Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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USDCHF sellers take firm control. Take pair to lowest level since May 22.

2023-06-14

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The price moves below the fitters the midpoint of the move up from the May low at 0.8983

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NZDUSD trades above the next target and looks toward the key 100-day MA

2023-06-14

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The NZDUSD is one of the biggest movers today with a gain of 1.0%. That has the price moving closer to the key 100-day MA at 0.6223. Support on the downside is at 0.6200 and the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.61838.

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USDJPY falls to the 100/200 hour MAs after lower PPI data

2023-06-14

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The swing area above held resistance between 140.22 and 140.443

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Buyers are making a play in the EURUSD after the better PPI data

2023-06-14

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Can the buyers keep the momentum going through target levels?

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Euro: Thumbnail Sketch Ahead of the ECB Meeting

2023-06-14

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2023-06-14

The euro has traded between roughly $1.0485 and $1.1100 so far this year. The average is about $1.08, where it traded above yesterday for the first time in 2 ½ weeks. Recall that the euro rallied from around $1.05 in mid-March (amid speculation that the banking stress was going to force the Fed to cut) to around $1.1100, where it stalled in late April and early May. We argued that the rate cut expectations had swung too far and that as they...

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Fed Day: Skip = Hawkish Pause, but Market Says Finito

2023-06-14

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2023-06-14

Overview: The year-end effective Fed funds rate implied in the futures market is about 5.11%. The rate has been averaging 5.08% since the Fed hiked rates last month The Fed may go to pains to explain that the steady that to be announced later today is just a pause to get a better read on the economy, the market favors this to be the end of the tightening cycle. The dollar is trading softer against nearly all the G10 currencies. Emerging market...

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

2023-06-14

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This is a technical analysis on the WTI Crude Oil market with some fundamental background. For more visit ForexLive.com

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NZDUSD buyers had their shot above the 200 day MA. The momentum could not be sustained.

2023-06-13

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200 day MA in the NZDUSD was broken at 0.61488

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Buyers and sellers continue to battle in the EURUSD. Buyers still in control.

2023-06-13

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The swing area stalled the fall, but the 100 day MA and 38.2% looms on the topside

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The AUDUSD remains above 100 day MA today. Sniffed the May high and backs off.

2023-06-13

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AUDUSD buyers remain more in control above the 100 day MA at 0.67349

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USDCAD falls below the lows going back to early May, but only just barely…

2023-06-13

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The USDCAD failed on break of resistance at 100 hour moving average as well

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EURUSD rises above key target resistance after CPI, but failing.

2023-06-13

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The move above the 100 day MA and the 38.2% is failing after CPI data

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PBOC Surprise Rate Cut and a Strong UK Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

2023-06-13

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2023-06-13

Overview: A surprise cut in China's seven-day repo and a stronger than expected UK employment report are session's highlights ahead of the US CPI. The base effect alone suggests a sharp fall in the year-over-year rate, while the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has been shaved to a 0.1% month-over-month gain. The dollar is under pressure and is weaker against nearly all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the emerging market currencies....

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

2023-06-13

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This a technical analysis video on the AUDUSD pair with some fundamental background as we head into the US CPI report today. For more visit ForexLive.com

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GBPUSD lower on the day and being influenced by the EURGBP

2023-06-12

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The EURGBP is reversing higher and helping to push the GBPUSD lower

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USDJPY trades a little up in a little down so far today. Waiting for the next shove.

2023-06-12

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The range of 58 pips is around half of the 117 PIP average over the last 22 trading days

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EURUSD higher but work to do for the buyers to increase the bullish bias

2023-06-12

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The 1.0810 area remains a key target on the topside if swing area support can hold today

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Ahead of the Week’s Central Bank Meetings, Risk Appetites Stoked

2023-06-12

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2023-06-12

Overview: Today may be the calm ahead of a tomorrow's US CPI and rate decisions by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC over the next few days. Most large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose and Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline. US index futures are trading higher. US 10-year yield is slightly firmer as are core European benchmark yields. The dollar is under broad pressure and is weaker against the G10 currencies. Against emerging...

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This week’s Fed rate hike decision. Complacency Could Spell Danger. But Also OPPORTUNITY.

2023-06-12

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The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates 10 times since March 2022. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently 5.00% to 5.25%. The probability of a rate hike in the next meeting is low, at 18.6%. However, there have been instances in the past where the Fed has surprised markets by raising rates even when the probability of a rate hike was low. If the Fed does surprise markets by raising rates, it could lead to a sell-off in...

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ES Futures technical analysis, forecasted price of the beginning of the year reached. Where next?

2023-06-11

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ES Technical Analysis: Revisiting the January Forecast https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/e-mini-sp-500-futures-unraveling-the-4400-forecast-and-whats-next/ In this video, I revisit my January forecast for the S&P 500 E-mini futures contract (ES). At the time, I called for a move to the 4400 level, and we are now very close to that level. In this video, I will discuss the factors that have led to this move, and I will also provide...

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