Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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US Yields and Dollar Rise After US Government Closure Averted

2023-10-02

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2023-10-02

Overview: The US avoided a government shutdown, barely, and this eased one of the headwinds that were anticipated. In turn, this is spurring new gains in US interest rates and helping underpin the dollar at the start of the new quarter. The 10-year Treasury is holding above 4.60% and nearing last week's high (4.68%). The two-year yield gapped higher and is near 5.10%. The high from September 21 was almost 5.20%. The Swiss franc is the only G10...

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October 2023 Monthly

2023-09-30

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2023-09-30

There are four large macro forces shape the investment and business climate here at the start of the last quarter of the year. First, the US economic outperformance has been stark. This has helped underpin US rates and bolsters the dollar. The divergence is likely to narrow in coming months as US growth slows rather than stronger growth prospects in other high-income countries. Second, Beijing has taken numerous measures, which although stopping...

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Dollar Sets Back into Month- and Quarter-End Ahead of likely US Government Shutdown

2023-09-29

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2023-09-29

Overview: The dollar's surge stalled yesterday, and follow-through selling has pressed it lower against all the G10 currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Scandis are leading the move. Month-end, quarter-end pressures, coupled with a likely partial shutdown of the government beginning Monday, and after key chart levels were approached or violated earlier this week, serving as a bit a cathartic event. The Swiss franc snapped a 12-day losing streak...

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Looming US Government Shutdown Stems the Dollar’s Surge

2023-09-28

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2023-09-28

Overview: The increasingly likely partial US federal government shutdown has spurred a bout of liquidation of long dollar positions. The psychologically important JPY150 level was approached, and the euro was sold through $1.05 yesterday, and the greenback has come back better offered today. It is lower against all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the emerging market currency complex, with central European currencies and South African rand...

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Firmer Bonds and Stocks, but the Dollar Presses Ahead

2023-09-27

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2023-09-27

Overview: The S&P 500 hit three-month lows yesterday, while the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell to a four-month low. New home sales fell to their lowest level in five years. The US federal government appears headed for a partial shutdown on October 1. Still, the greenback rides high. It is extending its gains against several G10 currencies, including the euro and sterling. The Swiss franc is moving lower for the 12th...

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Neither the Threat of Intervention Nor a Possible US Government Shutdown is Derailing the Greenback

2023-09-26

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2023-09-26

Overview: The US dollar is stabilizing a bit but only after extending its gains initially It reached almost JPY149.20, while the euro slipped to $1.0570 before recovering to straddle $1.06 in the European morning. Sterling sank a little through $1.2170 but stabilized to return to almost $1.2200. The Australian dollar tested last week's low slightly below $0.6390 before resurfacing above $0.6400. The US dollar toyed with CAD1.3500, where there is a...

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Dollar Edges to New High for the Year against the Japanese Yen, While Developer Woes Hit Chinese Stocks and Yuan

2023-09-25

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2023-09-25

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week on a firm note. It is trading at new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and is bid against nearly all the G10 currencies, though the Swedish krona and Canadian dollar are resisting the greenback's push. Most emerging market currencies are heavier, with the Polish zloty and a few East Asian currencies holding their own. Gold is trading with a heavier bias near $1922, but within the ranges seen at...

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Week Ahead: Digesting Implications of the FOMC, EMU and Tokyo August CPI, and China’s PMI

2023-09-23

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2023-09-23

The most important outcome of the last week's flurry of central bank meetings was the median forecast of Fed officials for 50 bp less in cuts next year than it had anticipated in June as it revised up its growth forecasts for this year and next. The prospect for higher rates for pushed equities lower. Sterling and the Swiss franc were the weakest currencies in the G10 last week, falling by a little more than 1.1%. Both central banks did not hike...

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Yen Drops After BOJ Does Nothing and Says Little

2023-09-22

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2023-09-22

Overview:  The BOJ's failure to do anything or further ideas that an exit of the negative target rate, despite the firm CPI report helped the dollar recover the ground lost yesterday against the yen. The focus has returned to "intervention watch" and the market continues to press for the official pain threshold. Sterling is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off another 0.5% today following the BOE's decision not to hike yesterday. The...

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Higher for Longer Lifts the Dollar, while SNB Surprises Many by Standing Pat–Over to the BOE

2023-09-21

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2023-09-21

Overview: The Federal Reserve's hawkish hold, which included 50 bp less of cuts next year than it had signaled in June, has lifted the dollar against most currencies today. The notable exception is the Japanese yen. The greenback did extend its advance to new highs for the year before the market turned cautious ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies after the Swiss National...

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Softer UK CPI Weighs on Sterling and Lifts Gilts, while Yen Slumps to New Low for the Year, Ahead of the FOMC

2023-09-20

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2023-09-20

Overview: Softer than expected UK CPI has drawn attention ahead of the key event of the day, the FOMC meeting. The UK's CPI has spurred a dramatic rally in Gilts and saw sterling initially extend its recent losses, falling to new four-month lows before stabilizing. The swaps market sees less than a 50% chance of a hike by the Bank of England tomorrow. Meanwhile, even though US Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested conditions in which intervention by...

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The Canadian Dollar Shines in a Mostly Consolidative FX Market Ahead of the Flurry of Central Bank Meetings

2023-09-19

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2023-09-19

Overview: Ahead of the flurry of central bank meetings, starting with the Federal Reserve and Brazil tomorrow, the dollar is largely consolidating in narrow ranges. The euro, sterling, and yen are trading slightly heavier, while the dollar bloc and Scandis enjoy a firmer bias. The Canadian dollar stands out as is trades at its best level since mid-August ahead of its CPI report and despite a diplomatic dispute with India and the failure of...

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Calm Before the Storm: Greenback Confined to Narrow Ranges

2023-09-18

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2023-09-18

Overview:  With many central bank meetings in the days ahead, the dollar has begun the new week on a quietly and mostly in tight ranges, helped by a holiday in Tokyo. G10 currencies, outside of the Scandis are slightly firmer in European turnover. Emerging market currencies are narrowly mixed, but of note the 0.25% decline makes the Chinese yuan the weakest. The Mexican peso is extending its recovery into the seventh consecutive session. While...

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Week Ahead: Thumbnail Sketch of Central Bank Meetings

2023-09-16

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2023-09-16

The week ahead is dominated by central bank meetings. Six of the G10 central banks meets. The post-Covid monetary tightening cycle is ending. The start was not synchronized, and neither will be end. It is tempting to think that those that began the tightening cycle early will among the first to finish. Among emerging markets that is true for Brazil and Chile, both of whom have begun cutting rates. And Brazil is likely to deliver the second cut in...

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Business Travel

2023-09-13

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2023-09-13

Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for a few days.  And instead of the usual weekly, I will provide a sketch of the six G10 central banks that meet next week and a couple of interesting emerging market central banks.

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Heightened Speculation of an ECB Hike Tomorrow Fails to Lend the Euro Support

2023-09-13

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2023-09-13

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies ahead today's August US CPI report. Even increased speculation that the ECB will hike rates tomorrow has failed to lift the euro, while a larger than expected contraction in the UK's July GDP pushed sterling briefly through last week's lows. The dollar rose to a marginal new high for the week against the Japanese yen, as the market seemed uninspired by the cabinet...

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Greenback Bought on Pullback

2023-09-12

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2023-09-12

Overview: The dollar was bought after yesterday's pullback spurred by Japanese and Chinese comments and the tighter capital controls from Beijing requiring permission to buy more than $50 mln. The economic and monetary policy divergence continues to underpin the greenback. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies and is mostly inside yesterday's ranges. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by central European currencies. The Chinese...

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In Uncoordinated Steps, Japan and China Help Slow Greenback’s Rally

2023-09-11

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2023-09-11

Overview: The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted the world's third-largest economy may exit negative interest rates before the end of the year. This sparked the strongest gain in the yen in a couple of months and lifted the 10-year yield to nearly 0.70%. In an uncoordinated fashion, Chinese officials stepped their rhetoric and indicated that corporate orders to sell $50 mln or more will need authorization. This helped arrest the yuan's slide. The...

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Week Ahead: US CPI to Make the Doves Cry even if Core Eases, and Euro Vulnerable to ECB Regardless of Decision

2023-09-09

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2023-09-09

The diverging economic performance between the US and Europe, Japan, and China on the other hand is stark. Yet, a greater divergence may be between widespread discussion of de-dollarization and its incredible strength in the foreign exchange market. The eight-week rally in the Dollar Index is the longest in nine years. According to SWIFT, which is not comprehensive but remains by far the largest platform, the dollar's role in international payments...

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Yuan Sulks in to the Weekend, While Finishing Touches are Put on the Dollar Index’s Eighth Consecutive Weekly Gain

2023-09-08

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2023-09-08

Overview: The greenback is lower against most currencies today as it consolidates ahead of the weekend. The Dollar Index's eight-week advance is the longest since a 12-week rally 2014. The Chinese yuan is an exception. Its losses were extended today. Against the offshore yuan, the dollar traded above the onshore band, which is most often respected. Equities ae extending this week's slump. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region but India...

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