Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally

2021-07-15

by

2021-07-15

Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 14: RBNZ Moves Ahead of the Queue, Will the Bank of Canada Maintain its Place?

2021-07-14

by

2021-07-14

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand jumped to the front of the queue of central banks adjusting monetary policy by announcing the end of its long-term asset purchases. New Zealand's s 10-year benchmark yield jumped seven basis points, and the Kiwi is up almost 1%, to lead the move against the greenback today.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 13: Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year

2021-07-13

by

2021-07-13

New record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ coupled with China allowing Tencent to acquire a search engine helped lift Asia Pacific equities. It is the first back-to-back by MSCI's regional index for more than two weeks. Australia's market was a notable exception.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 12: Markets Adrift ahead of Key Events

2021-07-12

by

2021-07-12

The new week has begun quietly. The dollar is drifting a little higher against most major currencies, with the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies the heaviest. The yen and Swiss franc's resilience seen last week is carrying over.

Read More »

Measuring Inflation and the Week Ahead

2021-07-12

by

2021-07-12

There is quite an unusual price context for new week's economic events, which include June US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with China's Q2 GDP, and the meetings for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 09: PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements after Inflation Measures Ease

2021-07-09

by

2021-07-09

The capital markets are winding down what has been a challenging week that has seen equity markets slide and the dollar and bonds rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific fell for the fourth consecutive session, but the more interesting story may be the intrasession recovery that could set the stage for a better performance next week.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 08: Capital Markets Remain Unhinged

2021-07-08

by

2021-07-08

The dramatic move in the capital markets continues. The US dollar is soaring as yields and equities slide. The US 10-year yield has fallen below 1.30 to 1.26%  European benchmark yields are 1-4 bp lower, while Australia and New Zealand have seen a 7-9 bp drop today.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 07: Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday

2021-07-07

by

2021-07-07

The dollar has steadied after surging yesterday and has so far retained the lion's share of its gains, though it remains lower against most major currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone are the best performers while the yen is underperforming.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 06: Greenback Shows Some Resilency after Follow-Through Selling Dried up

2021-07-06

by

2021-07-06

Follow-through dollar selling stalled as key levels were approached, including $1.19 in the euro, $1.3900 in sterling, $0.7600 in the Australian dollar, and CAD1.2300. Sentiment is mixed after the greenback sold-off before last weekend despite the fastest jobs growth in 10-months.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 02: US Jobs and OPEC+ Day

2021-07-02

by

2021-07-02

The US jobs report and OPEC+ decision are awaited. The dollar remains bid.  Only the yen and Canadian dollar are showing a hint of resilience, though, on the week, the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies are off between around 1-2%. The greenback is also firmer against the emerging market currency complex, and the JP Morgan index is off for the sixth consecutive session.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 01: The Greenback is Bid to Start the Second Half

2021-07-01

by

2021-07-01

Soft Asian manufacturing PMIs weighed on local shares after the S&P 500 set new record highs yesterday. European shares are recouping yesterday's month-end losses, while US futures indices are bid. The US 10-year yield is around 1.47%, and European yields are 1-2 bp higher. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 30: The Greenback is Firm into Quarter-End

2021-06-30

by

2021-06-30

The dollar is finishing the quarter on firm footing, gaining against most of the major currencies today. The euro is straddling the $1.1900 area, having begun the month above $1.22. Sterling has tested the $1.38 area. It had traded at a three-year high near $1.4250 at the start of the month.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 29: Fear that the Mutating Virus Could Slow Recoveries Takes a Toll on Risk Appetites Ahead of Quarter-End

2021-06-29

by

2021-06-29

Fear that the new mutation of the covid virus will slow the global recovery has sent ripples across the global capital markets. The foreign exchange market has the clearest reaction, and the dollar is bid.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 28: European Political Drama Kicks off Big Economic Week

2021-06-28

by

2021-06-28

The global capital markets are off to a quiet start of what promises to be a busy week. Quarter and month-end adjustments, Japan's Tankan survey, the eurozone's preliminary June CPI, the US employment report, and an OPEC+ meeting are featured.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 25: Tokyo Escapes Deflation, Leaving the Greenback Trapped between Two Expiring Options against the Yen

2021-06-25

by

2021-06-25

New record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today. China and Hong Kong led the regional gains and were sufficient to lift the MSCI regional benchmark to halt a two-week drop.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 24: Did the PBOC Signal it is Content with the Yuan’s Pullback?

2021-06-24

by

2021-06-24

The US dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Scandis are leading the major currencies, while the Russian ruble leads the central and eastern European currencies higher. Emerging market currencies mostly firmer, though the Turkish lira and South African rand are notable exceptions.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 23: Japan Retains Distinction of being the only G7 Country with Sub-50 PMI Composite

2021-06-23

by

2021-06-23

Federal Reserve officials, lead by Chair Powell, pushed gently against the more hawkish interpretations of last week's FOMC meeting. Tapering not a rate hike was the focus of discussions. Powell reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and would ease after the re-opening disruptions settled down.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 22: Turn Around Tuesday or Dollar Rally Resumes?

2021-06-22

by

2021-06-22

Firming long-term US yields have lent the dollar support after trading heavily yesterday. The greenback is around 0.15%-0.50% higher against the major currencies. The Japanese yen and Canadian dollar are among the more resilient, and the Australian dollar and sterling among the heaviest.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 21: Dollar Surge Stalls

2021-06-21

by

2021-06-21

Pressure on equities seen last week carried over into Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session, led by more than a 3% decline in the Nikkei. Australia, Taiwan, and Hong Kong bourses fell by more than 1%. European equities opened lower, but have turned higher.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 18: Markets Quiet Ahead of Triple Witching

2021-06-18

by

2021-06-18

After some dramatic moves over in the immediate post-Fed period, the markets have quieted. The kind of volatility that is sometimes associated with triple witching expirations in the US may have already taken place. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, but the MSCI benchmark finished with its second consecutive weekly decline. 

Read More »