Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Week Ahead: US Debt Ceiling Drama Continues and the Dollar’s Two-Week Rally Stalls

2023-05-20

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2023-05-20

Mostly stronger than expected economic data, hawkish rhetoric by several Fed officials, some signs of progress on the perverse drama over the debt ceiling, and a solid week for bank shares helped the dollar extend its recent recovery. The greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The euro took out April's low (~$1.0790) and sterling traded briefly below $1.24. The US two-year note yield takes a six-session...

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What levels are in play for the GBPUSD and why through the Fed Chair speech

2023-05-19

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In this insightful video, we examine the recent price action of GBPUSD, focusing on its retracement higher and subsequent rejection at the 100-hour moving average. Sellers stepped in at the critical level, driving the price back below a significant swing area. By staying below this level, sellers maintain their dominance in the market. We also discuss the importance of the 100-hour moving average as a conservative stop level for sellers...

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Key Chart Points Hold and the Dollar’s Rally Stalls Ahead of the Weekend

2023-05-19

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2023-05-19

Overview: Hawkish comments from Fed officials and the first decline in continuing unemployment claims below 1.8 mln in two months boosted US rates and the odds of a June rate hike rose to about 37%. This represents a near tripling of the probability in the past week. It has been a trend with the odds rising in 9 of the past 11 sessions. The two-year note yield has risen for the past five sessions coming into today for a cumulative gain of about 35...

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GBPUSD continues move lower. What would ruin the trend move now?

2023-05-18

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Join us in this comprehensive video analysis as we delve into the current trend of GBPUSD, which is exhibiting a downward trajectory. We explore the key factors that could potentially disrupt or invalidate this bearish move. By breaking down the technical aspects driving the market, we provide valuable insights into the bias, risks, and targets for GBPUSD. Stay informed and gain a deeper understanding of the GBPUSD market dynamics by watching this...

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AUDUSD moves to new session low and new low for May 2023

2023-05-18

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The AUDUSD has been stepping lower since peaking last week. The corrective moves higher have been finding willing sellers against the falling 100 hour moving average. That has kept the sellers more in control. In trading yesterday and again today the price moved up toward that moving average and found sellers giving them the go-ahead to take the price lower from a technical perspective. The low price just extended below the early May low but only...

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GBPUSD stayed below a key hourly MA today and that gave sellers the go-ahead to push lower

2023-05-18

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The GBPUSD moved below the 100 hour moving average late in the day yesterday after a break above a failed. In trading today in the Asian session, the high found the sellers against that moving average, and it gave the sellers the go-ahead to push to the downside. That move to the downside has taken the price below the low price from yesterday near 1.2421 and also below an old swing area on the daily chart between 1.24228 and 1.2447. If the sellers...

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The USDJPY breaks to the upside after Fed Logan comments

2023-05-18

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The USDJPY is trading and breaking to the upside after Fed's Logan said that the data does not support a pause in June. The move to the upside has taken the price away from its 200-day moving average and above a swing area between 137.499 and 138.139. The price is also above the May 1 high at 137.75 and the early March high at 137.91. Those levels are now close risk for the pair.

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EURUSD falls below KEY support targets. What next?

2023-05-18

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The EURUSD is breaking to the downside and in the process is falling below its key 100 day moving average currently at 1.0805. The 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 15 low is also at that level increasing its importance. As always a price remains below the 1.0805 level the sellers remain in control and the doors open for further downside momentum.

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Yen and Yuan Fall to New Lows for the Year

2023-05-18

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2023-05-18

Overview: Some creeping optimism about the US debt ceiling, easing of pressure on bank shares, and a continued rise in US rates helped the dollar extend its recent recovery. Over the past two weeks or so, the US 2-year premium has risen 25-30 bp against Germany and nearly 25 bp against the UK. The 10-year US Treasury has risen from the lower end of its seven-month range (~3.30%) earlier this month to approach the upper end of the range that has...

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USDCAD moves below series of MAs today with one more to go

2023-05-17

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Join us as we analyze the recent price action of USD/CAD in this insightful video. Witness the back-and-forth movement of the pair, including today's trading session. Although the price has dipped below key moving averages such as the 100-day MA, 100-hour MA, and 200-day MA, it has found support from buyers at the 200-hour MA. The question arises: Will this last moving average be broken? Higher oil prices, up approximately $2 on the day,...

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GBPUSD rebounds after a break below downside target fails

2023-05-17

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Explore the latest developments in GBP/USD trading as we analyze the pair's rebound in this engaging video. Witness the reversal of earlier declines experienced during the London session, propelling the pair higher. The move brings GBP/USD closer to the 100-hour moving average, a level likely to provide resistance. Additionally, a swing area aligns with this level, preceded by natural resistance at 1.25000. Join us to uncover the details and...

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USDJPY makes a break for it…

2023-05-17

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Join us as we delve into the current market dynamics of USD/JPY in this informative video. Witness the pair's decisive move above the crucial 200-day moving average and a significant swing area ranging from 136.912 to 137.095. But what makes this area so important? Find out all the details and insights in this video.

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EURUSD sniffs key support target and finds early buyers

2023-05-17

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Discover the latest developments in EUR/USD trading in this engaging video. Witness the extended downward movement, bringing the pair to a new low not seen since early April. The price now approaches critical support levels, defined by the 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement of the upward move from below March 15. Key support is anticipated at the level of 1.0805, with the price reaching as low as 1.08127 today, just a few pips away from...

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The Yen is Sold Despite Better than Expected Q1 GDP and the Greenback Pushes Above CNY7.0

2023-05-17

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2023-05-17

Overview: Better than expected US core retail sales and manufacturing output sent US rates higher and helped lift the greenback during the North American session after a heavier tone in Asia and Europe. The US two-year note rose to almost 4.12% and the 10-year note yield increased to 3.57%. Both are the best levels in two weeks. The dollar traded firmer against most of the major currencies and the Dollar Index approached the one-month high set on...

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The USD is moving higher vs the EUR, GBP and JPY, but is lower vs CAD after higher CAD CPI

2023-05-16

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Join us for the morning forex technical report as we examine the latest developments in the currency markets. In today's session, the USD demonstrates strength against the EUR, GBP, and JPY, while experiencing a decline against the CAD. This shift comes in response to the stronger-than-expected Canada CPI data released today. Stay updated with the morning forex technical report to gain valuable insights into the currency market dynamics and make...

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Biden to Go to G7 Summit with Debt Ceiling Unresolved

2023-05-16

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2023-05-16

Overview:  The US debt ceiling talks resume at the White House today but a deal is unlikely to be announced. President Biden will attend the G7 summit in Hiroshima with the debt ceiling still looming. The dollar is mostly softer as last week's gains are pared. The Swiss franc and Japanese are the strongest in the G10. The Thai baht and South African rand, among the market's favorites yesterday are seeing those gains retraced. The JP Morgan Emerging...

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Aloha. The morning forex technical report outlines the key levels in play for key pairs

2023-05-15

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Aloha. The morning forex technical report looks at the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? Why? What's next?

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Markets Catch Breath as Politics Trumps Economics

2023-05-15

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2023-05-15

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating last week's gains. The big news has been on the political front. Thailand's opposition parties dealt the military-led government a powerful blow. But in Turkey, Erdogan staved off a serious challenge and a run-off later this month looks likely, while his party maintained its parliamentary majority. Tensions over arms shipments to Russia have eased between the US and South Africa, giving the rand a boost....

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Week Ahead: Does the Dollar have Legs?

2023-05-13

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2023-05-13

There are different ways to measure it, but the dollar just put in its best week of the year. The greenback rose against all the G10 currencies, and the Dollar Index rose by the most since last September. It also appreciated against most emerging market currencies, with the notable exceptions of a handful of Latam currencies. It seems to be an overdue technical correction. Few genuinely believe that the US will default given the ominous...

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The USDJPY Story: What the 4-hour chart tells traders about the trading bias

2023-05-12

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The USDJPY traded up and down this week with clearly defined support and resistance levels. When a break higher failed earlier this week, the price rotated lower. However, the low found support against a key MA level, giving the buyers the go-ahead to re-probe the upside. On Friday, May 12, the price moved above a key MA level, a key swing area going back to February, and the storyline took a twist with buyers taking more control. What next?...

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