Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, August 2: End of Tariff Truce Trumps Jobs

2019-08-02

by

2019-08-02

Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell's attempt to give insight into the Fed's thinking. Trump's tweet than signaled an end to the tariff truce with a 10% levy on the $300 bln of imports from China that have not been subject to action previously.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 1: Mid-Course Correction Sends Greenback Higher

2019-08-01

by

2019-08-01

Overview:  The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut since the Great Financial Crisis but couched it in terms of a mid-course correction rather than the start of a larger easing cycle.  By doing so, Fed chief Powell cast the cut in less dovish terms than the market expected and the reaction function of the market has been clear. 

Read More »

FX Daily, July 31: Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC

2019-07-31

by

2019-07-31

Overview: After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back declines, Asia Pacific equities struggled. Hong Kong shares led the regional decline.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 30: Sterling Pounded

2019-07-30

by

2019-07-30

Overview:  The prospect of a no-deal Brexit continues to pound sterling lower.  A little more than two months ago, it was testing $1.32.  Two weeks ago it was around $1.25.  Today it traded near $1.2120 before stabilizing.  On the other hand, the 10-year Gilt yield is below 65 bp, a new multiyear low, while the international-laden FTSE 100 is holding its own in the face of heavier equity prices in Europe.

Read More »

Uptick in site deposits puts the spotlight on SNB intervention in the franc

2019-07-29

by

2019-07-29

SNB Sight Deposits Increased, 2016-2019
Has the SNB started to intervene. The weekly site deposit data from the Swiss National Bank showed a small uptick but with some perspective, it's a notable turn. Bloomberg highlights the bump and what looks like a bid to keep EUR/CHF above 1.10.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 29: Prospects of a No-Deal Brexit Weigh on Sterling

2019-07-29

by

2019-07-29

Unrest in Hong Kong and disappointing earnings reports from South Korea weighed on local equity markets, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third consecutive session. European equities are edging higher in tentative trading. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firmer for the sixth session of the past seven. US shares are little changed after record-high closes before the weekend.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The FOMC and US Jobs Headline the Week Ahead

2019-07-29

by

2019-07-29

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance.

Read More »

Seven Points on the ECB and the Price Action

2019-07-27

by

2019-07-27

Confusion
As soon as it was clear that the ECB was not easing today, the euro began to recover, after making a marginal new low for the year (just above $1.11). Draghi made it clear that easing was going to be delivered in September and on several fronts including rates (with mitigating measures like tiering) and new asset purchases (not decided on instruments, which plays into speculation of equity purchases—though I strongly doubt this will materialize).

Read More »

FX Daily, July 26: Markets Consolidate as the Dollar Index Extends its Advance for the Sixth Consecutive Session

2019-07-26

by

2019-07-26

Investors are happy for the weekend. Between the ECB, Brexit, and next week's FOMC, BOJ, and BOE meetings, the markets are mostly in a consolidative mode ahead of the weekend. The first look at Q2 US GDP is the last important data point of the week, though it is unlikely to impact next week's Fed decision.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 25: ECB Takes Center Stage

2019-07-25

by

2019-07-25

The euro remains stuck in its trough below $1.1150 ahead of the ECB meeting. The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. The yen continues to resist the draw of the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are lower. The Turkish lira is weaker ahead of its central bank meeting, which is expected to deliver a large cut (~250 bp).

Read More »

FX Daily, July 24: Poor PMI Weighs on Euro Ahead of ECB

2019-07-24

by

2019-07-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 24
Overview:  Disappointing flash PMI pushed an already offered euro lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. European bonds rallied and equities, amid a rash of earnings, is trying to extend the advance for a fourth consecutive session.  Italian and Spanish 10-year benchmark yields are off four-six basis points, while core bond yields are off two-three basis points.

Read More »

Non trend transitions to trend. Has the EURUSD non-trended long enough?

2019-07-23

by

There is a market truism that plays out eventually. That is non-trends transition to trends. The EURUSD is currently in a 463 pips tradig range for 2019. How does that compare to history? Not too favorably. The lowest trading range for a year is 1147 pips back in 2013. The recent average is around 1450 pips. There is room to roam. Be prepared.

Read More »

Non trend transitions to trend. Has the EURUSD non-trended long enough?

2019-07-23

by

There is a market truism that plays out eventually. That is non-trends transition to trends. The EURUSD is currently in a 463 pips tradig range for 2019. How does that compare to history? Not too favorably. The lowest trading range for a year is 1147 pips back in 2013. The recent average is around 1450 …

Read More »

FX Daily, July 23: Debt Deal Help Lifts the Dollar

2019-07-23

by

2019-07-23

The gains in US equities and the apparent US budget agreement has underpinned equities today and the US dollar. Asia Pacific equities recouped yesterday's losses, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is posting gains for the third consecutive session, helped by some earning beats, to probe two-week highs. US shares are firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed with the Asia Pacific softer and European firmer.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 22: Greenback is Mostly Firmer to Start New Week, while the Euro is Pinned near $1.12

2019-07-22

by

2019-07-22

What promises to be an eventful two weeks has begun quietly. The ECB, Fed, BOJ, and BOE will meet over the next fortnight. The central banks of Turkey and Russia meet this week and are expected to cut rates. The UK will have a new Prime Minister.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-07-22

by

2019-07-22

Three events that will capture the market's attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa.

Read More »

What will happen with Brexit and Adam’s top trade idea

2019-07-20

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the outlook for the Canadian dollar, why there is far too much worry about a hard Brexit and his favourite trade right now. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

What will happen with Brexit and Adam’s top trade idea

2019-07-20

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the outlook for the Canadian dollar, why there is far too much worry about a hard Brexit and his favourite trade right now. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Pares Losses as Market Partly Corrects Confusion of Magntiude and Timing of Fed

2019-07-19

by

2019-07-19

Overview: Comments underscoring the importance of acting preemptively by two Fed officials sent the dollar reeling and helped lift equities after the S&P fell to a two and a half week low. The decline in rates and the US shooting down of an Iranian drone in the Gulf helped spur gold to new six-year highs. There was some attempt to clarify the (NY Fed's) comments and the dollar has pared yesterday's losses.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 18: Dollar on Back Foot as Equities Slide

2019-07-18

by

2019-07-18

Overview:  Profit-taking continues to weigh on global equities earnings concerns saw the biggest drop in the S&P 500 in three weeks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session.  The Nikkei gapped lower for the second straight session and has now retraced half of the gains scored since early June.  The Shanghai Composite is at its lowest level in a month.

Read More »