Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The 200-day moving averages are in play for both the S&P and the Nasdaq indices

2025-03-05

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For the S&P index, the price is above its 200 day moving average. For the NASDAQ index the prices below its 200 day moving average.

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Dollar Slumps while European Rates Surge

2025-03-05

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2025-03-05

Overview:  Talk emerged yesterday that the dramatic losses US equities amid recession fears in light of the rash of tariff announcements and threats would draw the new administration's attention. Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested yesterday that President Trump may consider a compromise on Mexico and Canadian tariffs announced yesterday. There was no sign of that in the president's address to the joint session of Congress yesterday. US index...

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Dollar Mostly Softer as Tariffs Implemented

2025-03-04

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2025-03-04

Overview:  The postponed US tariffs on Canada and Mexico have gone forward and China faces its second 10% tariff increase in two months. The dollar is mixed. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the strongest of the G10 currencies, up around 0.45%-0.60% in late European morning turnover, but the Canadian dollar is no slouch and is up about 0.35%. Canada (and China) have announced what are seen as mild initial retaliatory measures, while Mexico is...

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Asia and Europe Seem Less Keen about the Dollar than North America

2025-03-03

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2025-03-03

Overview: The dollar rallied in the second half of last week even as interest rates fell amid a new growth scare. The 25% tariffs on Canada (10% on energy) and Mexico that were postponed a month ago, could be implemented as early as tomorrow.  The only tariffs that have been imposed so far were 10% on Chinese imports, and another 10% threatened tomorrow, and apparently in April, too.  The economic disruption that the tariffs and tariff threats seem...

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March 2025 Monthly

2025-03-01

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2025-03-01

In recent weeks, while Russia's war on Ukraine continues and Beijing continues to harass its neighbors, the U.S. tariff threats and doubts that its defense commitments will be sustained, have emerged as the most significant challenge for businesses, investors, and policymakers. These tariffs are aimed at protecting domestic industries, forcing a re-shoring of production, and raising revenue. If, and when implemented, the tariffs can be expected to...

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Now What?

2025-02-28

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2025-02-28

Sorry for the disruption of the regular commentary.  Still, the monthly will be posted tomorrow.  There is a key divide in the market.  One camp sees the US tariff threats as bluster and a negotiating tactic.  The other camp, which I find myself in, thinks something more serious is happening.  The US voted against Europe and with Russian and Iran at the UN for the first time in 45 years on European issues.  Martin Wolf, the erstwhile economic...

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AUDUSD tumbles to midpoint of the February trading range. Key baromete for buyers and sellers.

2025-02-27

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The AUDUSD has moved close to 0.90% lower in trading today and is approaching the 50% of the February trading range.That level comes in at 0.6247.

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EURUSD tumbles lower on tariff fear. What are the technicals in play for the EURUSD now?

2025-02-27

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The 50% of the range since 2022 low and the 38.2% of the February trading range both come in near 1.0406. Key level that may give traders cause for pause

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USDCHF stretches to the topside and tests the 200 hour MA. Get above is a tilt higher.

2025-02-27

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The 100-hour MA stalled the fall at the 100 hour MA today. The 200-hour MA in the USDCHF comes in at 0.8988.

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Kickstart the North Amer. trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

2025-02-27

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Get insights on EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD as NA session begins with technical analysis and market updates

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What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD as the trading day comes to a close

2025-02-26

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The AUDUSD is down 3 of4 days with the price stretching toward retracement and swing area support between 0.6285 and 0.6301

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USDCAD buyers back in control with break back in the “Red Box” Stay above 1.4268 bullish.

2025-02-26

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The Red Box confined the trading range for most of December and parts of January.

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USDCHF bounces off targeted support at lows yesterday/today, but stalls at MA resistance

2025-02-26

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The high price in the USDCHF stalled just ahead of its 100-hour MA at 0.8965. Getting above the 100-hour MA and staying above, is needed to increase the bullish bias.

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GBPUSD has been trading above/below the 100D MA suggestive of market looking for a shove.

2025-02-26

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The price of the GBPUSD has been trading above and below the 100-day MA over the last 5 trading days

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USDJPY tries to extend higher but has some resistance.What key levels would shift the bias

2025-02-26

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The USDJPYs 100 hour MA at 149.60 needs to be broken and stay broken to increase the bullish bias

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Fragile Stability Today after Yesterday’s Growth Scare Saw US Rates, Equities, and the Dollar Tumble

2025-02-26

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2025-02-26

(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days.  New monthly drops March 1.)  Overview: A growth scare, perhaps spurred by the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity survey and the sharp drop in Conference Board's consumer confidence measure, sparked a sharp drop in US yields, a sell-off in US equities and a weaker US dollar. There is a fragile stability today. The greenback is firmer but mostly within yesterday's ranges...

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Gold Technical Analysis – The US stock market selloff weighs on gold

2025-02-26

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#gold #xauusd #technicalanalysis In this video you will learn about the latest fundamental developments for Gold. You will also find technical analysis across different timeframes for a better overall outlook on the market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Topics covered in the video: 0:00 Fundamental Outlook. 0:52 Technical Analysis with Optimal Entries. 2:02 Upcoming Catalysts...

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NZDUSD lower in trading with traders leaning against 100 hour MA and then the 200 hour MA

2025-02-25

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The 200-hour MA at 0.5723 is close resistance as the day ends and the new day begins.

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The buyers took more control earlier today, but the stretch higher stalled ahead of target

2025-02-25

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The good and the bad from the technicals in the price action for the EURUSD today.

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USDCAD makes a break higher and moves back above swing area/100 bar MA

2025-02-25

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USDCAD is back within the confines of the Red Box between 1.4268 and 1.4466.

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