New Administration Will Target These Sectors | Jared Dillian

2024-11-16

No Crisis / No Stimulus

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-16

Trade War Incoming! ❗

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-15

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Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book, pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. He expects Trump to sign tariff legislation on day one of his second term.

In our interview, Shehzad discusses what this means for US-China relations, along with China’s staggering trade surpluses, and how Europe and emerging markets fit into the looming trade war.

We also cover the truth about China’s real estate crisis and the Taiwan problem. Shehzad says Taiwan might be less interested in defending itself against China than many here in the US would like.

What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Is India the next China? Can China become a consumer-driven

2024-09-20

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Many analysts are pointing to China’s economic woes as a root cause behind the recent slump in oil prices. But Piper Sandler global energy economist Jan Stuart sees softer oil demand stemming from weakening economies in Europe and the US, too. Here’s Jan:

What’s happening is that demand growth… it’s decelerating very fast. … In the data through July, in the case of China through August, the data tell you that there is something going very, very wrong in China. That things are not growing, are in an industrial recession for now, going on year number three across Europe. And that increasingly here in America, things are getting softer on the oil demand front.

Will oil prices recover anytime soon? And

2024-09-13

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The prevailing narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weakening demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down.

The reality is that oil isn’t going away anytime soon.

Josh Young, the founder and CIO at energy investment firm Bison Interests takes us on a world tour of oil-producing nations, explaining why there is “a lot less spare capacity than people think.” That includes capacity from Guyana, which some have called “the next Saudi Arabia.” He also believes the China demand story is overstated.

You will also hear about which OPEC nations might be cheating on their quotas, the nuances in the Exxon v. Chevron dispute, the future of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve… and what

2024-08-09

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did the US cross a line in terms of weaponizing the dollar and denying access to the global financial system—opening the door to other nations losing confidence in the US dollar?

Saleha Mohsin, a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News and my guest today on Global Macro Update, pegs the watershed moment for dollar weaponization back decades earlier, to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. She covers this in detail in her book, Paper Soldiers, which has been one of my favorite geopolitical reads of the year.

We delve further into dollar weaponization in our interview, along

2024-08-02

As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”

I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.

Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors

2024-07-26

Something phenomenal happened in 2001. Humanity generated more information in a single year than it had in all of human history, combined, up to that point. Since then, the amount of information available to us has gone parabolic, as documented by former CIA media analyst Martin Gurri in his fascinating book, The Revolt of the Public.

Gurri explains the effects of this information “tsunami,” which underpinned events from the Arab Spring to Javier Milei’s ascendency in Argentina to the abrupt turnaround of China’s Zero-COVID policies.

The information tsunami has led to a breakdown in the public’s trust in institutions and the elites in charge. Many of us have sensed this happening for years now, but I believe Gurri has done the best job of articulating the nuances of this phenomenon.