EUR/CHF mildly falls on Friday as markets digest Eurozone HICP inflation data for November. 
The Euro weakens as it does little to change the outlook for interest rates , a key driver of FX valuations. 
CHF gains marginally on stronger GDP growth data but hamstrung by comments for the SNB’s President Schlegel. 
EUR/CHF edges lower to trade on the 0.9300 handle on Friday after the release of Eurozone inflation data continues to suggest European Central Bank (ECB) members will cut interest rates at their December meeting despite the figures meeting economists’ expectations. Lower interest rates are negative for the Euro (EUR) since they decrease net capital inflows, and this puts pressure on the pair. 

The Swiss Franc (CHF) meanwhile, gains a mild tailwind after the

USD/CHF is in a strong uptrend which keeps making higher highs. 
However it has reached overbought levels according to the RSI momentum indicator 
This means bulls should be aware of the increased risk of pullbacks. 
USD/CHF continues rising in its established uptrend but it has now reached overbought levels (above 70) according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator. When this occurs it advises long-holders not to add to their positions because of the increased risk of a pullback developing.

USD/CHF Daily Chart 

According to technical analysis theory “the trend is your friend” which means it is better to trade in the direction of the dominant trend. As such, the odds favor more upside for USD/CHF. The RSI could continue to remain overbought or

EUR/CHF is trying to break out of a Triangle pattern. 
If it succeeds it will probably lead to further downside towards the price objective for the pattern.
EUR/CHF is attempting to break out of a Triangle pattern it has formed over the last three months (see chart below).

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

A bearish close on Tuesday will indicate a decisive breakout has happened and suggest the start of a likely strong decline. 

The market activity prior to the formation of the Triangle (Since May 27) further tips the odds in favor of a downside evolution. 

If EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9307 level (September 11 lows) it will further confirm an authentic bearish breakout, with the next target to the downside at 0.9132, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the

USD/CHF might be developing a Bull Flag continuation pattern. 
This suggests there will be an extension of the uptrend to upside targets higher. 
USD/CHF – which looked as if it might be reversing trend and starting a new short-term downtrend at the start of the week – suddenly turned on a dime and spiked higher on Wednesday. 

The pair rallied to a higher high, giving the established uptrend a shot in the arm. USD/CHF has since peaked and started to go sideways, forming what looks like a potential Bull Flag continuation price pattern.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

If it is indeed a Bull Flag pattern it indicates more upside is on the cards for USD/CHF. 

A break above the flag’s high of 0.8775 would probably result in a continuation higher to a target at 0.8832, the

USD/CHF has opened a Runaway Gap higher at the open, suggesting the uptrend will continue.
Volume is low, reducing the chances that the gap represents a point of exhaustion. 
USD/CHF opened a gap higher at the open on Monday (see chart below) and then promptly fell back down. It has since closed the gap. 

Despite the speed of the decline following the gap higher, the short and medium term trend is still probably bullish, which given the old saying that “the trend is your friend” is likely to continue. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

The gap is probably what would be classified as a “Runaway Gap”. These happen during strong rallies. 

The lack of volume accompanying this gap (yellow rectangle on volume) indicates this is probably not an Exhaustion Gap which comes at the

USD/CHF is trading in a mini-range after pulling back from new highs. 
This is probably a pause before the pair goes to new highs. 
USD/CHF is consolidating within its short-term uptrend in what is likely to be a temporary pull back before the market goes higher again.

The pair is probably in a short-term uptrend now given the rising sequence of peaks and troughs since it broke out of the range-bound consolidation in August and September. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

USD/CHF will probably reach the target generated after it broke out of the range, at 0.8680, the 100% Fibonacci (Fib) extrapolation of the height of the range higher. A break above 0.8641 (October 14 high) would provide confirmation. A break above that level could lead to a further extension to the 0.8750

USD/CHF is correcting back after peaking as it extends its uptrend. The pair will probably resume its bullish bias after the pull back has completed. USD/CHF is pulling back within its short-term uptrend after peaking at 0.8642 on Monday.

USD/CHF continues rising and might have established a medium-term uptrend. It is likely to continue higher although it is potentially overbought and a downside gap risks closing. 

USD/CHF breaks out of the range it has been straight-jacketed in for weeks. 
The pair has probably started a new uptrend with odds now favoring the acquisition of bullish targets. 
USD/CHF decisively breaks out of the top of its multi-week range, probably ending its protracted sideways market trend. A close clearly above 0.8540 and the range ceiling would cement bullish expectations.  

The move means the pair has probably changed its short-term trend from range-bound to bullish, and since it is a fundamental principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation higher.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

USD/CHF is now likely to reach an upside target at a minimum of 0.8617 (August 14 swing low), or 0.8622 (Fibonacci 61.8% extrapolation

USD/CHF is rising within a range-bound market. 
It has almost reached its target close to the top of the range high. 
USD/CHF extends its gains as it unfolds an up leg within a range-bound market. 

The move is underway and likely to reach the 0.8517 resistance level formed by multiple recent highs. A really bullish move could even see the pair reach the 0.8539 ceiling of the range.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

USD/CHF is in a sideways trend. Given the principle in technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor an extension of this trend. Once the pair reaches its upside target it will probably roll over and begin a down leg towards the range lows. 

Only a decisive break above 0.8539 and the top of the range would signal a change in trend. A decisive

USD/CHF is rising within a range-bound market. 
It has encountered resistance at a cluster of MAs but will probably continue higher.
USD/CHF is rising up within its sideways range. It has reached a cluster of major Moving Averages which are providing firm resistance. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

The trend is neither up nor down but rather sideways and so the oscillating character of the market is likely to extend, given the principle that “the trend is your friend.”

The blue Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator line recently crossed above the red signal line, providing a buy signal. MACD is a more reliable indicator within sideways markets. 

USD/CHF will probably continue higher. A break above the 0.8480 high would lead to an extension up to

Gold rebounds at the end of the week after the release of US PCE inflation data comes out lower than expected. The data suggests a continuation of the Fed’s monetary easing stance which is a positive factor for Gold. 

USD/CHF is trading lower within a range formed since August. 
It is in a sideways trend and a decisive breakout would be required to give directionality. 
USD/CHF continues trading up and down within a range. It is probably in a sideways trend, which given the principle that “the trend is your friend” is likely to endure.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

USD/CHF is currently moving down within the range and it will probably reach at least as far as the 0.8415, the September 25 lows. A particularly bearish move might even fall to the 0.8400 floor. After that it will probably recover and continue the sideways trend. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is below the signal and the zero lines indicating bearishness. 

A decisive break out of the

USD/CHF has been oscillating since late August. 
It is currently unfolding a bullish leg within that sideways trend.
USD/CHF is trading within a range which began forming after the August lows. It is currently rising up within that range in a bullish leg which has reached about the midpoint of the consolidation.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

USD/CHF is not in a bullish or bearish trend in the short-term but rather probably a sideways trend. Since it is a principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation of this trend. This suggests the current move up will probably continue until it reaches the range highs before rotating down and continuing the sideways oscillation. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum

EUR/CHF has unfolded a correction over the last four days. This move now looks almost complete and the bullish prior move is likely to resume. EUR/CHF pulls back in the middle of a recovery rally.

GBP/CHF trades marginally lower as the Pound weakens against the Franc. 
UK employment data was robust and led to GBP rising in its key pairs. 
GBP/CHF fell, however, due to the resilience of the Swiss Franc. 
GBP/CHF edges lower on Tuesday, trading in the 1.1090s as it continues rolling over from the 1.1237 August 19 high. 

The pair weakens despite the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthening in most of its pairs after the release of UK employment data. Although UK wages softened in July, they remained relatively high at 5.1% (excluding bonuses) and 4.0% (including bonuses). 

In addition the UK Unemployment Rate remains at 4.1% which is below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 4.4% forecast. The Claimant Count fell, showing less people signed on for benefits. Although wages

Gold rolls over after retesting key resistance as the outlook for US interest rates remains elevated. This keeps the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold high, making it less attractive to investors. Gold (XAU/USD) trades a quarter of a percent lower on Tuesday after being rejected by key support-turned-resistance at $2,315 late Monday. 

Gold price declines after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data for May, shows a higher-than-expected change in employment and wages.

Swiss Franc is vulnerable as inflation data continues to undershoot official forecasts. The SNB expected inflation to average 1.9% in 2024 in its December forecast, but it currently sits at 1.2%. 

EUR/CHF has rebounded from the 0.9254 December 2023 lows and rallied up to resistance from a key barrier in the form of the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is probably still in a long-term downtrend despite recent strength. 

The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as traders continue to bet on a less-inflationary outlook for Switzerland, supporting a relatively low interest rate policy and dampening foreign capital inflows.