Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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CHF is ‘not strong in real terms’ – no need for SNB intervention

2019-09-12

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2019-09-12

EUR/CHF chart, September 2019
A note from Standard Chartered on the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss franc. The SNB monetary policy meeting is next week, September 19.In brief, Stan Chart argue the franc is not strong in real termsadjusting EUR/CHF for inflation leaves CHF around 10% weaker than (non-adjusted) current spotno need for SNB to intervene to try to weaken ittherefore the SNB is not likely to cut rates at their meeting, nor intervene in forex markets in the near...

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FX Daily, September 11: Dollar is Firm as ECB is Awaited

2019-09-11

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2019-09-11

Overview: Global equities are extending their recent gains while bonds remain on the defensive.  The dollar is firm.  There is a degree of optimism that is prevailing. There are some more overtures in terms of US-Chinese trade. In Hong Kong, developers and banks led an equity rally on ideas that the political tensions may ease. South Korea reported better trade data for the first ten days of September.

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EUR/CHF technical analysis: Break out or fake out?

2019-09-11

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2019-09-11

Daily EUR/CHF, September 11
The cross needs to hold above the 1.0970s and beyond the 25th July swing lows. To the downside, a break back below the prior descending resistance will spell bad news for the bulls. EUR/CHF has been running higher of late, despite the onset of the European Central Bank - a possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario as the less committed euro shorts are squeezed.

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FX Daily, September 10: Turn Around Tuesday

2019-09-10

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2019-09-10

Overview: The momentum from the end of last week carried into yesterday's activity, but the momentum began fading.  Today, equities were mixed in Asia Pacific and weaker in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed lower yesterday and is slipped further today.  The S&P 500 may gap lower at the open.

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FX Daily, September 9: Market Sentiment Still Constructive

2019-09-09

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2019-09-09

Overview: The improvement of investor sentiment seen last week is carrying over into the start of the new weeks. Global equities are firm as are benchmark yields. Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Hong Kong, where Chief Executive Lam's promise to formally withdraw the controversial extradition bill failed to deter protests.

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FX Weekly Preview: Gaming the ECB and Putting the Cart Before Horse in the Brexit Drama

2019-09-09

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2019-09-09

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that.

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FX Daily, September 06: Focus Shifts to North American Jobs Before Turning Back to Europe next Week

2019-09-06

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2019-09-06

Investors hope that the world took a step away from the abyss in recent days. Developments in Hong Kong, US-China talking, a political and economic crisis in Italy appears to have been averted, and a risk of a no-deal Brexit has lessened. Asia Pacific equities closed the week on a firm note and extended the rally the third week.

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USD/CHF bounces from trend-line support on trade news

2019-09-06

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2019-09-06

USD/CHF levels
US/Sino trade teams will consult in mid-September with a view for a meeting in Washington in early October. USD/CHF is currently trading 0.26% higher and bouning of trend-line support.

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FX Daily, September 05: Brexit becomes a Dog’s Breakfast as Dollar’s Correction Continues

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

The Dollar Index fell the most in three months yesterday and is experiencing mild follow-through selling today. With hopes that Hong Kong has turned a corner, news that in-person US-China talks will resume next month, and a no-deal Brexit is well on the way to being averted, investor risk appetites are robust today.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: The ongoing corrective slide challenges 200-hour SMA support, around mid-0.9800s

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
Extends overnight retracement slide from an ascending trend-channel resistance. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair towards channel support. The USD/CHF pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Wednesday and retreated farther from over one-month tops set in the previous session.

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FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

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FX Daily, September 03: Pound Punished in High Drama

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but the Asia Pacific and European stocks have been sold.

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What Happened Monday

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Markets in the US and Canada were closed on Monday for national Labor Day holidays. Here is a succinct summary of key developments that will set the backdrop for Tuesday. On September 1, the new round of tariffs in the US-China fight took effect. The US placed a 15% tariff on around 3000 Chinese goods that thus far had escaped action.

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What level is key for GBPUSD through latest Brexit votes

2019-09-02

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The UK lawmakers will vote on whether to extend Brexit into 2020. What level is key technically for the GBPUSD through that vote?

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What level is key for GBPUSD through latest Brexit votes

2019-09-02

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The UK lawmakers will vote on whether to extend Brexit into 2020. What level is key technically for the GBPUSD through that vote?

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EURUSD sits on the edge of a cliff

2019-09-02

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As the week starts for the EURUSD, it is sitting on the edge of a cliff at the 1.0941 level. A move below would have the pair looking to fill a gap from 2017.

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EURUSD sits on the edge of a cliff

2019-09-02

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As the week starts for the EURUSD, it is sitting on the edge of a cliff at the 1.0941 level. A move below would have the pair looking to fill a gap from 2017.

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September Monthly

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

Three forces are shaping the investment climate. The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other's goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1).

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FX Weekly Preview: Talking and Fighting in the Week Ahead

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note. Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar. While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull.

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FX Daily, August 30: US Dollar Finishing August on Firm Note as Euro nears Two-Year Lows

2019-08-30

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2019-08-30

Global equities are advancing at least in part on ideas that trade tensions are easing. China announced it would not take immediate action on the five percentage point increase in levies that the US announced strictly in response to China's retaliatory tariffs. A lull between blows is not the same thing as de-escalation or truce.

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