Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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US CPI, Fed, ECB, BOJ and the Week Ahead

2023-06-10

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2023-06-10

Of the three G3 central banks that meet in the days ahead, the market is the most confident of a rate hike by the European Central Bank. The market sees a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve. However, the idea of a skip, a topic which even Fed officials have broached, would seem to pre-commit to another hike, and this is not typically the central bank's modus operandi. Moreover, it may be difficult for the Fed to resume hikes in July if inflation...

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NZDUSD stalls near 38.2% of the May trading range

2023-06-09

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The price rise in the NZDUSD stalls against the 38.2% retracement keeping the sellers in play

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AUDUSD moves from support at the 200 day MA to resistance at the 100 day MA.

2023-06-09

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Will sellers lean against the 100 day MA?

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GBPUSD extends higher in trades at the highest level since May 11

2023-06-09

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GBPUSD finds support buyers near swing area and 61.8% retracement

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USDJPY playing the technical ranges with MAs above/swing area below

2023-06-09

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The 100 and 200 hour moving averages were tested and broken earlier at 139.53, but the break failed.

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EURUSD corrects into support today. Can the bounce lead to a rise toward 1.0810 target?

2023-06-09

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The support/risk comes in at 1.0747 to 1.0759. Get above 1.0786 ceiling and then 1.0810 becomes the target area

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Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of the Weekend

2023-06-09

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2023-06-09

Overview:  Long US dollar positions were pared yesterday as rates unwound the gains scored in the wake of the Bank of Canada's surprise hike on Wednesday. It is consolidating today as the market looks toward next week’s central bank meetings (FOMC, ECB, and BOJ) and a flurry of data. It is also possible that China shaves the benchmark one-year medium-term lending facility rate. Broadly speaking the greenback is still tracking rates, and the more...

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USDCAD bias remains lower, but low today can’t take out yesterday’s low

2023-06-08

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USDCAD consolidates after yesterday's BOC hike yesterday

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USDCAD bias remains lower, but low today can’t take out yesterday’s low

2023-06-08

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USDCAD consolidates after yesterday's BOC hike

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AUDUSD extends above 200 day MA. Buyers in control.

2023-06-08

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High from yesterday eyed. The AUDUSD is up testing the high from yesterday's trading at 0.6717. The high price just reached 0.67149 after breaking back above its 200-day moving average of 0.66907. What next? Moving above the 200-day moving average sets is as a risk-defining level once again. Stay above is more bullish. On the top side, the 100-day moving average at 0.67425 would be the next key target on a break of the high from yesterday at...

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USDJPY rotates lower and back below the 100/200 hour MA. Ups and downs continue.

2023-06-08

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The 100/200 hour MA is now resistance again at 139.70 The USDJPY moved lower after the initial jobless claims moved to new 20-month highs. The data, pushed the USDJPY back below its near converged 100/200 hour moving averages at 139.70. Those moving averages are not risk-defining levels for sellers looking for more downside momentum. The price needs to stay below to keep the sellers more in control in the short term.

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EURUSD runs to swing area after weaker jobs data

2023-06-08

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Initial jobs clients spikes to 20 month highs helping to weaken the USD. The initial jobless claims for the current week rose to the highest level in 20 months and that has weakened the US dollar in the process. Looking at the EURUSD, the price action saw the pair move up to a swing area between 1.0747 and 1.0759, but is finding sellers against that swing area on the first look as risk for sellers can be defined and limited by sellers. A move...

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USDCHF moves lower after SNB comments and US jobs data

2023-06-08

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Initial jobless claims spike higher, and SNBs Jordan speaks about inflation. The USDCHF has moved sharply lower after SMB's Jordan spoke to more persistent than we thought inflation, and the much higher US jobless claims moved US rates lower and the US dollar lower as well.   The USDCHF moved to a swing area between 0.9025 and 0.9035. The 38.2% retracement of the major trading range comes in at 0.90218.  Move below each opens the door for further...

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Japan’ Q1 GDP was Revised Up, While the Eurozone’s was Revised Down

2023-06-08

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2023-06-08

Overview: The back-to-back surprise rate hikes by the Australia and Canada spurred speculation that the Fed could hike next week, and this lifted US rates and helped the dollar recover. The odds of a hike increased, according to the indicative pricing in the Fed funds futures market from about a 20% chance to a little above 35%. now. At yesterday's high, the two-year yield was up a little more than 25 bp since the low before the US employment data...

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USDCHF tests yesterday’s high and 0.9100 level

2023-06-07

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The USDCHF is having another up-and-down trading day today with the price trading above and below its near converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages (near 0. 9070). The early US sessions saw the price moving low but was then boosted after the Bank of Canada rate hike. Momentum took the price back above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages. The last few hours has seen a consolidation near high levels from yesterday at 0.9097 and the natural...

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AUDUSD trades to a new session low. Looks toward 50% midpoint of the May trading range.

2023-06-07

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50% midpoint comes in at 0.66376. The AUDUSD is trading to a new session low at 0.66529. The pair has moved back into the trading range from after the RBA rate hike yesterday. Earlier today the price broke to a new high going back to mid-May. That move higher yesterday took the pair above the 50% midpoint of the May trading range, and also the high prices from both Friday and Monday at 0.66376. The high price yesterday reached 0.66834 before...

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NZDUSD moves lower after earlier move higher runs out steam

2023-06-07

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The NZDUSD is moving lower after an earlier move higher in the early New York session ran out of steam. The high price reached the high of a swing area between 0.60829 and 0.60949. The subsequent fall took the price back below the 100-hour moving average of 0.60703 and the 200-hour moving average of 0.60532. Staying below those moving averages keeps the sellers more in control. The trading range of the last 4 trading days is only about 70 pips if...

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Bank of Canada ahead. Some levels in play.

2023-06-07

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BOC rate decision ahead

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USDJPY tries to extend higher but has trouble

2023-06-07

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USDJPY trades above 100 hour MA, but has 200 hour MA above to conquer

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GBPUSD buyers try to make a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

2023-06-07

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Buyers move above the 100 are moving average 1.24542. The GBPUSD buyers are trying to make a play to the upside. But the question is can they keep the momentum going? The move so far has taken the price above a swing area between 1.2435 and 1.24497 and the 100-hour moving at 1.24542. Staying above those levels would keep the buyers more in control in the short term. The low price today could not extend below the low price from yesterday giving the...

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