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TRADE WAR 2.0: Why Trump vs Xi Will Be Different This Time | Shehzad Qazi

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Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book, pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. He expects Trump to sign tariff legislation on day one of his second term.

In our interview, Shehzad discusses what this means for US-China relations, along with China’s staggering trade surpluses, and how Europe and emerging markets fit into the looming trade war.

We also cover the truth about China’s real estate crisis and the Taiwan problem. Shehzad says Taiwan might be less interested in defending itself against China than many here in the US would like.

What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Is India the next China? Can China become a consumer-driven economy in the near term? Get Shehzad’s take in our interview.

Learn more about China Beige Book here:
https://www.chinabeigebook.com

Follow Shehzad Qazi on X (Twitter) here:
https://www.x.com/shehzadhqazi

Follow Shehzad Qazi on LinkedIn here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/shehzad-qazi-19133655/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563M/YTB

Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/

Time Stamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:32 – Trump tariff outlook 2025
04:03 – Europe-China trade relations
06:28 – Inside China’s economy
09:59 – Xi doesn’t care about the stock market
12:45 – China’s demographic cliff
18:33 – Shifting China-India relations
21:13 – Outlook on Taiwan
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John Mauldin
Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.
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