China on the Edge of Recession
2024-09-25
China is on the edge of recession — excluding Covid, for the first time since 2008 — as new data showed all-important manufacturing contracted for the fourth month in a row with particular weakness in new orders.In other words, what they’ve got is a backlog, then it’s a cliff.Manufacturing makes up a third of China’s economy — much more than the US. The collapse of China’s property — another third of China’s economy — is adding further fuel to the fire.Offices Emptier than CovidLondon’s Financial Times reports that office buildings in China are emptier than they were during the Covid lockdowns. FT notes that work-at-home hasn’t taken off in China, implying the main driver of empty offices is layoffs.In Shanghai, office vacancies are at 21%. In Shenzhen, China’s central export hub,
Full-Time Jobs Fall Yet Again as Total Employment Flattens
2024-07-19
According to the most recent report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 206,000 jobs during June while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent. Unlike most months over the past year—which repeatedly described the employment situation as “strong” and “a blowout”—the general media narrative for the June jobs report was far less enthusiastic. According to CNN, for example, the June jobs report suggests a “’steady-as-she-goes’ US labor market.Yet, the employment situation has not fundamentally changed from what has been common over the past year. That is, claims of solid, or even “blowout,” gains in employment have been unconvincing if we look at the bigger picture. As we have seen repeatedly over the past year, reporting on monthly jobs