Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Market Takes Developments in Stride

2025-08-19

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2025-08-19

Overview: Capital market activity is subdued. The US dollar and the dollar-bloc currencies ae mostly a little softer, while the other G10 currencies are around 0.1-0.2% firmer. Emerging market currencies are mixed with central European currencies mostly firmer, though the Russian ruble is the notable exception, off about 1%. European bond yields are slightly softer, …

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Dollar Consolidates as Market Awaits Fresh Incentives

2025-08-18

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2025-08-18

The US dollar is mostly consolidating today in quiet turnover. Among the G10 currencies, the dollar-bloc, which underperformed before the weekend, are firmer today, while the other G10 currencies are softer. The focus is not so much on data today but on the meeting in the White House with Ukraine's Zelensky and the European leaders to discuss the outcome of the President Trump's talk before the weekend with Putin.

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Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed’s Hand?

2025-08-16

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2025-08-16

The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Argentine peso was the best performer, gaining 2% but the Argentine political and economic conditions appear worsening and a weaker rather than a stronger currency looks needed.

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Dollar Slumps on the Anniversary of the End of Bretton Woods

2025-08-15

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2025-08-15

Overview: Today marks the 54th anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement that pegged the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar. Nixon, who was regarded as among the most conservative presidents of his generation also announced a 90-day wage and price freeze and a 10% surcharge on imports. After some …

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Telling the Fed What to Do is Not Sufficient, US Treasury Secretary Tells BOJ How to Conduct Monetary Policy.

2025-08-14

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2025-08-14

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer today against the G10 currencies, but exceptions are notable. The yen is rising for the third consecutive session, apparently boosted by calls from the US Treasury Secretary for the Bank of Japan to raise rates. The Norwegian krone is slightly higher after the central bank kept rates steady …

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Greenback Slump Extended

2025-08-13

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2025-08-13

Overview: The US dollar is under pressure. The losses seen yesterday have been extended against nearly all the G10 currencies. It is also lower against all the emerging market currencies but the Turkish lira and Russian ruble. There were some murmurings the Fed cutting 50 bp next month, and Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested it may …

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RBA Delivers Dovish Cut, UK’s Labor Market Stabilizes, Attention now US CPI

2025-08-12

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2025-08-12

Overview: There were three highlights for today and two, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the UK's labor market update are behind us. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish cut after last month's hawkish hold. It signaled scope for two more rate cuts. The UK's labor market appeared to …

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Greenback Steadies Ahead of Tomorrow’s CPI

2025-08-11

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2025-08-11

Overview: With Japanese markets closed for Mountain Day and a quiet summer Monday in Europe, activity in the foreign exchange market is subdued. It may continue in North America today, ahead of tomorrow’s CPI. Most of the G10 currencies are in narrow ranges and +/- 0.2% against the US dollar. Emerging market currencies are mostly …

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Week Ahead: Firm US CPI Won’t Deter September Fed Rate Cut

2025-08-09

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2025-08-09

It seems clear that the July jobs data was an important turning point. The two dovish governor dissents from the FOMC's decision to standpat, citing not economic strength like the White House, but recognizing the weakness in the labor market, were not outliers as much as the proverbial canaries in a coal mine. The market …

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US Tariffs Roil Gold Futures, while Greenback Steadies

2025-08-08

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2025-08-08

Overview: Most the dollar's late sell-off yesterday after the White House endorsed Stephen Miran to fill the remainder of Governor Kugler's term at the Federal Reserve has been recouped today. In mostly narrow ranges, the greenback is firmer against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar and sterling. The dollar is also trading with a …

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Anticipated BOE Rate Cut Doesn’t Prevent Sterling from Pushing Higher

2025-08-07

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2025-08-07

Overview: After selling off sharply last Friday, the US dollar consolidated on Monday and Tuesday before taking another leg lower yesterday. It remains under pressure today, though it has stabilized in late European morning turnover, though even a dismal German industrial production report was unable to deter the euro from rising to almost $1.17. It …

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Consolidative Phase Continues in FX Market as Key Events Loom

2025-08-06

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2025-08-06

Overview: The US dollar's July rally came to an abrupt end last Friday and continues to mostly consolidate as new developments are awaited. In particular, the nomination for Governor Kugler's successor on the Federal Reserve Board may trigger the next act in the drama, though the market now is considerably more comfortable with the idea …

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August 2025 Monthly

2025-08-02

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2025-08-02

The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration of US growth, when looking through the trade-related distortion, and …

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Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So

2025-07-31

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2025-07-31

No commentary on Friday but August monthly drops Saturday.  Daily commentary to resume Wednesday, August 6. Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more …

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Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session

2025-07-30

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2025-07-30

Overview:  Ahead of an important North American session, the US dollar has a slightly softer tone in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars are laggards, with small losses. The yen and sterling are the strongest with around 0.2-0.3% gains. The North American session features the Bank of Canada and FOMC …

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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow’s Key Events

2025-07-29

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2025-07-29

Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American participants can extend it. We suspect that the market will turn more cautious now, ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting outcome, where many still expect at least one dovish …

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Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro

2025-07-28

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2025-07-28

Overview: The US and EU struck a trade deal that is less onerous than threatened and reduces the uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. In May, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on most EU goods, and yesterday, agreed to 15% (including autos and pharma, but not metals). There seems to be some debate over whether …

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Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth

2025-07-26

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2025-07-26

We had adopted a working hypothesis that the after recording lows in early July that the greenback was going to retrace the last leg down that began around June 23. That appeared to run its course around July 17. We anticipated last week's pullback. However, the price action warns that the dollar's upside correction may …

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The Dollar Recovers Ahead of the Weekend

2025-07-25

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2025-07-25

Overview: The greenback is firm as the week winds down. Next week could be one of the most eventful of the year, with FOMC meeting, US and eurozone Q2 GDP, US PCE deflator and jobs data, and the August 1 "reciprocal tariff" extension deadline. The recovery in US rates has seen the dollar rise toward … Continue reading »

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Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs

2025-07-24

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2025-07-24

Overview: With a US-Japanese deal in hand, and the prospects of an extended tariff truce between the US and China, many perceive some tail risks associated with the US foreign economic policy have diminished. This has encouraged the animal spirits and helped drive equity prices higher. The dollar is mixed. The uptick in Australia's PMI …

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