Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Fitch Puts US on Negative Credit Watch and the Dollar Extends its Gains

2023-05-25

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2023-05-25

Overview: Concerned about the political wrangling over servicing US debt, Fitch put the US on negative credit watch. Besides chin wagging and finger pointing, it has had little perceptible impact. The dollar is mostly higher, reaching new highs for the year against the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and the Antipodean currencies. The euro and sterling met retracement objective we have targeted (~$1.0735 and $1.2435, respectively). The greenback is...

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USDJPY buyers in control. Watch to understand why and what would hurt that bias today

2023-05-24

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The buyers are holding support on the hourly and daily chart with work to do. What would keep that bias in the favor of the USDJPY? What are the targets and why?  Learn about it by watching this video on the USDJPY.

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EURUSD sellers had their shot. Buyers had their shot. Both are bad shots so far.

2023-05-24

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Sellers tried to push the EURUSD to new lows and below a floor and key swing area but failed. The snapback rally the price back to the falling 100-hour moving average. That, along with the 100-day moving average of 1.0813 and the following 200-hour moving average of 1.08274 are tires that would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective in the short term at least.   For now, sellers are in more control, but there is...

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RBNZ Delivers a Dovish Hike and UK Inflation Surprises to the Upside

2023-05-24

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2023-05-24

Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are being led lower by the sell-off in the US yesterday. All the large Asia Pacific markets fell with Hong Kong and mainland shares setting the pace. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off nearly 1.5%, which would be the largest loss in two months. Consumer discretionary, financials and real estate sectors are off nearly 2%. US equity futures have a softer bias. European 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp...

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AUDUSD heads into the new trading day near lows from last week

2023-05-23

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The AUDUSD is looking to end the day near lows.  Stocks moved lower. The USD moved higher.  Risk off flows?  Maybe a little.  In this video, I talk about the technicals that are dominating the price action in the pair. The 100-hour MA has seen price action above and below over the last 3 trading days, but the price is back below and moving away (bearish). The higher 200-hour MA has not been broken to the topside since May 11. It would take a move...

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USDJPY makes new highs for the year, but momentum slowsLive Video

2023-05-23

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The USDJPY moved to a new high going back to November 2022 in trading today, but could not maintain momentum. The price is rotated back to the downside ahead of the US stock market open.  Technically, failure to extend hire is a disappointment, but if the price can remain above 138.139 on the daily chart, that would keep the buyers and control. Watch that level in trading today for short and long term-term clues.

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EURUSD stretches toward the low from last week and away from 100 day MA. What next?

2023-05-23

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Join us as we delve into the EURUSD's current price action and uncover its potential for a downside move. The pair is currently approaching the low from last week, indicating a significant level to watch. A breakthrough below this level, along with the 1.0750 support level from the daily chart, could pave the way for further downside momentum. Traders will closely monitor whether the pair can sustainably stay below its 100-day moving average at...

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Yen Recovers from New 2023 Low, while Sterling Sets a New Low for the Month

2023-05-23

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2023-05-23

Overview:  The dollar is bid. Only the Japanese yen is holding its own against the greenback but only after it fell to new lows for the year. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the heaviest among the G10 currencies, while sterling has fallen to a new low for the month. The prospect of a rate hike tomorrow has not protected the New Zealand dollar much and it is off nearly 0.5%. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. Outside of the Russian rouble,...

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The table is set for the buyers and sellers in the USDCAD. Traders await the next shove.

2023-05-22

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Join us as we analyze the USDCAD's trading session on Victoria Day, a national holiday in Canada. Despite the subdued price action, important resistance and support areas have emerged, setting the stage for potential momentum in the coming days. The resistance area lies between 1.3517 and 1.35266, while the support area is defined by the 50% midpoint and a cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour moving average at 1.3486, the 200-hour...

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USDCHF settle between 100/200 hour MA after sharp up and down trading day

2023-05-22

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Join us as we unravel the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers in the USDCHF pair amidst a volatile trading session. The pair has been navigating through key technical levels, showcasing a fascinating tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. After finding support at the 50% midpoint, the price has witnessed a push higher, challenging resistance levels on the topside. Notably, the pair has tested the 200-hour moving average above, along...

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GBPUSD sellers try to take more control in up and down day

2023-05-22

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Dive into the latest GBPUSD analysis and discover a recurring pattern that spells opportunity for sellers. The failed attempts to surpass the 100-hour moving average (MA) have tilted the balance in favour of sellers, as long as the price remains below this critical MA level. Additionally, the 4-hour chart unveils a significant test of the key 200-bar MA during Friday's upward move, where eager sellers emerged. Keep a close watch on this MA level...

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USDJPY buyers make a play again. Can the buyers keep the control?

2023-05-22

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Witness the USDJPY buyers in action as Fed's Bullard adopts a more hawkish stance, driving the price higher. In this captivating video, explore the swing areas on both the 4-hour and daily charts that indicate buyer strength. Keep an eye on the key resistance level at 138.74, which marks the high from last week. If the buyers manage to stay above the swing area support, their target becomes the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 high to...

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The Dollar Consolidates after Powell Sapped its Mojo

2023-05-22

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2023-05-22

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair Powell's offered a stronger case for a pause in the monetary tightening before the weekend and this sapped the dollar's mojo. The greenback is mostly consolidating through the European morning in quiet turnover. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is trying to snap a four-day decline. The South African rand is recovering from its recent slide and is up nearly 1%. The South Korea won is benefitting from...

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Technical Analysis and Trade Idea for TSLA Bulls (using Fib entry)

2023-05-21

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🔍 Uncover Tesla's stock price forecast for 2023 through a comprehensive technical analysis! 📈 Explore a unique Fibonacci entry method that optimizes trade entry points. 💡 Discover potential accumulation opportunities and effective risk management strategies for traders. For additional perspectives, visit Forex Live! Don't miss out on this insightful analysis and trade idea! #TeslaStockForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciMethod

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Week Ahead: US Debt Ceiling Drama Continues and the Dollar’s Two-Week Rally Stalls

2023-05-20

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2023-05-20

Mostly stronger than expected economic data, hawkish rhetoric by several Fed officials, some signs of progress on the perverse drama over the debt ceiling, and a solid week for bank shares helped the dollar extend its recent recovery. The greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The euro took out April's low (~$1.0790) and sterling traded briefly below $1.24. The US two-year note yield takes a six-session...

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What levels are in play for the GBPUSD and why through the Fed Chair speech

2023-05-19

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In this insightful video, we examine the recent price action of GBPUSD, focusing on its retracement higher and subsequent rejection at the 100-hour moving average. Sellers stepped in at the critical level, driving the price back below a significant swing area. By staying below this level, sellers maintain their dominance in the market. We also discuss the importance of the 100-hour moving average as a conservative stop level for sellers...

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Key Chart Points Hold and the Dollar’s Rally Stalls Ahead of the Weekend

2023-05-19

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2023-05-19

Overview: Hawkish comments from Fed officials and the first decline in continuing unemployment claims below 1.8 mln in two months boosted US rates and the odds of a June rate hike rose to about 37%. This represents a near tripling of the probability in the past week. It has been a trend with the odds rising in 9 of the past 11 sessions. The two-year note yield has risen for the past five sessions coming into today for a cumulative gain of about 35...

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GBPUSD continues move lower. What would ruin the trend move now?

2023-05-18

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Join us in this comprehensive video analysis as we delve into the current trend of GBPUSD, which is exhibiting a downward trajectory. We explore the key factors that could potentially disrupt or invalidate this bearish move. By breaking down the technical aspects driving the market, we provide valuable insights into the bias, risks, and targets for GBPUSD. Stay informed and gain a deeper understanding of the GBPUSD market dynamics by watching this...

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AUDUSD moves to new session low and new low for May 2023

2023-05-18

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The AUDUSD has been stepping lower since peaking last week. The corrective moves higher have been finding willing sellers against the falling 100 hour moving average. That has kept the sellers more in control. In trading yesterday and again today the price moved up toward that moving average and found sellers giving them the go-ahead to take the price lower from a technical perspective. The low price just extended below the early May low but only...

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GBPUSD stayed below a key hourly MA today and that gave sellers the go-ahead to push lower

2023-05-18

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The GBPUSD moved below the 100 hour moving average late in the day yesterday after a break above a failed. In trading today in the Asian session, the high found the sellers against that moving average, and it gave the sellers the go-ahead to push to the downside. That move to the downside has taken the price below the low price from yesterday near 1.2421 and also below an old swing area on the daily chart between 1.24228 and 1.2447. If the sellers...

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