Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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Inflation Conditions Absent, Someone Call Jay

2020-10-12

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 5:45 AM EDT Not just payroll data, either. The JOLTS data also keeps backing up this idea of a slowdown forming in the trajectory of both the CES and CPS series. More and more it looks like the economy is running out of momentum well short of the finish line.

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It Just Isn’t Enough

2020-10-10

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2020-10-10

Unemployment Insurance, Initial Jobless Claims, 1980-2020
The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state.

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Is There Enough?

2020-10-08

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2020-10-08

IHS Markit US Composite, 2012-2020
It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time.

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

2020-10-06

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2020-10-06

CPS Household Survey: Civilian Labor Force Level, 2007-2020
The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September (VIDEO)

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and Alhambra's Bob Williams look at data from the past month and discuss what it means for the economy.

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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flyin’ Upward? Bidin’ Bond Time Trumps Jay

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

It’s always something. There’s forever some mystery factor standing in the way. On the topic of inflation, for years it was one “transitory” issue after another. The media, on behalf of the central bankers it holds up as a technocratic ideal, would report these at face value. The more obvious explanation, the argument with all the evidence, just couldn’t be true otherwise it’d collapse the technocracy right down to the ground.And so it was also in...

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Lyn Alden/Jeff Snider (QE, Deflation, Inflation, Dollar, Eurodollar System, Future US Economy)

2020-10-01

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The Rebel Capitalist show helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom. ✅ Want to take your investing to the next level? Check out my new online investing forum!! I've partnered with Lyn Alden and Chris MacIntosh to bring you the best investment tool on the internet...Rebel Capitalist Pro. Check out our special offer at https://www.GeorgeGammon.com/pro For more content that'll help you build wealth...

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What’s Zambia Got To With It (everything)

2020-10-01

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2020-10-01

Argentina Bank
As one of Africa’s largest copper producers, it seemed like a no-brainer. Financial firms across the Western world, pension funds from the US or banks in Europe, they lined up for a bit of additional yield. This was 2012, still global recovery on the horizon – at least that’s what “they” all kept saying.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020

2020-09-30

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2020-09-30

US Industrial Production Index
The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn’t that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end.

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Jeff Snider’s Eurodollars and Lacy Hunt’s monetary policy in 10 Minutes

2020-09-28

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I've been watching videos from Jeff Snider, Lacy Hunt, Steve Van Meter and Brent Johnson for months and I've slowly built up a mental framework for what they are talking about.

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28 Brent Johnson and Jeff Snider (also ‘George Gobel’)

2020-09-25

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Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Jeff Snider to discuss central banks, public relations, modern monetary theory, politically-directed investment and whether the future ahead is a bright or dark one. Also, brown shoes.

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Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid

2020-09-24

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2020-09-24

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, 2007-2020
Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008.

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Jeff Snider: What happens if Dollar LOSES RESERVE STATUS? (RCS Ep75)

2020-09-23

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Topics: What would happen to the US economy long term if the Dollar is no longer the global reserve currency? US privilege/burden since Bretton Woods. Euro dollar system: what’s wrong with it? Hypothetically, how would it have been better/more sustainable?

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If Dollar Is Fixed By Jay’s Flood, Why So Many TIC-ked At Corporates in July?

2020-09-21

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2020-09-21

When the eurodollar system worked, or at least appeared to, not only did the overflow of real effective (if virtual and confusing) currency “weaken” the US dollar’s exchange value, its enormous excess showed up as more and more foreign holdings of US$ assets.

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27.3 US Retail Sales and Industrial Production in AUG

2020-09-20

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What do the latest figures tell us about the world's most important consumer? Jeff Snider reviews retail sales, industrial production and asks what is it that is missing from our post 2007-08 economy that precludes robust recovery.

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Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

2020-09-20

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2020-09-20

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday.

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12 States That Keep Retirement Dollars in Your Pocket

2020-09-18

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2020-09-18

Map courtesy AARP
“Will I outlive my money?” That’s one of the biggest concerns for most retirees. There’s the high cost of medical care, which gets more expensive all the time. There’s inflation, which raises the cost of goods and services, eating into your retirement budget.

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Medical Reimbursement Accounts

2020-09-17

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2020-09-17



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China’s Hole Puzzle

2020-09-16

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2020-09-16

China Fixed Asset Investment, 2012-2020
One day short of one year ago, on September 16, 2019, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported its updated monthly estimates for the Big 3 accounts. Industrial Production (IP) is a closely-watched indicator as it is relatively decent proxy for the entire goods economy around the world. Retail Sales in the post-Euro$ #2 context give us a sense of the Chinese economy’s persistent struggle to try to “rebalance” without the pre-2008 boost...

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Inflation Karma

2020-09-15

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2020-09-15

CPI Changes on Energy, 1995-2020
There is no oil in the CPI’s consumer basket, yet oil prices largely determine the rate by which overall consumer prices are increasing (or not). WTI sets the baseline which then becomes the price of motor fuel (gasoline) becoming the energy segment. As energy goes, so do headline CPI measurements.

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