Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Japan’ Q1 GDP was Revised Up, While the Eurozone’s was Revised Down

2023-06-08

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2023-06-08

Overview: The back-to-back surprise rate hikes by the Australia and Canada spurred speculation that the Fed could hike next week, and this lifted US rates and helped the dollar recover. The odds of a hike increased, according to the indicative pricing in the Fed funds futures market from about a 20% chance to a little above 35%. now. At yesterday's high, the two-year yield was up a little more than 25 bp since the low before the US employment data...

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USDCHF tests yesterday’s high and 0.9100 level

2023-06-07

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The USDCHF is having another up-and-down trading day today with the price trading above and below its near converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages (near 0. 9070). The early US sessions saw the price moving low but was then boosted after the Bank of Canada rate hike. Momentum took the price back above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages. The last few hours has seen a consolidation near high levels from yesterday at 0.9097 and the natural...

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AUDUSD trades to a new session low. Looks toward 50% midpoint of the May trading range.

2023-06-07

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50% midpoint comes in at 0.66376. The AUDUSD is trading to a new session low at 0.66529. The pair has moved back into the trading range from after the RBA rate hike yesterday. Earlier today the price broke to a new high going back to mid-May. That move higher yesterday took the pair above the 50% midpoint of the May trading range, and also the high prices from both Friday and Monday at 0.66376. The high price yesterday reached 0.66834 before...

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NZDUSD moves lower after earlier move higher runs out steam

2023-06-07

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The NZDUSD is moving lower after an earlier move higher in the early New York session ran out of steam. The high price reached the high of a swing area between 0.60829 and 0.60949. The subsequent fall took the price back below the 100-hour moving average of 0.60703 and the 200-hour moving average of 0.60532. Staying below those moving averages keeps the sellers more in control. The trading range of the last 4 trading days is only about 70 pips if...

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Bank of Canada ahead. Some levels in play.

2023-06-07

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BOC rate decision ahead

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USDJPY tries to extend higher but has trouble

2023-06-07

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USDJPY trades above 100 hour MA, but has 200 hour MA above to conquer

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GBPUSD buyers try to make a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

2023-06-07

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Buyers move above the 100 are moving average 1.24542. The GBPUSD buyers are trying to make a play to the upside. But the question is can they keep the momentum going? The move so far has taken the price above a swing area between 1.2435 and 1.24497 and the 100-hour moving at 1.24542. Staying above those levels would keep the buyers more in control in the short term. The low price today could not extend below the low price from yesterday giving the...

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EURUSD continues non-trending trading today

2023-06-07

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Buyers are the latest to try to take control. The EURUSD is continuing its non-trending trading today. The pair has been confined to a range from 1.0666 to 1.0732 for the week. Buyers are trying to hold support against a top of a swing area at 1.0704, but need to get and stay above 200 and 100 hour moving averages near 1.0714 area. Doing that would have traders looking up toward the swing area at 1.0747 – 1.0759 if able to break above the high for...

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BINANCE founder lost 1.4B dollars in 1 day. So where is BNB coin headed now…

2023-06-07

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Diving deep into a turbulent period for crypto magnates, this video analyses the recent hit to the fortunes of the industry's wealthiest figures following a double whammy of legal cases against Binance and Coinbase. In an unprecedented turn of events, the SEC's aggressive move has carved a $1.4 billion chunk from the wealth of crypto's leading titan. In this intriguing saga, we'll also explore the dynamics of the BnB coin and its role in this...

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The USDCAD traders set up for the BOC rate decision tomorrow

2023-06-06

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Price remains below the 100 and 200 day MAs. The USDCAD is trading up and down today, but remains below key MA levels to the topside. ON the daily chart, the pair is about 100 pips below the 100/200 day MAs near 1.3512.  Drilling in to the hourly chart, the pair is below the falling 100 hour MA at 1.3467. It would take a move above the daily MAs and the falling 100 hour MA to tilt the technical bias back to the upside. It is the risk for the...

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AUDUSD bounces back to the upside. Buyers keep control.

2023-06-06

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Key target level looms above at 200 day moving average at 0.66923

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GBPUSD sellers (USD buyers) have pushed the pair to new session lows and below hourly MAs

2023-06-06

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The GBPUSD sellers are making a play below the 200 hour MA in early US trading today. Can they keep that momentum going to the downside? A swing area down to 1.2386 is the next target that if broken would give sellers more comfort/control, and increase the 200 hour MA as a risk defining level.

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USDJPY buyers making a play in early US trading

2023-06-06

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The USDJPY buyers are making a play above the 100/200 hour MA in early US trading. Those MA come in at 139.493 and 139.77.  If the buyers are serious, moving away from the MAs would show their commitment. The USDJPY pair has been trading within a fairly narrow range between 138.73 and 140.92 over the last 10 or so trading days. The pair remains near the high of the move up from May, it is just having difficulty keeping the momentum going as...

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EURUSD moves to new session lows and new lows for the week

2023-06-06

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The EURUSD tried to move higher in the early Asian session and heading into the European morning session, but could not sustain upside momentum above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart below).  Weaker data ahead of Germany  (factory orders) and EU (retail sales) helped to push the currency back to the downside. Buyers turn to sellers on the move back below the 200 and 100 hour moving averages which are near...

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RBA Surprises with a Quarter-Point Hike and German Factory Orders Disappoint

2023-06-06

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2023-06-06

Overview: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised many with a quarter-point hike and German factory orders unexpectedly fell. Reports suggest that China has asked banks to cut deposit rates. The next result is the Australian dollar is the strongest currency in the G10 and helped lift the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting tomorrow. Australian stocks sold off (~1.2%) while large markets outside of China rose in the region. Europe's...

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GBPUSD stays within the hourly MA range

2023-06-05

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The US trading session started the day by falling below the 100 hour moving average(blue line in the chart) and then extending below the 200 hour moving average(green line in the chart below). The sellers were in control. However the ISM nonmanufacturing data came in weaker than expectations and the price quickly moved higher. That rally moved all the way up back to the 100 hour moving average were sellers have once again leaned. Staying below the...

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USDCHF bias shifts lower after weaker US data

2023-06-05

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What are the technicals driving the USDCHF now? A technical look at the pair.

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GBPUSD sellers taking more and more control in trading today

2023-06-05

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The GBPUSD has moved lower in trading today.  The early catalyst was getting below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). The price then moved down and below a swing area between 1.2386 and 1.2397. The 200 hour moving average is also near that area 1.23989 and is now close risk for sellers.  Stay below 1.23989 (call it 1.2400), and the sellers are more in control.

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EURUSD falls helped by weaker ISM services data today

2023-06-05

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The EURUSD is moving to a new session low in early US trading. The pair is being helped by weaker ISM services data today (and perhaps better jobs on Friday in the US - although it was mixed). Technicals are bearish below a swing area between 1.0690 and 1.0704. Stay below is more bearish today. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour MAs, tilting the bias to the downside. On the downside, the next target comes in at 1.0660 and then the...

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Dollar Gains Extended, Oil Steadies at Higher Levels after Saudi’s Cut, US Bill Deluge Begins Today

2023-06-05

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2023-06-05

Overview:  The US dollar has extended its post-employment gains today, helped by firmer rates and several countries seeing downward revisions from the preliminary May PMI. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies and most of the emerging market currencies, including Turkey, India, and China. July WTI gapped higher after the Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary and unilateral cut of one million barrels a day in output...

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