Turn on the financial news right now and you would think the world is ending. Fear sells. It always has. But my conversation with John Mauldin this week highlights exactly why investing based on the latest headline is a massive mistake.

While the media pushes panic about geopolitics and economic collapse, the actual data tells a completely different story. We are seeing blowout bank earnings, compounding corporate profits, and consumers who are still out there spending money. John and I sat down to discuss the danger of letting clickbait dictate your financial decisions.

If your portfolio needs to be adjusted every time a scary news alert hits your phone, you have the wrong strategy. You need a resilient approach that ignores the daily panic.

That is exactly why we host the Strategic

Michael Howell, managing director at GL Indexes and author of Capital Wars on Substack, joins us this week to break down the forces threatening global liquidity… and what they mean for your portfolio.

Michael explains how four key drivers—central bank tightening, rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and surging bond volatility—are converging to drain financial liquidity by as much as 25%. He walks through the “debt-liquidity nexus” at the heart of the modern financial system, why the 65-month liquidity cycle is turning down, and how a massive debt maturity wall from the COVID era is about to collide with shrinking capital.

And that just scratches the surface. Tune in now for the full conversation.

By the way…

You can subscribe to Michael Howell’s Substack, Capital Wars, here:

Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro is back to break down the second- and third-order effects of the US-Israel coordinated military action in Iran—and what it means for global markets, energy, and the future of the Middle East.

Jacob lays out three major macro themes he’s been wrestling with: the end of the Gulf states’ vision as safe havens for global capital, the unprecedented vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz as an energy chokepoint, and what this conflict reveals about the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world.

Also, the “why now?” question behind the strikes, the role of the IRGC and why the Venezuela playbook doesn’t work in Iran, China’s strategic positioning, and more.

Find out more about Jacob Shapiro here: https://jacobshapiro.com/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s

Eric Fine, portfolio manager at VanEck, joins us this week to break down the emerging market bond landscape in a wide-ranging conversation covering geopolitics, currencies, and why EM bonds may be one of the most compelling trades of the decade.

Eric explains how recent Middle East events created clear winners among oil-exporting emerging markets, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and how 13 years of data supports the case that EM bonds offer roughly double the yield of developed market bonds at lower volatility.
The conversation also dives into the structural advantages EM countries hold and why these fundamentals are drawing attention from institutional investors and central banks alike.

Eric also shares the story behind VanEck’s actively managed EM bond ETF, the

The bond market is trying to tell you something, and most people aren’t listening.

Neil, my guest this week at Global Macro Update, lists several bullish factors: mortgage rates have dropped, AI CapEx is boosting equity prices, tax refund season should boost consumer spending, and the effect of last year’s rate cuts should show up around now. And yet yields are drifting lower.

Neil explains what the bond market is really signaling—and why he’s more cautious on the economic outlook than the Wall Street consensus.

He was one of the few voices who pushed back against the recession narrative in 2022… and he was proven right. When someone with that track record turns cautious, it’s worth paying attention.

Whether you’re a long-duration bond bull or just trying to make sense of a confusing

Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam?

Ed D’Agostino of Mauldin Economics sits down with Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler and one of Wall Street’s sharpest oil analysts, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026.

Jan cuts through the noise on the so-called oil surplus, explains why OPEC’s “Pump for Trump” strategy didn’t crash prices, and reveals why China’s massive inventory buildup may be as much a war-preparedness move as an economic one. He also shares his outlook on US shale’s long-term trajectory, the untapped potential in Venezuela, the growing significance of offshore production, and why oil demand growth could be one of the big

If you’ve participated in private placements, you’ve probably ended up with warrants as a "sweetener" – and if you listened to the conventional wisdom, you probably sold the stock and sat on the warrants, or ignored them entirely.

While most investors treat warrants as throwaway assets or confuse them with complex options strategies, John argues they are actually the "Venture Capital" of the public markets. They offer the kind of asymmetric upside that is usually reserved for Silicon Valley insiders, but with one major difference: anyone with a brokerage account can buy them.

I honestly had never met a dedicated warrants trader before John Pangere.

We get into the weeds on why the "efficient market hypothesis" completely fails here. Because these assets are too small for the massive

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave joins me today for an insightful (and timely) conversation about emerging markets, China’s manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US.

If you’re discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), you need to hear this conversation because simplifying the opportunity abroad into one big blob is a mistake.

Louis helps reframe how we should think about investing in emerging markets, covering the lenses that matter most. We also dive into why the old 60/40 portfolio is dead, why Louis believes energy is the new anti-fragile asset, and more.

Find out more about Louis Gave here: https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/
Follow Louis Gave on LinkedIn:

The investment playbook has changed. Politics and geopolitics are no longer just background noise—they’re the foundation of every macro trade. In this conversation, Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research and the godfather of “GeoMacro,” breaks down how investors need to completely rethink their approach to markets.

In this week’s Global Macro Update, we cover:

– Wild market swings: precious metals, dollar volatility, and Fed chair speculation
– Whether the dollar is in jeopardy of losing reserve currency status
– Why Europe is more investable than you may think—and the case for European equities
– The demographic solution no one is talking about: high-quality migration flows
– Defense spending rotation: Why European defense contractors are just getting started

“I don’t think

I sat down with George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures to discuss his latest annual forecast, and what a conversation it turned out to be.

George walks us through what he calls the “re-anchoring” of the world order. The Cold War didn’t truly end with the fall of the Soviet Union—it ended in Ukraine, where Russia proved it couldn’t even take its neighbor. Now the US-China relationship has replaced the US-Russia dynamic as the world’s primary anchor, creating a fundamentally different situation.

We dig into the economic challenges both countries face, the future of NATO, and yes—I had to ask George about Greenland. George also shares his thoughts on what comes after Trump, the demographic crisis facing the developed world, and why Russia’s position has become increasingly precarious.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me to discuss AI’s evolution, which sectors to watch now, and what’s driving markets in 2026.

Liz Ann breaks down a common misconception about the Mag 7: Nvidia was the top contributor to S&P 500 returns in 2025, yet 74 stocks did better on pure price performance. Only two of the seven “Mag 7” stocks beat the index. This distinction between contribution and performance matters for how investors construct their portfolios.

We also discuss the difference between market “uncertainty” and “instability”—Liz Ann argues the current environment is better described by the latter, given the non-linear nature of policy announcements around tariffs and trade.

Our conversation ends with the most valuable takeaway: FOMO, HODL,

Many investors worry about China weaponizing its US Treasury holdings, but they might be looking in the wrong direction.

Taiwan holds nearly as much US debt as China—roughly $800 billion. But here’s what makes Taiwan’s position uniquely dangerous: private insurance companies own most of these Treasuries, not the government. These insurers hedge their holdings and face strict liquidation requirements.

In this conversation, I sit down with Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor in Chief at EconVue, and Eric Huang, a Taiwan-based geopolitical analyst and former deputy representative to the US for Taiwan’s KMT Party. Together, they’ve uncovered a systemic risk hiding in plain sight.

As Eric explains, even a credible rumor of Chinese aggression could trigger mass redemption requests from Taiwanese

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk.

Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade.

In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

We cover:
• Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors
• How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one
• Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum

Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we’ll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which provides fractional CFO services to hundreds of VC-backed startups. He works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms, giving him a unique view of the AI frontier.

In this conversation, we dig into the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, why startups aren’t going public anymore, what went wrong with crypto’s original promise, and why America still holds an edge in innovation. Plus, Lord’s blunt advice for founders trying to raise capital in today’s market—and for investors looking at VC opportunities.

Learn more about Steve Lord here:
https://burklandassociates.com/executive-team/steven-lord/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why.

Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles.

In this interview we cover:

– How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity
– Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year
– What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows
– How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle
– Why China is driving gold prices

The CNN Fear and Greed Index hit extreme fear territory this week. Yet when Brent Donnelly surveyed investors, he found something different: a market repricing risk rather than fleeing from it entirely.

Brent runs Spectra Markets and remains one of the sharpest currency traders I know. His survey revealed that zero-revenue AI plays and debt-heavy infrastructure names are getting hammered while companies with actual cash flows hold up better. The pivot point came in late October with Meta’s earnings.

Brent’s survey found that 65% of respondents would rather short OpenAI at a $500 billion valuation than go long on a three-year horizon. Most believe AI is a bubble, but they don’t think it’s topped yet.

We also discuss what happens when OpenAI’s $20/month subscription model can’t support

Bruce Mehlman is one of Washington’s sharpest political strategists. We dive deep into the recent government shutdown—why it happened, who won, and what it means for investors. Bruce also breaks down the Democratic sweep in November’s off-year elections, the AI bubble, and the economic tailwinds Wall Street is ignoring: massive foreign investment commitments, banking deregulation, and surprisingly strong corporate earnings. We also discuss the K-shaped economy that’s dividing America, why inflation remains the single most powerful political issue, and what deregulation really means for investors. Finally, Bruce pulls out his crystal ball for predictions on the 2026 midterms and who’s positioning for 2028 presidential runs on both sides.

Read Bruce Mehlman’s free Substack here:

Are we living through 1997/98 all over again? Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian breaks down why today’s tech market looks eerily similar to the dot-com bubble—but we’re not at the peak yet.

We dive into the troubling rise of circular deals, where companies like Nvidia are investing billions in their own customers—just like Cisco did in the late nineties. Jared reminds us that “it’s never different.”

We haven’t had a real bear market in 17 years (outside the pandemic), and Jared raises a critical question: Will the magnitude of the coming drawdown be proportional to the length of this bull market?

Plus, Jared reveals how he wrote his upcoming book in just 10 days, and why it’s the guide nearly every investor should follow.

Learn more about Jared Dillian here:

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race.

Jacob compares AI to containerization, arguing the real opportunities lie in companies that leverage AI for productivity, not AI companies themselves.

You’ll also hear about India’s potential as a tech superpower—and why protecting proprietary data matters more than most companies realize. We also discuss Taiwan’s strategic importance, North American trade policy under the Trump administration, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US.

Learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
https://bespokegroup.io/people/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://bit.ly/4hqqiaR

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:

There’s a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni’s predictions: he’s usually right. In our new interview, Dr. Ed explains why the labor market is in a “funk,” how retiring baby boomers are propping up consumer spending, and how AI is impacting entry-level hiring.

We also discuss why lowering rates could create a melt-up in the markets, China’s economic challenges, and whether the price of gold will reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

Get Dr. Ed’s take on Fed policy, bitcoin, and the Mag 7 by watching our interview now.

Learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni here:
https://yardeni.com/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global-macro-update?utm_source=YTB&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=JM-563&utm_content=JM563SM50017

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:

Sign up for my free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Z10/YTB

MBS Highway founder Barry Habib delivers some uncomfortable truths about the US housing market. If you’re wondering why your mortgage payment feels impossible or why your kids can’t afford to move out, this conversation explains why.

Barry walks through the real numbers behind housing affordability—spoiler: it’s not just about high prices. He explains why the common advice about needing 20% down is keeping people out of the market and shares some investment strategies most people don’t know exist.

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Z10/YTB

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/

Follow Ed

Could another tariff shock rattle the markets?

It’s been a quiet summer for most investors. Jared Dillian doesn’t expect that to last. For Jared, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market—for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.

From the Fed’s future leadership to a looming boom in commodities, Jared shares his insights on how investors should navigate these uncertain times.

Find Jared Dillian’s latest research here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Z8/YTB

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/

Follow Ed D’Agostino on X:
https://www.x.com/EdDAgostino

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:30 – US Dollar

There is important strategic information included for all the traders out there!

Jared explains why this can be a good thing

Share your thoughts in the comments: