Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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USDCAD finds support against the downside moving average target and bounces

2023-05-31

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USDCAD moved lower and tested the 200 hour MA target on the downside. Buyers stalled the fall. The price moved back higher. That move to the upside took the price back to the 100 hour MA where sellers are now leaning. So buyers against the 200 hour MA below. Sellers are leaning against the 100 hour MA. Traders will be looking for the next shove outside that area for the next bias clues.

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USDCHF moves above the midpoint of 2023 range and 100 day MA. BULLISH.

2023-05-31

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The USDCHF is up sharply today extending above a swing area on the daily chart between 0.9081 and 0.91015. The break above that area then targeted a dual technical level on the daily chart defined by the 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range, and the 100-day moving average. Both of those levels come in at 0.91297. That key level has also been broken increasing the bullish bias on the daily chart. It has also set the level as a close risk level...

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NZDUSD moves to the lowest level since November 2022. What next?

2023-05-31

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NZDUSD price breaks below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 low. The NZDUSD yesterday moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022. That level comes in at 0.60242. The low price yesterday reached 0.6024. Today, the price moved below that 50% level, and it opened the door for further selling. The current prices trading to a new session lower 0.5987. Risk on a daily chart is a move back above the 50% retracement. Stay...

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GBPUSD buyers had their shot. They missed. What next?

2023-05-31

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The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday but could not sustain momentum and get above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range. The inability to extend above that level was a big failure for the buyers. The sellers are back in control.  The price decline today has taken the pair below the 100-hour moving average, but the price has rebounded.  The 200-hour moving average at 1.23872 is now close risk. If the sellers can keep the lid against that...

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USDJPY trades between hourly moving average levels. Await the next shove.

2023-05-31

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The USDJPY is trading in a fairly narrow up-and-down trading range today. The low to high trading range is 75 pips. The average of the last 22 trading days (around a month of trading), is 117 pips. Technically looking at the hourly chart below, the price low in the late Asian session approached the rising 200-hour moving average at 139.299 and found willing support buyers. The low price reached 139.307. The USDJPY price had not traded below the...

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EURUSD trendline stalls the fall in trading today. What next?

2023-05-31

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The EURUSD fell to the lowest level since March 20 in training today. The low price extended to 1.0658. The declines erased the rebound gains from yesterday. The low price yesterday reach 1.06718 before rebounding to an intraday high of 1.07474. The move higher to the price above the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above), but fell short of the falling 200-hour moving average target (green line in the chart above). In trading...

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Debt Ceiling Progress, Weak Chinese and Japanese Data, and Soft EMU CPI, Sends the Dollar Higher

2023-05-31

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2023-05-31

Overview: The US budget agreement passed a House committee vote by 7-6 and the bill is scheduled to be voted on by the entire House today before the Senate take it up with the idea of passing it Monday. The procedural step plus the weakness of China and Japanese data and soft CPI figures from Europe has lifted the greenback against all the major currencies. The euro and Australian dollar have been sold to new lows, while the dollar holds ever so...

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AUDUSD made a break to the downside last week. What now?

2023-05-30

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Last week, AUDUSD took a downward turn, breaching the boundaries of a pre-established "red box" with a lower range of 0.6564 - 0.6572. This deviation from the swing area appeared to fortify the confidence of sellers, culminating in a further dip to a low of 0.64898 last Thursday. Although a slight correction has been witnessed since then, in today's trading the high of 0.65587 still fell short of revisiting the aforementioned swing area...

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S&P index trades above and below unchanged. Key MA looms below.

2023-05-30

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The S&P index managed to close above its 100-week moving average last week for the first time since August, a feat that, although achieved by a slim margin, hands more control to buyers. In today's trading, the index hit a new peak since the week of August 15, at 4231.10, before retracting into negative territory with a low of 4201.95. Notably, this is still above the current week's 100-week moving average of 4198.84. If the index can maintain...

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USDCAD sellers tried to extend below 50% but finds buyers

2023-05-30

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The USDCAD sellers tried to extend below the 50% of the move down from the March high on the 4-hour chart today, but could not keep the momentum lower. The price has moved back above that level, and the buyers are more in control. Can they stay above the midpoint level at 1.35808?

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GBPUSD breaks (and stays) above 200 hour MA today

2023-05-30

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The GBPUSD is surging to the upside in trading today, and in the process has seen the price extend above its 200-hour moving average at 1.23905. The high price has reached up to 1.2446 so far. That level took the price of the pair, just above a swing area high at 1.24454, but fell just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 10 high at 1.24493. The price has backed off (seller's leaning against the 38.2% retracement) with the...

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USDJPY trades closes below 100 hour MA for first time since May 12

2023-05-30

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USDJPY below 100 hour MAThe USDJPY has fallen below its 100 hour moving average at 139.949 and close below that level over the last 2 hourly bars.  The price of the pair last close below that moving average on May 12. The last cycle low was on May 3 at 133.492. The high price today reached 140.96 before rotating back to the downside. That's a move of about 743 pips in 18 trading days. Not a bad move.   The price low today reached 139.57. That...

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EURUSD closes above key hourly MA. Can it stay above now?

2023-05-30

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The EURUSD has moved and closed above its 100-hour moving average in trading today (blue line in the chart above) currently at 1.07285. The move came after reaching new lows on March 20 (at 1.06718). Looking back in time, the price moved above the 100 hour moving average back on May 22, May 23, and May 24, but the momentum faded fairly quickly. The question now is whether the 100-hour moving average remains broken and whether the price will then...

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The Dollar Reverses Early Gains

2023-05-30

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2023-05-30

Overview:  The debt ceiling drama is not over. The agreement between the negotiating teams of President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy sets the stage for the next act in the drama: each side must deliver the votes. A preliminary vote today in the House of Representatives is likely today ahead of floor vote tomorrow. Still, the market is optimistic, and risk is favored. Asia Pacific bourses were mixed today. We note that the chip sector helped...

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trade Idea for 29 may, 2023

2023-05-29

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Bitcoin still seems bullish but where can one enter? See some trade ideas within. See more at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-and-trade-idea/

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June 2023 Monthly

2023-05-27

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2023-05-27

June is a pivotal month. The US debt-ceiling political drama cast a pall over sentiment even if it did not prevent the dollar from rallying or the S&P 500 and NASDAQ from setting new highs for the year. It is as if the two political parties in the US are playing a game of chicken and daring the other side to capitulate. Both sides are incentivized to take to the brink to convince their constituents that they secured the best deal possible. No...

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NZDUSD down for the 4th day in a row. Extends through swing area and looks toward 50%..

2023-05-26

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The NZDUSD has tumbled 3.6% this week with the last 4 trading days to the downside. That is the biggest move lower since September 19, 2022. What does the sharp fall do to the technical picture as the week comes to a close?

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S&P index retests its 100 week moving average and backs off. Nasdaq above 100 week MA.

2023-05-26

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Both the S&P and the Nasdaq broad indices are trading around the 100 week moving average as the week works toward the close. The S&P is just below the level near 4200. The Nasdaq is above the MA at 12902.78 currently. Can both close above those key 100 week MAs this week and tilt the bias more to the upside?

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GBPUSD rotates back lower. 100 day MA the focus

2023-05-26

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The 100 day MA near 1.2287. The GBPUSD moved higher in trading today held by better-than-expected retail sales. The price extended up to and through the falling 100-hour moving average currently at 1.23839 (blue line in the chart above). The price also entered into a swing area that has a number of different swing lows and swing highs going back to the end of March (see red numbered circles). The momentum could not take the price above that swing...

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USDJPY left to right chart bias is still to the upside. 50% retracement holds support.

2023-05-26

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50% retracement near 139.574 is a close risk and short-term bias defining level. The USDJPY dipped to the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 high after breaking above that level yesterday.  The corrective move dipped just below that level but found buyers ahead of the better-than-expected US data. That data sent the USDJPY back to the upside. The buyers remain in full control.   Stay above the 50% retracement at 139.574 is more bullish. The...

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