Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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What exactly did Powell say at Jackson Hole?

2022-08-29

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The short but sweet speech by Chair Powell was firm and unambiguous. Here is the review of his comments

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NQ technical analysis update after market opened on 28 Aug

2022-08-29

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See the full analysis at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-a-contrarian-long-on-nasdaq-20220829/

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The USD is seeing some selling in early NY trading.

2022-08-29

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The USD is seeing a move to the downside in early US trading. Recall that the UK is off today in observance of the summer bank holiday so liquidity conditions may be less.  Nevertheless, the EURUSD is squeezing back toward the 200 hour MA at 1.00177.  The USDJPY is still higher on, the day but off its highs. The pair in the short term intraday chart is below the 100 bar MA and testing the 200 bar MA.  The GBPUSD traded to the lowest level...

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Natural gas (NATGAS) technical analysis and trade idea (short)

2022-08-29

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Reward vs risk is quite attractive for a 3 part short trade here on natural gas futures. See the full Natgas futures technical analysis at: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/natural-gas-futures-natgas-technical-analysis-and-trade-idea-short/

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Stocks and Bonds Sell Off, while the Dollar Rallies

2022-08-29

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2022-08-29

Overview: The reverberations from last week continue to roil the capital markets today. Equities and bonds have been sold and the greenback bought. Most of the large markets in Asia Pacific fell by more 2%, including Japan’s Nikkei, Taiwan’s Taiex, and South Korea’s Kospi.

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The Week Ahead: Dollar Bulls Still in Charge

2022-08-27

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2022-08-27

The poor preliminary PMI readings, the ongoing European energy crisis, and the recognized commitment of most major central banks to rein in prices through tighter financial conditions are risking a broad recession. These considerations are weighing on sentiment and shaping the investment climate. Most high-frequency data due in the days ahead will not change this, even if they pose some headline risk.  

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Risk a little to make more than a little

2022-08-26

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Are you one to do trades with $%&*# trade location? If so you need to change your trading mindset and start to focus more on the idea of risking a little to make more than a little. In this video, I will speak to to this topic and get you away from your $%&*# trade location.

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The US morning forex technical report. Fed Powell speech. Better PCE data weakens the USD

2022-08-26

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Fed Powell to speak at 10 AM ET The core PCE data in the US came in better than expectations with helped to lower the dollar on hopes that a terminal rate can be found sooner rather than later. However, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at 10 AM ET and could cause a shifting of the bias if he chooses to talk more above quantitative tightening. However, that would be outside his lane and that of Fed officials. So it is not expected.  The EURUSD,...

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Heads up for ECB, SNB, BoK speakers over the weekend

2022-08-26

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2022-08-26

On Saturday at the Jackson Hole symposium there will be speakers from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Korea.

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Jackson Hole and More

2022-08-26

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2022-08-26

Overview: Ahead of the much-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a 75 bp hike next month.  The US 10-year yield is up nearly five basis points today to 3.07% and the two-year yield is firm at 3.38%.  Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with China the main exception among the large markets, after US equities rallied yesterday.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.3% to...

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It’s ALL about Anticipation….

2022-08-25

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If you can anticipate the nuances of the market, you can become an All Star trader. Athletes and traders have a lot of parellels that make comparisons easy and informative. A medical study on athletes showed that pro athletes don't have reflexes that are faster than the general public. What differentiates the all stars from the rest, is their ability to anticipate the future. Successful traders need to anticipate as well. Traders need to...

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Major US indices higher and trading between 100/200 hour MA and awaits the next shove.

2022-08-25

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The last week, the major US stock indices have seen the price come off the short covering boil and return between the shorter term 100 and 200 hour MA. Today the prices are higher and that took the indices more toward the middle of those MA ranges.  Often ahead of a key event, traders will take the price toward these neutral areas as a way to keep both the bullish and bearish options open.   With Jackson Hole Symposium getting underway, the...

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The morning forex technical report for August 25: Start the Jackson Hole Symposium

2022-08-25

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What levels are in play as the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off The Jackson Hole symposium is kicking off officially today. That means central bankers will be speaking.  The course Fed chair Powell will be the highlight tomorrow when he addresses the attendees at 10 AM ET. So what levels are in play today? - EURUSD trades back below the 100 hour MA after the "try" above failed. That MA is at a0.9977. Stay below is more bearish. -...

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Dollar Longs Pared as Jackson Hole Gathering is set to Start

2022-08-25

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2022-08-25

Overview: It seems that many market participants had the same thing in mind, cut dollar longs before the Jackson Hole gathering. The Antipodeans lead the majors move, encouraged perhaps by China’s new economic measures, with around a 1% gain. The euro and sterling are up about 0.35% and are the laggards. Emerging market currencies are higher as well, with the notable exception of India and Turkey, which are nursing small losses. Equities are having...

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A lesson in trading from a legend…

2022-08-24

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Tiger Management Founder Julian Robertson dies at 90 years old.

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Technical levels in the EURUSD control the price action

2022-08-24

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The EURUSD tested a higher low area of support, then shot through the swing low from July 2022. That led to buyers into the London fixing that pushed the pair to the 100 hour MA and parity level. Sellers leaned. The price came back down. Technical levels are controlling the flows in choppy price action.

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August 24 technical report: The USD moves higher today as Jackson Hole approaches

2022-08-24

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What technical levels are in play for August 24, 2022 In the morning forex report, i outline the levels in play for the major currency pairs as the clock ticks toward the Jackson Hole Symposium and the Chair Powell speech on Friday at 10 AM. The USD is higher on the day with some of the pairs breaking away from MA levels increasing the dollar bullish bias.  The AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY are all making a break. The EURUSD is moving closer to the 20...

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New Recession Worry Stalls Dollar Express but Doesn’t Derail It

2022-08-24

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2022-08-24

A simply dreadful flash US PMI stopped the dollar's four-day rally in its tracks. It followed news that the eurozone, Japan, and Australia's composite PMIs are below the 50 boom/bust level. However, the dollar recovered, even if not fully as the market seemed unconvinced that the data could change Fed Chair Powell's message at Jackson Hole on Friday. A consolidative tone is evident today. Asia Pacific equities were mixed.

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The morning forex technical report for August 23, 2022. What is driving the forex market

2022-08-23

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The EURUSD made another new low going back to December 2002, reaching to 0.9900. The price high stayed below the swing low from July 2022 at 0.99515 keeping the sellers in firm control.  The 14 day RSI is diverging and moving toward oversold, but the price still needs to get and stay above 0.99515 if the pair is going higher.  The USDJPY move  to a new high going back to July, and on the downside stalled just ahead of the June high near 137.00. ...

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Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession

2022-08-23

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2022-08-23

The poor eurozone PMI underscores likely recession and weighs on the single currency, which was sold to a new 20-year low.  Rather than a "Turn Around Tuesday"  a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, while US futures are positive but little changed.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer and the premium offered by Europe's periphery is edging higher.  The US 10-year is little changed near...

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