Does Printing Money Create Inflation?
2024-08-12
The Libertarian Party candidate for governor of North Carolina posed this question on Twitter a few days ago:The question is poorly worded, but that is mainly the fault of the way the term “inflation” has fared in common parlance. Ross probably got the poll results he desired – he was trying to reinforce the idea that increasing the supply of money results in higher prices. The issue, however, is that those who understand that relationship are also usually the ones who think inflation ought to refer to increases in the money supply. For them, the question reads, “Does increasing the money supply create increases in the money supply?” The answer to the question now depends on how one interprets “create” instead of one’s understanding of economic cause-and-effect. Indeed, many of the
Republicans declare war on the American economy
2024-08-10
The 2024 Republican National Convention will be remembered for the raw emotions evoked by an attempted assassination the preceding weekend of its presidential nominee Donald Trump and for the now mostly Trumpified Republicans posing as the populist champions of American workers against the elitist Democrats.This convention, however, should be remembered for another reason too. It marks the entrenchment of an organized “national conservative” movement within the party that espouses an anti-free-market ideology, overtly scorning individual liberty in favor of a powerful nation-state. This shift in Republican thinking is most clearly evident in Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as the party’s nominee for vice president (who recently explained his “NatCon” principles in a Foundation for American
The Fed is warping the shape of the yield curve
2024-08-09
Many commentators consider the spread between the long-term interest rate and the short-term interest rate as an important indicator to establish the future course of economic activity. An increase in the spread is seen as pointing toward good economic times ahead. Conversely, a declining spread raises the likelihood of an economic recession.Historically, in the U.S., the differential between the yield on the 10-year T-bill and the federal funds rate was leading the yearly growth rate of industrial production by 12 months (see Figure 1).Figure 1: Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)A popular explanation for the determination of the shape of the yield spread is provided by expectations theory. According