Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Pressure on the Greenback Remains Ahead of the Jobs Report and Powell, while European bonds Stabilize

2025-03-07

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2025-03-07

Overview: The greenback's drop has been extended today against most of the G10 currencies, but not the growth-sensitive dollar bloc, which is underperforming today. Still, ahead of the US jobs report and Fed Chair Powell's speech on the economic outlook, all the G10 currencies have appreciated by at least 1% this week. The Swedish krona's 6.7% rise tops the board, but the euro's 4.7% rally is its best weekly performance since 2009. The Turkish lira...

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USDCAD moves outside consolidation area below 1.4268 to 1.4279. Now close resistance.

2025-03-06

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The sellers in the USDCAD have pushed the pair outside the "Red Box" that was home to price action pre-tariff volatility.

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USDJPY bounces off support target. What next?

2025-03-06

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The USDJPY swing area between 147.23 to 147.338 stalls the fall

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Kickstart the FX trading day for March 6 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

2025-03-06

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The EURUSD is little changed ahead of the ECB rate decision. The USDJPY is lower by 0.80%.

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European Bond Rout Continues Ahead of ECB Meeting

2025-03-06

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2025-03-06

Overview:  The run on the dollar has been extended today but it has stalled in the European morning. As North American traders return to their posts, the Australian and Canadian dollars, along with sterling are lower on the day. Higher than expected Swedish inflation has helped put the krona on the top of the G10 with more than a 1% gain. It is at its best level against the euro in a couple of years. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led...

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AUDUSD buyers make a play to the upside. Can they keep the momentum going?

2025-03-05

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The price moves above its 100 and 200 hour MAs. Swing area on the topside is also breached.

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The 200-day moving averages are in play for both the S&P and the Nasdaq indices

2025-03-05

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For the S&P index, the price is above its 200 day moving average. For the NASDAQ index the prices below its 200 day moving average.

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Dollar Slumps while European Rates Surge

2025-03-05

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2025-03-05

Overview:  Talk emerged yesterday that the dramatic losses US equities amid recession fears in light of the rash of tariff announcements and threats would draw the new administration's attention. Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested yesterday that President Trump may consider a compromise on Mexico and Canadian tariffs announced yesterday. There was no sign of that in the president's address to the joint session of Congress yesterday. US index...

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Dollar Mostly Softer as Tariffs Implemented

2025-03-04

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2025-03-04

Overview:  The postponed US tariffs on Canada and Mexico have gone forward and China faces its second 10% tariff increase in two months. The dollar is mixed. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the strongest of the G10 currencies, up around 0.45%-0.60% in late European morning turnover, but the Canadian dollar is no slouch and is up about 0.35%. Canada (and China) have announced what are seen as mild initial retaliatory measures, while Mexico is...

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Asia and Europe Seem Less Keen about the Dollar than North America

2025-03-03

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2025-03-03

Overview: The dollar rallied in the second half of last week even as interest rates fell amid a new growth scare. The 25% tariffs on Canada (10% on energy) and Mexico that were postponed a month ago, could be implemented as early as tomorrow.  The only tariffs that have been imposed so far were 10% on Chinese imports, and another 10% threatened tomorrow, and apparently in April, too.  The economic disruption that the tariffs and tariff threats seem...

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March 2025 Monthly

2025-03-01

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2025-03-01

In recent weeks, while Russia's war on Ukraine continues and Beijing continues to harass its neighbors, the U.S. tariff threats and doubts that its defense commitments will be sustained, have emerged as the most significant challenge for businesses, investors, and policymakers. These tariffs are aimed at protecting domestic industries, forcing a re-shoring of production, and raising revenue. If, and when implemented, the tariffs can be expected to...

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Now What?

2025-02-28

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2025-02-28

Sorry for the disruption of the regular commentary.  Still, the monthly will be posted tomorrow.  There is a key divide in the market.  One camp sees the US tariff threats as bluster and a negotiating tactic.  The other camp, which I find myself in, thinks something more serious is happening.  The US voted against Europe and with Russian and Iran at the UN for the first time in 45 years on European issues.  Martin Wolf, the erstwhile economic...

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AUDUSD tumbles to midpoint of the February trading range. Key baromete for buyers and sellers.

2025-02-27

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The AUDUSD has moved close to 0.90% lower in trading today and is approaching the 50% of the February trading range.That level comes in at 0.6247.

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EURUSD tumbles lower on tariff fear. What are the technicals in play for the EURUSD now?

2025-02-27

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The 50% of the range since 2022 low and the 38.2% of the February trading range both come in near 1.0406. Key level that may give traders cause for pause

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USDCHF stretches to the topside and tests the 200 hour MA. Get above is a tilt higher.

2025-02-27

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The 100-hour MA stalled the fall at the 100 hour MA today. The 200-hour MA in the USDCHF comes in at 0.8988.

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Kickstart the North Amer. trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

2025-02-27

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Get insights on EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD as NA session begins with technical analysis and market updates

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What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD as the trading day comes to a close

2025-02-26

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The AUDUSD is down 3 of4 days with the price stretching toward retracement and swing area support between 0.6285 and 0.6301

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USDCAD buyers back in control with break back in the “Red Box” Stay above 1.4268 bullish.

2025-02-26

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The Red Box confined the trading range for most of December and parts of January.

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USDCHF bounces off targeted support at lows yesterday/today, but stalls at MA resistance

2025-02-26

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The high price in the USDCHF stalled just ahead of its 100-hour MA at 0.8965. Getting above the 100-hour MA and staying above, is needed to increase the bullish bias.

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GBPUSD has been trading above/below the 100D MA suggestive of market looking for a shove.

2025-02-26

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The price of the GBPUSD has been trading above and below the 100-day MA over the last 5 trading days

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