Category Archive: 5.) Charles Hugh Smith

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Why America Decays: The Tyranny of Self-Interest

2022-06-01

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2022-06-01

Only those societies which still have a functional public interest / common good will survive; those ruled by the tyranny of self-interest will fall. I've discussed the moral rot consuming the American Project in blog posts and my books.

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Livelihoods in a Degrowth Economy

2022-05-30

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2022-05-30

The sooner we start preparing for degrowth, the better off we'll be. A Chinese proverb captures this succinctly: By the time you're thirsty, it's too late to dig a well. Let's consider livelihood options in an unsustainable economy of extremes that are unraveling, an economy that is being forced to transition to Degrowth.

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What Could Go Right?

2022-05-25

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2022-05-25

Our economy is not resilient or antifragile, it's a fragile sand castle of debt and denial. What could go off the cliff that hasn't already gone off the cliff? Rip-roaring inflation, check.Hot war in Europe, check. Global food crisis, check. Semi-permanent supply-chain snarls, check. Geopolitical blackmail, check.

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The Solution for Social Media Spam Bots Is Already Here

2022-05-23

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2022-05-23

The right of free speech should not be confused with an obligation for privately owned enterprises to allow spamming and spoofing under the guise of free speech. The problem of bots on Twitter is in the news. This is of course a problem in all social media: fake accounts, spamming accounts, spoofing (expropriating your identity) accounts, and so on, all courtesy of anonymous account creation.

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The Epidemic Nobody Talks About: Burnout

2022-05-21

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2022-05-21

Burnout makes everyone uncomfortable, so it's largely a silent epidemic. Epidemics are not just biological in origin. A strong case can be made that a silent epidemic has been sweeping the nation for years, an epidemic few acknowledge: burnout.

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Checking In On Five Long-Term Cycles

2022-05-17

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2022-05-17

The decline phase of S-Curves can be gradual or a cliff-dive. Way back in 2007 I charted five long-wave cycles that I reckoned consequential: 1. Public debt (accumulating federal deficits) 2. Inflation 3. Oil (energy) 4. Interest rates 5. Speculative fever

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Curveballs in the Housing Bubble Bust

2022-05-16

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2022-05-16

All these curveballs will further fragment the housing market. Oh for the good old days of a nice, clean housing bubble and bust as in 2004-2011: subprime lending expanded the pool of buyers, liar loans and loose credit created speculative leverage, the Federal Reserve provided excessive liquidity and the watchdogs of the industry were either induced (ahem) to look away or dozed off in a haze of gross incompetence.

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Herd on the Street

2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

The casino has become complex and there are no easy answers or predictable paths. The Wall Street herd had it easy from 2009 to 2021. Life was simple and life was good: markets were easy to predict.

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What Happens When Complexity Unravels?

2022-05-10

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2022-05-10

Those glancing at the appearances will be assured all is well and it will all sort itself out. Those who look behind the screen will move away as fast as they can. When finances tighten, there are two choices: cut expenses or increase revenues. Monopolies, cartels and governments can increase revenues by increasing taxes or the price of goods and services because users /customers / taxpayers have no alternative.

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Not the 1970s or the 1920s: We’re in Uncharted Territory

2022-05-08

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2022-05-08

All of these similarities and differences are setting up a sea-change revaluation of capital, resources and labor that will be on the same scale as the extraordinary transitions of the 1920s and 1970s.

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The Contrarian Curse

2022-05-07

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2022-05-07

What if all the new consensus memes are as wrong as the ones they replaced? I have the Contrarian Curse, and I have it bad. The Contrarian Curse is: as soon as the herd adopts your previously contrarian view, you start questioning the new consensus, just as you questioned the previous consensus.

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Is Housing a Bubble That’s About to Crash?

2022-05-05

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2022-05-05

We are all prone to believing the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. But in times of dynamic reversals, the past is an anchor thwarting our progress, not a forecast. Are we heading into another real estate bubble / crash?

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Doom Porn and Empty Optimism

2022-04-29

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2022-04-29

If we can't discern the difference between doom-porn and investing in self-reliance, then solutions will continue to be out of reach. I'm often accused of calling 783 of the last two bubble pops (or was it 789? Forgive the imprecision). Like many others who have publicly explored the notion that the status quo isn't actually sustainable despite its remarkable tenaciousness, I am pilloried as a doom-and-gloomer (among other things, ahem).

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Crash Is King

2022-04-26

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2022-04-26

This may be one of many revaluations of capital vis a vis labor and resources and core vis a vis periphery. You've heard the expression "cash is king." Very true. But it's equally true that "crash is king:" when speculative excesses collapse under their own extremes, the crash crushes all other narratives and becomes the dominant dynamic.

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What’s Your Plan A, B and C?

2022-04-22

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2022-04-22

Nothing unravels quite as dramatically as systems which are presumed to be rock-solid and forever. Here's the default Bullish case for stocks and the economy: let's call it Plan Zero. 1. The economy and equities can grow forever (a.k.a. infinite growth on a finite planet in a waste-is-growth Landfill Economy)

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A Couple of Thoughts on Big Numbers

2022-04-20

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2022-04-20

Let's ask "cui bono" of the $33 trillion in added debt and the $9 trillion added to GDP: to whose benefit? I've been thinking about how hard it is to get our heads around big numbers.

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Debt Saturation: Off the Cliff We Go

2022-04-19

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2022-04-19

When the system can't borrow more and distribute the insolvency, it implodes. I started writing about debt saturation back in 2011. The basic idea is we can continue to borrow and spend as long as one of two conditions hold: 1) real (inflation-adjusted) income is rising, so there's more income to service additional debt, or 2) the cost of borrowing declines so the same income can support more debt.

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Yes, It Is Different This Time

2022-04-15

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2022-04-15

Most people would be horrified by a 40% decline in their "investments." When bubbles pop, speculative assets don't drop 40%, they drop 90% or even 98%.

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For Freak’s Sake, People, Even the Crash Test Dummies Are Nervous

2022-04-08

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2022-04-08

Those trusting the Fed to be visibly weak, corrupt and incompetent forever might be in for an unwelcome surprise. When even the crash test dummies are nervous, it pays to pay attention. Being in a mild crash isn't too bad if all the protective devices inflate as intended. But in a horrific crash where nothing goes as planned, it's like speeding in a ready-to-explode Pinto and being side-swiped by a semi on Dead Man's Curve.

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It’s All the Aliens’ Fault

2022-04-03

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2022-04-03

As for our central banks' defaulting on their lines of credit with the Martian Central Bank--that's another alien intervention we'll live to regret. I hope this won't shock the more sensitive readers too greatly, but I've discovered undeniable evidence that all our planet's problems are the result of alien intervention. Yes, aliens exist and are actively intervening in humanity's activities, to our great detriment. Wars, plagues, The...

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