According to financial analysts and economists, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains bleak. Although they assessed the outlook for the Swiss economy in October as slightly better than a month ago, the index calculated by the major bank UBS remains in the red.
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The UBS CFA indicator, which summarises the expectations of financial analysts and economists regarding the economy over the next six months, rose by 1.1 points to -7.7 points in October compared to the previous month. However, it remains in negative territory for the fifth month in a row, UBS explained in a press release on Wednesday.
The survey therefore continues to indicate a slightly negative outlook for the Swiss economy over the next six months, according to UBS. A deterioration in the economic situation is also expected in the eurozone and the US. However, the assessment of the current situation in the US is much more positive, which relativises the expected slowdown there.
The Chinese economy, on the other hand, appears in a new light: analysts have raised their previously pessimistic growth outlook for China. In UBS’s judgement, this is probably due to the comprehensive economic stimulus package announced by the central bank and the government.
However, if Donald Trump is elected US president, Chinese exports to the US could face significantly higher tariffs, UBS experts warn. This could have a negative impact on the country’s growth outlook.
Interest rates expected to fall
Interest rate expectations have also fallen. For Switzerland, for example, a majority of participants in the survey now expect inflation to fall below the 1% mark in 2025. Short-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US will also fall according to 85% of the analysts surveyed.
However, opinions are divided when it comes to exchange rates. A third of analysts expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against both the euro and the US dollar. This is less than in September. Conversely, around 20% expected the Swiss franc to depreciate against both currencies.
The survey was conducted between September 17-24 and 26 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part.
Translated from German by DeepL/jdp
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