Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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USDCAD backs off from topside resistance but the 100 hour MA stalls the fall

2023-04-27

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The USDCAD moved to a swing area target and 61.8 Retracement level this week and that area stalled the rise. In trading today, sellers have pushed lower but has run into support at the 100 hour MA.  So buyer and sellers have defined the close support and resistance. Traders are waiting for the next shove outside one of those technical levels.

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US GDP lower but core PCE higher. That sends yields and the USD higher in early US trading

2023-04-27

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The US GDP came in lower-than-expected but core PCE was higher. That has sent the US yields to the upside and the US dollar higher in early US trading.  However, the moves post the data, has the pair trading back to 100/200 are moving average levels in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and stalled. Those moving averages will be barometers in the new trading day. What is clear is the ups and downs have continued in those major currency pairs.

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Markets Becalmed Ahead of Key Data and BOJ Meeting Outcome

2023-04-27

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2023-04-27

Overview: Some regional bank earnings were weighing on investor sentiment but reports that the FDIC is running out of patience with First Republic Bank to strike a private deal and could decide to downgrade its assessment. This could lead to limits on its ability to use the Fed's emergency facilities. Other reports said that the bank's advisers are securing commitments to buy a new stock as part of a broader restructuring. Still, while the KBW bank...

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The EURUSD and GBPUSD rebound today. The AUDSD moves to a new year low

2023-04-26

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The EURUSD and the GBPUSD fell sharply yesterday on flight to safety flows, but in trading today, those declines are being erased.  The USDJPY chops around after yesterday saw a decline on flight to more safety into the JPY on banking concerns.  The AUDUSD is lower after YoY inflation fell more than expected in Australia today despite the slightly higher QoQ data.

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Bank Stress Hobbles the Dollar, while Dissents Make the 50 bp Hike by Sweden less than Hawkish

2023-04-26

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2023-04-26

Overview: The re-emergence of bank stress reverberated through the US markets yesterday, downgrading the perceived chances of a Fed hike next week and sending the US 2-year yield sharply lower. The yield settled 13 bp lower, the largest drop in three weeks. The risk-off sent the US dollar higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Follow-through US dollar gains today has been mostly limited to the Australian dollar, where...

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AUDUSD transit to the downside and approaches a floor area. What next?

2023-04-25

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The AUDUSD corrected higher into the Asian session today, and in the process tested the 100 hour MA. Sellers leaned against the level, and has been trending the pair lower since then. In the NY session the pair has moved below a swing area between 0.6649 and 0.66526. Stay below is more bearish going forward. The move lower has looked to approach the March 24 low at 0.6625 in the April 10 low at 0.66186. Move below that area opens the door for...

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The USD is stronger and retraces the declines from yesterday. What are the chart saying?

2023-04-25

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The USD is stronger today retracing some of the declines from yesterday's trading.  What are the charts saying?  In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep dive into the technicals supporting the price action for the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD major currency pairs.

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Risk-Off Mood Dominates

2023-04-25

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2023-04-25

Overview:  Perhaps it was the extent of First Republic Bank's loss of deposits that were reported with earnings yesterday, but risk appetites dried up today. Asia Pacific equities were trounced outside Japan today. Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there set the tone today falling 1.7%-1.9%. China's CSI 300 fell for the fifth consecutive session. Taiwan and South Korean markets fell more 1.4%-1.6%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off almost 0.5%,...

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Yen: Short Overview

2023-04-24

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2023-04-24

The yen is off about 1% this month to bring the year-to-date decline to about 2.4%. It fell by 12.2% in 2022 and 10.3% in 2021. The yen rallied against the dollar for the five preceding years. Over that five-year period the dollar fell from around JPY124 to JPY99, but it was all done in H1 16, and after a rally at the end of 2016 and very early 2017 (to about JPY118.65), the dollar ground down around JPY101. This year’s dollar low was set in...

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The Dollar Begins New Week mostly Softer

2023-04-24

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2023-04-24

Overview:  The dollar is mostly lower, led by the Swiss franc and euro. However, despite softer US rates and a victory for the LDP in local Japanese elections, the yen is trading with a softer bias. Japanese stocks recovered from the pre-weekend profit-taking seen after the Nikkei make new highs for the year. Most other large bourses in the region except Taiwan and India also moved lower. Note that China's CSI 300 fell for the fourth consecutive...

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Set yourself up for the new trading week by understanding the key levels in play

2023-04-23

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A non trending week last week, will have traders looking for more action this week. A number of major currency pairs vs the USD had very low ranges in trading last week. The non-trending nature of the price action will have traders anticipating something more in trading this week. That would involve breaks of key technical levels.  In this weekend technical report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com discusses this dynamic and outlines the levels...

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Ueda Chairs First BOJ Meeting, and US and EMU Provide First Estimate of Q1 GDP: The Week Ahead

2023-04-22

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2023-04-22

As April draws to a close, the systemic stress in the banking sector continues to subside, and the market is turning its attention to likely rate hikes by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in early May. Although, as in March, the market sees the May hike to 5.25% to be the last Fed hike. Before the bank stress, the swap market had been leaning to a 5.75% terminal rate. It is still early to fully appreciate the magnitude and duration of the...

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Making some sense technically from the up & down chop in some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-21

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The up and down chop this week in the some of the major currency pairs, has some traders frustrated (when you think it is going down it goes up and visa versa), and some traders happy (the up and down range traders).  The EURUSD and GBPUSD is non trending. The USDJPY is trying to reverse lower after reaching a key topside target on Wednesday.  To get up to speed, watch the morning technical video. Although there is some up and down volatility,...

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The USD continues to chop as the market gets pushed and pulled

2023-04-20

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The USD continues to chop as the market gets pushed and pulled from higher inflation and lower growth, lower inflation and higher growth, good data, bad data, hawkish Fed members, less hawkish Fed members.  Good earnings but lower earnings YoY. Lower margins, etc., etc. etc.  The USD has moved lower after the Philly Fed index was the lowest in 3 years (the Empire manufacturing surprised the upside on Tuesday so go figure).  Yields are lower with...

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Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges

2023-04-20

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2023-04-20

Overview: Equities are mostly lower, while bonds have risen. The dollar is trading in narrow ranges and mixed against the G10 currencies and emerging markets. Most Asian bourses were lower. The Nikkei (though not the Topix) and Hong Kong were the chief exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive day, in what looks like the first back-to-back loss since early this month. US equity futures are lower, with the NASDAQ, which eked...

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AUDUSD buyers and sellers start to look for a break. Here’s why?

2023-04-19

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The AUDUSD is consolidating with the lows and highs - along with technical levels - starting to converge. When that happens, it is time to anticipate a break and hopefully a run in the direction of the break.  In this video, I outline what I mean and what levels are key going forward.

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The USD is selling off in early US trading after rising into the session.

2023-04-19

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The ups and downs continue in the forex market. The USD was the strongest of the majors coming into the US session but is coming off and retracing some of those gains as US trading gets underway. What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD from a technical perspective.

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The Dollar Comes Back Bid

2023-04-19

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2023-04-19

Overview: It has taken some time, but the dollar has found better traction. It traded above JPY135 for the first time since mid-March and yesterday's setback has been mostly recouped against the other G10 currencies. Sterling is the most resilient after higher-than-expected inflation. Equities are lower. Japan's Nikkei snapped an eight-day advance and most of the other large bourses in the region (except Australia and South Korea) fell. Europe's...

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NZDUSD price action and tools applied define the key levels for traders

2023-04-18

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The NZDUSD is using technical levels to define the range. The borderlines are set.

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USDCHF trades between hourly MAs as buyers and sellers battle

2023-04-18

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The USDCHF moved above the 100 hour moving average but remains below the falling 200 hour moving average. Buyers and sellers are battling it out between the moving averages. Meanwhile, for the EURCHF, it has the 100 hour moving average in 200 day moving average converged at 0.9827. That will be a key barometer for traders today with the 200 hour moving average above at 0.98488 as a key target to get to and through.

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