Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit

2023-01-24

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2023-01-24

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months.

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Consensus Will Be Wrong

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business.

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Great News! Consumer Sentiment Is Awful!

2023-01-04

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2023-01-04

I don’t know how many times I’ve seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Holidays

2022-12-20

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2022-12-20

We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Envy

2022-12-12

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2022-12-12

Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair Charles Munger recently stated: “The world is not driven by greed.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Currency Illusion

2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately,...

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The IRS Will Tax Less of an Estate in 2023

2022-11-17

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2022-11-17

In 2012, the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) established, for the first time, a permanent estate tax and gift tax exemption. The exemption is the amount an individual can pass on at death without paying estate taxes. The legislation set the exemption at $5 million per person, indexed for inflation.

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2023 Retirement Plan Contribution Limits

2022-11-15

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2022-11-15

Worried about saving enough for retirement? You can put away more next year. The IRS has just announced the new retirement plan contribution limits for 2023. The contribution limit for employees who participate in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan increases to $22,500, up from $20,500.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News

2022-11-14

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2022-11-14

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday.

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The Cleanest Dirty Shirt

2022-10-28

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2022-10-28

It’s easy to overestimate the problems the United States faces while underestimating its strengths. The challenges are certainly significant. Politics have seldom been so divisive. The government is running an annual deficit of over a trillion dollars, with a total debt many times that. Inflation has spiked. The Fed has been hiking interest rates at a pace that could imperil the economy.

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Powell’s Epiphany: There is No Free Lunch p2 Neutralizing the Money is Inflationary

2022-10-25

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2022-10-25

Pandemic Wealth Effect. The top 1% of the US made about $14T or $4.2M per person. The next 19% made about $20T or $318,000 per person. The next 30% made about $5T or $50,000 per person. The bottom 50% made about $1T or $6,000 per person. The resulting inflation is at a 40yr high and Powell wants the money back.

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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money Series – Dawn Of A New Era

2022-10-25

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2022-10-25

With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, and interest rates.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Did Powell Just Blink?

2022-10-24

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2022-10-24

Did Jerome Powell blink last Friday? It was just before the market open Friday and interest rates were jumping higher, as they had all week. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.33%, another 11 basis points higher than the previous close and 32 basis points higher than the previous week’s close.

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Market Currents: Fed Confusion

2022-10-20

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2022-10-20

The Federal Reserve seems confused about its role in inflation and unemployment. Alhambra’s Steve Brennan and Joe Calhoun discuss it.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

2022-10-17

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2022-10-17

Markets were rather volatile last week. That’s a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rear view mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan, goofy as it is.

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It’s Time to Tackle the Year-End Financial Checklist

2022-10-12

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2022-10-12

Here we are again in the final quarter of the year when thoughts turn to Thanksgiving and Christmas and… reviewing your financial house. Oh, that’s not on your list? Well, let’s put it there because financial issues cannot be on automatic pilot. Things change and you need to keep current. Here are 16 items you need to review before the end of the year.

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause

2022-10-11

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2022-10-11

The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish.

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Market Currents: Don’t Listen to Buy and Hold Investing Advice

2022-10-07

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2022-10-07

For decades a Buy and Hold strategy was a staple of financial advice. But should it be? Alhambra CEO separates myth and reality.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2022-10-04

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2022-10-04

Are investors at the point of maximum pessimism? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about a horrible 3rd quarter, sentiment, and where investors can look right now.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Peak Pessimism?

2022-10-03

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2022-10-03

Goodbye and good riddance to the third quarter of 2022. That was one of the wildest 3 months I’ve experienced in my 40 years of trading and investing. The quarter started off great with the S&P 500 rising 14% from July 1 to August 16 but ended with a 17% swan dive into the end of the quarter. And we closed on the low of the year.

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