Before anyone gets their hopes up about a reduction in government expenditures resulting from the upcoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), remember that, once rolling, a log rolls in one direction—downhill—until stopped. But have any of us ever tried stopping a log as it accelerates down a hill?
The Log
Ah, the log. Speaking with the voice of a legislator, it blocked your path—your desired line-item, buried deep in a spending bill, which was on its way to being funded, then opposition arose. And, as a legislator, you truly believe nothing should hinder your political goals. You should be free to move—to vote—as you please, and have the results you need to be reelected. But there it is—the log.
You could try to move it by yourself, but that takes effort, which you’d rather spend fundraising. Nevertheless, your donors need you to proceed down the road unimpeded. So you look around for anyone else facing an obstruction and see Nancy with her path hindered by a log of equal size. You decide to partner with her, “I’ll help you roll yours if you help me roll mine.”
Though you sit on opposite sides of the aisle, you now need each other to continue in power. The need for power is greater than consistent, outward displays of fiscal responsibility—or anything, for that matter. It might be that her log was felled by a number of your constituents who did not want her line-item to proceed. However, some of those same constituents—ones with big bank accounts and open checkbooks—are enamored by the ends just past the log blocking your way. In fact, some of your major donors are relying on your line-items to fund investments, sinecures, “jobs,” etc.
Because you need to deliver results in order for campaign checks to be written, you meet with Nancy and discuss a coalition to move both logs at once—she helps move yours and you reciprocate by helping her move hers. You and Nancy apply bars and fulcrums to send both logs off their respective roads and careening down adjoining slopes. All is good. Next year, you will campaign on moving your log and while Nancy campaigns on moving hers, assuming both sets of constituents will not recognize nor remember each of your roles in the other’s efforts.
The Ends
What ends were those logs blocking? Maybe digitized Grateful Dead memorabilia for you; for Nancy, videos of hamster fights. Neither of you really wanted those ends, but your donors do, for whatever reason. And that’s all that counts, politically, anyway. Yet, there they go—logs racing down the hill.
DOGE Enters
However, a new administration has pledged to reduce government expenditures, including pet projects that are nothing less than quid pro quos. You know the DOGE is going to search for wasteful spending and ask you—of all people—for assistance in stopping your log. Seriously, the DOGE is going to ask you to stand in front of your log as it reels down the slope?
Publicly you say, “I’m ready to help, let’s get it done.” Privately, in the Capitol dining hall, you have a different tone. “Nancy,” you say to your lunch companion, “we can’t let this happen. We are still allies, right?” A question that didn’t need to be asked. Of course Nancy is with you, she has donors as well. A nod, a shake, and the deal is once again memorialized. The DOGE can rot, you both are not giving up anything. Also, you and Nancy are not alone, most of the members of both houses—totaling 535 politicians—have coalitions to roll each other’s logs—an entanglement that resembles a plate of spaghetti. The whole system is nothing less than a log-rolling syndicate.
Summary
It’s truly a fool’s errand to ask log rollers to stand in front of their rolling logs and try to stop them. The kinetic energy embodied in a rolling log far exceeds the energy expended to initially move it. Once in motion, a log is going to roll until the slope turns to flat. And the ability to modify the topography, to turn a slope into a flat, is not in the purview of the DOGE—it’s a power the DOGE can never possess.
No, the DOGE is not going to reduce government expenditures until the largess that keeps government afloat is ended—until the system, where government, through the Fed, can create the money that funds the waste is cast aside. Unless that happens in time, the slope will increase until the transition to flat reaches a sheer cliff instead of a gentle run. And—as the log falls over the edge—it will experience increases in momentum and kinetic energy, delivering destruction below.
Any hope in the DOGE will be quickly dashed by the realities of the natures of log-rolling and political inertia. A log—once rolling—will not be stopped, especially by a political system suffering from an inherent inertial resistance to change.
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