Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Week Ahead: Inflation Gauges and Stretched US Dollar Drop

2024-08-24

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2024-08-24

In the middle of last week, the Fed funds futures discounted 103 bp of cuts this year. There was some movement but after Fed Chair Powell’s, but the market finished the week with 104 bp of cuts priced into the Fed funds futures curve. The two-year note yield settled at a three-week low and the dollar slumped. The Dollar Index's 1.7% lost last week, its fifth consecutive drop and the largest weekly decline of the year. Although the euro rose to...

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What Can Powell Say that the Markets Do Not Already Know?

2024-08-23

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2024-08-23

Overview: The US is consolidating with a softer profile against most G10 and emerging market currencies today, ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole (10 AM ET). He is unlikely to go much beyond confirming what the market already thinks it knows: namely, that the first rate cut will be delivered next month. By acknowledging that the economy has evolved broadly along the lines the central bank expected, it would be a gently push against...

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The Dollar and Rates Come Back Firmer

2024-08-22

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2024-08-22

The US dollar's decline continued yesterday after the steep jobs’ revision and an unusual solid auction of the Treasury's 20-year bond. The minutes from the recent meeting confirmed that the FOMC will begin its easing cycle next month.

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US Benchmark Payroll Revisions Over-Hyped? Dollar may Benefit from Buying on Fact after Being Sold on Rumors

2024-08-21

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2024-08-21

Overview: The preliminary annual revision to US jobs growth is front and center today. It has gotten more play that usual, amid speculation of a historically large revision. Yet, the direct impact on policy may be minimal. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell, acknowledged that the payroll growth may have been overstated. Moreover, the Fed's judgment of the labor market is not based on one element of the multidimensional labor market....

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Gold Technical Analysis – Flash US PMIs in focus

2024-08-21

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#gold #xauusd #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for Gold. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:43 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 2:13 Upcoming Catalysts....

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USD Remains Soft but Consolidation is Threatened

2024-08-20

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2024-08-20

Overview: The US dollar's recent retreat has been marginally extended today but it seems to be moderating. Still, the greenback is on the defensive, arguably ahead of tomorrow's BLS annual revisions of nonfarm payrolls, where there is talk that April 2023-March 2024 job growth could be slashed from 2.9 mln to 1.9 mln. And that is ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole address by Fed Chief Powell that is expected to be the strongest confirmation of a rate...

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USDJPY Technical Analysis – The trend is still skewed to the downside

2024-08-20

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#usdjpy #forex #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for the USDJPY pair. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 1:06 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 2:52 Upcoming Economic Data....

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Dollar Losses Extended, Led by the Japanese Yen

2024-08-19

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2024-08-19

Overview: The dollar settled last week on a soft note, and follow-through selling today pushed it lower against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today. Just as some observers were talking about a resumption of the yen carry-trades, the yen has popped up. The yen has a little more than 2.2% against the dollar Friday and today. Unlike previous yen surge, the Antipodeans (candidates for the long leg of the carry trades) have traded...

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Gold Technical Analysis – Will the breakout hold?

2024-08-19

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#gold #xauusd #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for Gold. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:38 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 1.59 Upcoming Catalysts....

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Solana (SOL) price prediction: Bullish vs. bearish scenarios for the future value of SOL

2024-08-18

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The price prediction video analyzes the current price action of Solana (SOL) and presents both bullish and bearish scenarios. For a bullish trend, SOL needs to close above the $175 resistance level for two consecutive weeks, potentially targeting $294. In a bearish scenario, closing below the $125 support level for two weeks could lead to a drop towards $65. Key technical indicators, such as anchored VWAP bands, provide additional insights into...

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The Dollar Softens into the Weekend

2024-08-16

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2024-08-16

Overview: The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 currencies today. The New Zealand dollar is the strongest, which might fit into the narrative that the carry trades are making a comeback, but the yen and Swiss franc are the next strongest in the G10. And for the second consecutive week, Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds. Rather than new carry trades, we suspect that it is a dollar move. The euro is trading near $1.10, and...

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USDJPY Technical Analysis – Strong US data finally leads to a breakout

2024-08-16

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#usdjpy #forex #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for the USDJPY pair. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:37 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 1:59 Upcoming Economic Data....

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Data Thursday but Markets Unimpressed

2024-08-15

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2024-08-15

Overview: An eerie calm hangs over the foreign exchange market on this the anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement 53 years ago today. Narrow ranges are dominating. Strong Australian jobs data and a cautious Norwegian central bank have underpinned their respective currencies today. A firm Q2 UK GDP appears to have given sterling a boost. The euro and the Swiss franc are struggling, while the yen is recording its narrowest range in...

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Gold Technical Analysis – Struggling to break a key resistance

2024-08-15

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#gold #xauusd #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for Gold. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:52 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 2:25 Upcoming Catalysts....

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Is the US CPI Anti-Climactic?

2024-08-14

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2024-08-14

Overview: Today's US CPI is the focus but the bar to a Fed cut next month is low, and it could prove anti-climactic. The more moderate inflation reading creates more space for the central bank to respond to signs of a continued slowing of the US labor market and adopt less restrictive policy. The dollar is mixed as the North American session gets under way. The rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, not a total surprise, but has seen fall 1%....

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USDJPY Technical Analysis – Trading in a tight range ahead of the US CPI

2024-08-14

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#usdjpy #forex #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for the USDJPY pair. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:59 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 2:12 Upcoming Economic Data....

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NZDUSD keeps running. Above 100 day MA and 61.8% retracement target

2024-08-13

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The most recent break is above swing level at 0.60627

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AUDUSD has extended higher and tests a key target near the 61.8% retracement

2024-08-13

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The 61.8% retracement target comes in near 0.66262 which is with a swing area between 0.66189 and 0.66279

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USDJPY falls below the 100 hour moving average and targets the 200 hour MA next

2024-08-13

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The 200 hour MA comes in at 146.67. The low has reached 146.697

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GBPUSD breaks above a key technical level near 1.2810 & extended higher. That is now risk

2024-08-13

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The break opens the door to the 50% at 1.28537 and a swing area between 1.2845 and 12867

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