Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

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FX Daily, December 10: Capital Markets: Still Seems to be the Calm before the Storm

2019-12-10

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2019-12-10

Overview: Equities are trading lower, and bonds are mixed as the FOMC, UK election, and the US decision on the December 15 tariffs draw near. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index three-day rally ended today as only China and South Korea's markets rose. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped slightly lower at the open.

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FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

2019-12-09

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2019-12-09

The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for the last three sessions.

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FX Weekly Preview: An Eventful Week Ahead

2019-12-09

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2019-12-09

The US employment report on the first Friday of December usually marks the unofficial end of the year. The desks are often lighter and dealers are loath to jeopardize the year’s bonuses in thin and often erratic markets.  This year is an exception.  Next week features the first ECB meeting with Lagarde at the helm and the final FOMC meeting of the year. 

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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

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The key trade deal detail everyone is missing

2019-12-06

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It’s impossible to separate fact from fiction with all the noise in the China-US trade talks but a report this week was notable for an intriguing detail. It said that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had gotten involved in talks. Adam Button speaks about why that might be telling. He also talks about the state of global growth and why the optimists are early. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ►...

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The key trade deal detail everyone is missing

2019-12-05

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It’s impossible to separate fact from fiction with all the noise in the China-US trade talks but a report this week was notable for an intriguing detail. It said that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had gotten involved in talks. Adam Button speaks about why that might be telling. He also talks about the state of … Continue...

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FX Daily, December 5: Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Overview: Global equity markets have resumed their climb after a wobble at the end of last week and earlier this week. A strong recovery in the S&P 500 on Tuesday signaled yesterday's strong advance that left a bullish one-day island low in its wake. MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline today with nearly all the market with the notable exception of South Korea advanced.

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FX Daily, December 4: Hope Springs Eternal

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Overview: The prospect of not just the failure of the US and China to resolve its trade dispute but a new escalation has sapped the confidence that had lifted equity benchmarks and the greenback. Led by more than a 1% decline in Tokyo (Nikkei), Hong Kong, and Australia, all the major markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. European shares, perhaps encouraged by an upward revision to the flash composite PMI, are snapping a four-day 2.75% slide.

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FX Daily, December 3: US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Asia Pacific equities mostly declined in sympathy with yesterday's large sell-off in the US and Europe. China and Taiwan were the notable exceptions, while Australia's 2.2% decline, following the central bank meeting that resulted in what many are seeing as a hawkish hold, led the move lower. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% yesterday, the largest loss in two months, and is extending the losses for a third session today.

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FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss before the weekend. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also shrugging off the pre-weekend loss and to challenge the multiyear high recorded last week.

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FX Daily, November 29: Equities Slip While Investors Mark Time

2019-11-29

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2019-11-29

Overview: Global equities are trading heavily. Both the MSCI Asia Pacific and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped four-day advancing streaks yesterday and have seen some follow-through selling today. In the Asia Pacific region, all the markets fell but Jakarta. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped a little more than 0.2% yesterday but dropped 2% earlier today to record its biggest decline in three weeks.

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FX Daily, November 27: In Search of New Incentives

2019-11-27

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2019-11-27

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued. There have been few developments to induce activity. Even President Trump's claims that the talks with China are in the "final throes" failed to excite. Equities are extending their advance. Bonds are little changed, and the dollar is mostly firmer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 advanced for the fourth consecutive session.

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FX Daily, November 26: Some Are More Equal Than Others

2019-11-26

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2019-11-26

Overview: Neither optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman, that the economic glass is more than half full, nor a seemingly positive spin on the weekend fall calendar between Chinese and US officials have succeeded in deterring some profit-taking today.

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FX Daily, November 25: Hong Kong, China, and UK Election Hopes Fan Modest Risk-Taking

2019-11-25

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2019-11-25

Overview: The combination of the victory of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and an apparent concession by China on intellectual property rights is helping bolster risk appetites to start the week. Equities are higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng led Asia Pacific equities with a 1.5% gain, the second biggest this month. Korea and India's bourses also gained more than 1%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic?

2019-11-25

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2019-11-25

There have been three general issues that the macro-fundamental picture has revolved around this year: trade, growth, and Brexit. On all three counts, conventional wisdom seems unduly optimistic, and this may have helped dampen volatility. A series of signals suggest that the US and China remain far apart in trade negotiations.

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FX Daily, November 22: Europe’s Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday’s Election

2019-11-22

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2019-11-22

Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific managed to mostly shrug off the drag of the losses in US equities yesterday. China and India could not escape the pull, but most other bourses were higher, led by Singapore and Hong Kong. It was the second consecutive week that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell. The US and European benchmarks are paring this week's small losses.

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FX Daily, November 21: Markets Hear What it Wants from China’s Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Overview: The strongest signs to date that even phase one of a US-China trade deal is proving elusive helped spur the risk-off mood that had already been emerging. The S&P 500 fell by the most in a month (~-0.40%) yesterday, closing the gap from last week we had noted was the risk, and follow-through selling was seen in Asia Pacific and Europe.

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FX Daily, November 20: Dollar Snaps Back

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Overview: The idea that a US-China trade deal is proving more elusive than the agreement in principle on October 11 implied is being seized upon to spur what we suspect is an overdue round of profit-taking in global equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-advance, with over 1% declines in South Korea and Australia.

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