Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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In 1982 the Fed missed an opportunity; it still haunts us [Ep. 267, Eurodollar University]

2022-07-25

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On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees and ignoring the forest.

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Ask Bob: Is Maxing Out Your 401k A Good Investment Decision?

2022-07-20

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2022-07-20

Since the beginning of 401(k) plans in 1978, people have considered it to be the quintessential retirement plan—you get to save money before taxes and in most cases, the company puts money into your account, too. What could be better than that? But now, 44 years later, it’s time to take a broader look at 401(k)s that considers taxes on 401(k) distributions.

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Yield Curve Inversion ‘Infection’ Spreading [Ep. 263, Eurodollar University]

2022-07-20

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The US Treasury yield curve continues to spread and has reached the 52-week bill. The Fed is being told by the market it will be CUTTING rates, soon.

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Own These Assets To Survive The Bear Market

2022-07-19

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Hot inflation is crashing corporate profits, as consumer spending falls and the Fed's rate hikes make the cost of capital more expensive. As a result, stocks remain under pressure and bond default risks grow.

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Why Are Foreigners Happy with Bond ‘Losses’? [Ep. 262, Eurodollar University]

2022-07-18

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Foreign institutions have been merrily losing money on US Treasury holdings for years, buying high and selling low - are they insane? No, their investment behavior reveals that these bonds are used for managing risk, global systemic risk.

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Weekly Market Pulse: There Is No Certainty In Investing

2022-07-18

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2022-07-18

Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost universally dismal track record.

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4 Social Security Changes to Expect in 2023

2022-07-15

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2022-07-15

Looking into a crystal ball and prognosticating the future is always a risky endeavor, but when it comes to Social Security and the year 2023 there are 4 things that have a high probability of happening.

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The Economist Reviews Pandemic Goods Boom 2020-22 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 261]

2022-07-14

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The Economist recounts how the pandemic led to a goods-consumption-boom and whether post-pandemic economics means normalization, or a services boom or a recession.

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The Economist Notes UK’s Economy was Maimed 15 Years Ago [Eurodollar University, Ep. 260]

2022-07-13

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The Economist admits to, warns of and draws attention to Britain's 15-year economic depression, labeling it a "slow-burning crisis", "long-standing", "stagnation nation" and "a chronic disease". There are many devastating socioeconomic, geopolitical consequences. It's not just Britain, it's the world.

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Weekly Market Pulse: A Most Unusual Economy

2022-07-11

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2022-07-11

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. Both found things in the report to support their preconceived notions about the state of the economy.

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MacroVoices #331 Jeff Snider: The Eurodollar Curve Says Deflation Not Inflation

2022-07-10

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MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to the show. Jeff says that monetary inflation is NOT the cause of out-of-control consumer prices, and he doesn’t see stagflation as a big risk.

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The Market Is Playing Tug of War With the Fed

2022-07-08

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On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path.

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Wasting Money on Medicare

2022-07-07

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2022-07-07

How would you like to waste a lot of the money you spend on Medicare coverage and miss a bunch of the benefits Medicare provides? Crazy question. But that’s exactly what’s happening to millions of Medicare beneficiaries. In October 2021, the insurance website MedicareAdvantage.com published the results of its most recent survey of Medicare beneficiaries.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Things That Need To Happen

2022-07-05

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2022-07-05

Perspective is something that comes with age I think. Certainly, as I’ve gotten older, my perspective on things has changed considerably. As we age, we tend to see things from a longer-term view.

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Demand Down, Supply Down, Ugly Up

2022-07-03

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2022-07-03

Well, that was a mess. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey was at first released before being taken back. Initially reported as a plunge in the headline number, it was quickly scrapped once the statisticians remembered they had just discontinued their average workweek component – but had kept a zero in its place when tallying the overall PMI.

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Getting Whipped Will Really Hurt

2022-07-02

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2022-07-02

The Federal Reserve’s various branches don’t just do manufacturing surveys anymore. This is a modern economy, after all, meaning industry isn’t the same top dog as what it used to be. While still important, and still able to tear down even the global-iest synchronized of growth-y, services are the big macro enchilada.

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Wait A Sec, That’s Not Really An *RMB* Liquidity Pool…

2022-07-01

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2022-07-01

Ben Bernanke once admitted how the job of the post-truth “central banker” is to try to convince the market to do your work for you. What he didn’t say was that this was the only prayer officials had for any success. Because if the market ever decided that talk wasn’t enough, only real money in hand would do, everyone’d be screwed.

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Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

2022-07-01

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2022-07-01

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.

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It’s Inventory PLUS Demand

2022-06-30

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2022-06-30

It’s not just the flood of never-ending inventory. That’s a huge and growing problem, sure, as the chickens of last year’s short-termism overordering finally come home to their retailer roost. Being stuck with too many goods isn’t necessarily fatal to the global and domestic manufacturing sectors.

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Letting Retirees Save for Healthcare Tax-Free

2022-06-29

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2022-06-29

Health Savings Accounts (HSA) for retired folks. Isn’t that a novel idea? But it’s being considered in Congress—The Health Savings for Seniors Act, H.R. 3796.

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