Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Forex Quick: The USDCAD sellers are making a play. What next?

2022-09-28

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In this Forex Quick video, I discuss the sellers making a play in the USDCAD after a trend like move in the pair.  What do the sellers have to do to keep control. I look at it in this short video technical view.

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When the markets are volatile, technical levels are key barometers for risk/bias

2022-09-28

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When markets are volatile - and they are volatile - you need technical levels to give you bias and risk defining clues.  Absent that and you are driving with your eyes closed. The Bank of England is trying to come to the rescue as investors staged a mass exodus and of UK debt and equity's and the pound in general. Their actions sent the GBPUSD higher but only to the high from yesterday before rotating back to the downside. In this video I outlined...

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The USD is seeing some selling today tarnishing thebullish crown but with more work needed

2022-09-27

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The USD is seeing some selling today tarnishing the bullish crown. HOwever there is more work needed for the bias to shift further in favor of the short term USD sellers.  In the morning video, I look at the: GBPUSD 0.45 EURUSD 4:10 USDJPY 6:24 USDCAD 8:28

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DAX technical analysis & trade idea (contrarian long!)

2022-09-27

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DAX analyses the performance of Germany's 40 largest blue chip companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Some traders use the DAX as a "tell" and indication for US stocks. In the following DAX technical analysis video, and trade suggestion, I present a low probability but high return vs risk possible trade, wherein a support that many people (primarily trading algos) are monitoring. When a support breaks, fresh bears start...

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Semblance of Calm Returns

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts.

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SNB’s Maechler: Rising rates was intended to send a clear signal on inflation

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

Rising rates was intended to send a clear signal on inflation

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Nasdaq technical analysis: Trading this swing Long potential

2022-09-27

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Trading this Nasdaq rebound potential with a stop below the 11k round number and scaling out in 3 'take profit' parts. See the video for details and follow possible updates within the post or comment of this page on ForexLive.com https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-trading-this-swing-long-potential/ Trade the Nasdaq at your risk only.

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Sterling Continues to be Pounded

2022-09-26

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2022-09-26

Overview: Sterling’s pounding continued in Asia where it was driven to $1.0350, a new record low before stabilizing. UK rates also continued to rise sharply after the new government promised more tax cuts next year. The right-wing victory in Italy was not surprising but it kept pressure on Italian bonds.

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The Precipitous Moves in the Roller Coaster Known as the Foreign Exchange Market

2022-09-25

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2022-09-25

The dollar surged last week. Sure, the push of the Fed was notable, but the larger move from Sweden's Riksbank failed to impress. In fact, the Swedish krona was the poorest performer among the G10 currencies, tumbling 5% last week.

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The Dollar is King. What will keep it king this week?

2022-09-25

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The dollar is king with the EURUSD trading to the lowest level since 2002. The GBPUSD traded to the lowet level since 1985. The AUDUSD, NZDUSD and the NZDUSD traded to the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic plunge. Even the USDCHF rallied despite the 75 basis point hike. The USDJPY rebounded Friday and is back at neutral short term technical levels even after a BOJ intervention this week.   The trend to the upside in the USD is strong but...

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Macro: Tell Us Something We Don’t Already Know

2022-09-24

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2022-09-24

As September winds down, three sets of economic reports will draw the most attention. We will review them and then offer a snapshot of the emerging market central bank meetings.

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The markets are in motion. Stocks are lower. Yields are higher. The USD is higher.

2022-09-23

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The major markets from stocks to bonds to currencies are on the move again today. The UK proposed a sharp tax cut along with energy helped to the consumers, and the markets are not taking it well. UK yields are up sharply, stocks  are down sharply. German yields above 2% for the 1st time since 2011. US yields continued their move to the upside with the 10 year moving above 3.8% earlier today. US stocks are looking to open lower with the...

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The BOJ intervenes sending the USDJPY lower. The SNB raises rates by 50 BPS. CBs go wild

2022-09-22

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Lots of central bank action as they go wild with policy signal. The action sends currency rates around. - The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points yesterday - The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but intervene in the currency markets - The Swiss National Bank raise rates by 75 basis points and the threaten to intervene in the currency market - The Bank of England raise rates by 50 basis points with some dissenters looking for a higher...

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It will be Enough, even if Too Much

2022-09-22

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2022-09-22

Business travel commitments keep me from updating the blog until the weekend, but I wanted to share a few thoughts post-Fed. First, the Fed was more hawkish, and the median dot sees 125 bp increase in the target rate in Q4.  The hawkish thrust was also evident in projecting that the target rate will remain higher for longer.  Even in 2025 sees the target rate above the longer-term (neutral) level.   Second, the market still does not fully accept...

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As the FOMC dust settles, what are the technical driving the currencies vs the USD

2022-09-21

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The FOMC raised rates by 75 basis points and also sent the market a warning that they see even higher rates than the market expects.  The price action saw the dollar move higher initially , but then down as comments in the presser showed less hawkishness from the Fed chair. However, as the dust settled, the more hawkish overtures restarted and the dollar moved higher.   What next? In the vidoe, Greg Michalowski looks at ALL the major...

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Putin and Powell Lift Dollar

2022-09-21

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2022-09-21

Overview: Between Putin’s mobilization of 300k Russian troops and Fed Chair Powell expected to lead the central bank to its third consecutive 75 bp hike later today, the dollar rides high. It has recorded new two-year highs against the dollar bloc and Chinese yuan, while sterling was sent to new lows since 1985. Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of red for the sixth decline in the regional benchmark in the past seven sessions. Surprisingly, Europe’s...

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The Greenback Firms to Start the New Week, Stocks Slide

2022-09-19

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2022-09-19

Overview:  The busy week is off to a slow start as Japan is on holiday and the UK and Canadian markets are closed to honor Queen (Australia will commemorate with a holiday on Thursday). Nevertheless, the sell-off in equities continues and the US dollar is firm. Most of the large markets in Asia fell. India is a notable exception. Its benchmark rose for the first time in four sessions, helped by bank shares and Infosys. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for...

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The Dollar may Stabilize Ahead of the FOMC

2022-09-18

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2022-09-18

Verbal intervention proved sufficient to keep the US dollar below JPY145, but the greenback gained broadly. It rose to new two-year highs against the dollar-bloc and Chinese yuan ahead of the weekend and to levels against sterling not seen since 1985.

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No One Wants a Recession, but Central Banks are willing to Take the Risk to Demonstrate Anti-Inflation Resolve

2022-09-17

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2022-09-17

The week ahead is busy. Three G7 central banks meet, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In addition, Japan and Canada report their latest CPI readings, and the flash September PMI are released.  There are three elements of the Fed's meeting that are worth previewing. First is the interest rate decision itself and the accompanying statement. Ironically, this seems to be the most straightforward. Even before the August...

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