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The Global Debt Trap: Why Capital Is Fleeing the West for Emerging Markets | Eric Fine

Eric Fine, portfolio manager at VanEck, joins us this week to break down the emerging market bond landscape in a wide-ranging conversation covering geopolitics, currencies, and why EM bonds may be one of the most compelling trades of the decade.

Eric explains how recent Middle East events created clear winners among oil-exporting emerging markets, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and how 13 years of data supports the case that EM bonds offer roughly double the yield of developed market bonds at lower volatility.
The conversation also dives into the structural advantages EM countries hold and why these fundamentals are drawing attention from institutional investors and central banks alike.

Eric also shares the story behind VanEck’s actively managed EM bond ETF, the firm’s roots dating back to 1955, and why Europe and Asia represent major growth markets.

Find out more about Eric Fine here: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/eric-fine/?p=1

Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-fine-a395552b

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global-macro-update?utm_source=SYTB&utm_medium=GM&utm_campaign=jm-563&utm_term=260306-eric-fine&utm_content=JM563GM400102

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/

Follow Ed D’Agostino on X: https://x.com/EdDAgostino
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Time stamps:
0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Middle East impact on EM portfolios
1:35 – Energy’s role in the investment process
5:04 – Currency shifts & future reserve assets
7:20 – 13-year trend: low-debt EMs vs. indebted DMs
9:50 – De-dollarization: what it actually means
12:21 – Dollar will share its status, not lose it
14:30 – CNY as a rising reserve currency
17:23 – Are EM bonds still cheap after 2025?
21:55 – The carry case: 6%+ yield, lower vol
25:34 – Why EM fundamentals beat DM
34:30 – VanEck’s actively managed EM bond ETF
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John Mauldin
Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.
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