Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, April 30: ECB Takes Center Stage

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

Overview: Equities continue to recover even as deep economic contractions are reported. Yesterday, the US said Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized pace of 4.8%, while the eurozone reported today that output fell 3.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1.  Hong Kong and South Korea were closed, but the rest of the Asia Pacific bourses rallied strongly with several, including Australia and India, rising more than 2%.

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FX Daily, April 29: Heavy Dollar amid Month-End Pressure

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Overview: The dollar is lower across the board as dealers attribute the selling to month-end pressures ahead of the FOMC today and ECB tomorrow and long-holiday weekend for many. Japan's Golden Week holiday has already begun. Despite the loss in US equities yesterday, despite the higher opening, it has not spilled over, as Alphabet earnings helped lift sentiment.

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FX Daily, April 28: Oil’s Slides before Steadying, while Easing of Lockdowns Support Risk-Taking

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

Overview: Equities are building on yesterday's gains.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% yesterday and edged higher today. Shanghai and Austalia stand out as exceptions.   In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is extending yesterday's 1.8% gain to reach its best level since March 11. Today would be the fourth advance in the past five sessions. US shares are firmer.

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FX Daily, April 27: Equities Rally and the Dollar Eases to Start the Week

2020-04-27

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2020-04-27

Overview: Global equities are beginning the new week on an upbeat note.  All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by more than 2% gains in the Nikkei and Taiwan.  European bourses are higher.  All the industry groups are participating and financials and consumer discretionary leading the way. 

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FX Daily, April 24: Markets Limp into the Weekend

2020-04-24

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2020-04-24

Overview:  The reversal in US equities yesterday set the stage for today's losses.  All the Asia Pacific bourses fell today but Australia.  For the week, the regional index is off more than 2%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was flat for the week coming into today's sessions.  It is off around 0.5% in late morning activity. 

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FX Daily, April 23: Investors Take PMI Crash in Stride

2020-04-23

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2020-04-23

Overview: Investors have remained fairly calm in the face of flash April PMI crashes and an increase of virus cases in several European countries. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, with the notable exceptions of China and Australia.  The Nikkei rose for the first time this week, and its 1.5% gain led the region.

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FX Daily, April 22: Investors Catch Collective Breath, but Sentiment remains Fragile

2020-04-22

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2020-04-22

Overview:  Risk-appetites appear to have stabilized for the moment. Most equity markets are higher. Japan and Malaysia were exceptions, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time this week. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recouping about a third of yesterday's loss.

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FX Daily, April 21: Oil Drilled Below Zero, Equity Rally Stalls, Greenback Advances

2020-04-21

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2020-04-21

Overview:  Oil's wild ride has been joined by two other developments that are keeping investors off-balance. First, reports suggest that North Korea's Kim Jong-Un maybe in critical condition after surgery. He apparently was absent from last week's events celebrating his grandfather.

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FX Daily, April 16: Markets Brace for another Jump in US Weekly Jobless Claims

2020-04-16

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2020-04-16

Overview:  Equity losses in the US appeared to drag most Asia Pacific markets lower today, with China and India the notable exceptions.  European bourses are higher, and the only energy sector is a drag on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600,  which is around 1% higher in late morning turnover, while US shares are also trading firmer.  Asia Pacific 10-year benchmark yields eased. 

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FX Daily, April 15: Dollar Rises as Equities Slump

2020-04-15

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2020-04-15

Overview:  The recovery in equities stalled, and the risk-off mood has helped lift the US dollar, which had been trending lower. Taiwan and Malaysia were notable exceptions in the Asia Pacific regions to the heavier equity tone. The Nikkei gave back almost 0.5% after surging more than 3% on Tuesday. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is ending a five-day rally. 

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FX Daily, April 14: Equities are Firm but New Developments Needed or Risk Appetites may Become Satiated

2020-04-14

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2020-04-14

Overview: Risk appetites have returned today after taking yesterday off. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced every day last week, slipped yesterday, and jumped back today. Most of the national benchmark advanced at least 1.5%, and the Nikkei led the way with a 3% rally to reach its best level since mid-March.

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What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF

2020-04-14

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2020-04-14

The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus.  Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way.  Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing lockdowns. 

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Cool Video: CNBC Asia

2020-04-13

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2020-04-13

As the markets were re-opening in Asia earlier today, I joined Martin Soong and Sir Jegarajah on CNBC Asia.  I had returned from a business trip and visited our summer house on the Jersey shore for what I thought was going to be a weekend more than a month ago.  

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FX Daily, April 10: Eight Things to Know about Global Capital Markets on Good Friday

2020-04-10

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2020-04-10

Most of the financial centers in Europe and North America are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.  Many markets in Europe will also be closed on Monday. Here is a summary of key developments.

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FX Daily, April 9: Three Deals Needed ahead of Holiday Weekend

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

Overview: Three deals need to be struck. First, the Eurogroup of finance ministers needs to reach an agreement of proposals for joint action to the heads of state. Second, oil producers need to cut output if prices are to stabilize. Third, the US Congress needs to strike a deal to provide more funding. Investor seems hopeful, and risk appetites are have lifted equities.

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Cool Video: OIl, ECB, and Animal Spirits

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

I had the privilege to join Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade (from a remote location) this morning to talk about the global markets.  I make four points.  First, the reversal of the S&P 500 yesterday set the tone for Asia and Europe.  Volatility throughout the capital markets remains elevated, even if off the peaks.  

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FX Daily, April 8: Flavor of the Day: Consolidation

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

Overview: Global equities are struggling after the S&P 500 staged a dramatic reversal yesterday. The early 3.5% gain was completely unwound and closed slightly lower.  With few exceptions (e.g., Japan and the Philippines), most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are lower.

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FX Daily, April 6: Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets

2020-04-06

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2020-04-06

Overview:  Reports suggesting that some of the hot spots for the virus contagion appear to be leveling off, and this is helping underpin risk appetites today.  The curve seems to be flattening in Italy, Spain, and France.  In the US, there are some early signs of leveling off in NY, and now, the number of states with infection rates above 20% is less than 10 from over 40 last week.

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FX Daily, April 03: Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

Overview:  Global equities are finishing the week on a soggy tone despite the 2%+ gains seen in the US yesterday. The extension of shutdowns, rising contagion and fatality rate, and imploding economies weigh on prices. In Asia, Korea and Indonesia bucked the trend to most minor gains.  Europe is giving back yesterday's gains, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nearly flat on the week.

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April Monthly

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

In March,  the G10 and many emerging market countries, governments, and central banks unveiled large emergency measures.  The motivation is to blunt the economic impact of the novel coronavirus that has seen more than two billion people around the world have their movement restricted. Large swathes of the world's economy have shut down. 

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