 2nd! Student Loan payments resume, and markets prepare for another earnings season. Expectations have declined, and markets are setting up for a technical rally into 2024. Market futures are flat following the aversion of government shutdown with (another) continued resolution. Why CR's are not good for the economy; mandatory spending explained (it's 2% of GDP). Mandatory Spending = 113% of revenue...

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The Flaws in Secure Act 2.0

2023-09-29

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(9/29/23) Candy Corn martini's & market commentary; why Larry Fink won't be surprised with higher structural inflation: Permatory inflation. No one is ready for rates to be higher for longer. The uptick in 401-k loans and why we can't save: More credit card debt, car payments, and mortgage payments. Flaw in Secure Act 2.0: Elimination of some catch-up provisions. Boosting the Roth: Paying taxes now before taxes increase, which they will. Mrs....

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Is the Fed Walking Into a Trap?

2023-09-28

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(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession....

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More Nonsense from Jamie Dimon (9/27/23)

2023-09-27

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(9/27/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest the Downside Today?" is here: _gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Be Wronger for...

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Are Compound Market Returns a Myth?

2023-09-26

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(9/26/23) Some market volatility due to quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios. Some downside risk remains. Markets are in search of a catalyst, and trading at the mercy of rebalancing activity. Compounding Market Returns: Mythical or real? Albert Einstein called compound interest the 8th Wonder of the World. It's not the same with market returns (charts for illustration). Calculating yield and coupons for bond investors; understanding investing...

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